Richmond vs NC State Odds, Props & Predictions for Friday CFB (Sep. 11)
By Ryan Potts in College Football
Published:
- Richmond looks to spring a massive upset
- NC State lost by 26 in its season-opening loss
- Read below for my top Richmond vs NC State predictions and prop angles
Welcome to Week 2 of the college football season. I am breaking down an intriguing Friday night non-conference matchup kicking off at 7:00 PM ET at Wayne Day Family Field at Carter-Finley Stadium.
The Richmond Spiders ride into this one carrying the momentum of a tight 28-21 victory over Howard. On the opposite sideline, the NC State Wolfpack are massive favorites despite showing serious offensive flaws out of the gate.
Finding the best college football player prop best bets requires digging into the raw data. I am looking at the game total and player props to find value in this matchup.
Jump to: Odds | Predictions | Props
Richmond vs NC State Odds
Richmond is +5000 on the moneyline at FanDuel. NC State is a 33.5-point home favorite, with the total sitting at 50.5.
Game odds via FanDuel as of September 11 at 4:24 PM ET.
Richmond vs NC State Predictions
Prediction: NC State 38, Richmond 10.
I expect NC State to control this matchup, but the current 33.5-point spread leaves very little room for a late Richmond score or a second-half clock drain.
The team rushing yardage market at 194.5 also points to a game script where the Wolfpack can lean on the ground game rather than chase passing volume for four quarters. That is why I prefer the total to the spread.
Richmond vs NC State Game Pick #1: Under 50.5
My Under 50.5 pick starts with NC State’s uneven offense. The Wolfpack managed just 168 yards and eight points against Virginia, converting 30.8% of their third downs. I expect improvement against Richmond, but I am not assuming that one easier matchup turns this into an offense that scores on every possession.
I also expect NC State to lean on the run once it builds a lead, shortening the game and limiting late passing opportunities. Richmond’s 30.5-point scoring average came against a different level of opposition; I project the Spiders to finish closer to 10 here. My 38–10 prediction totals 48 points, below the 50.5 line, with the main risk being short fields or late touchdowns.
- Pick: Under 50.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Richmond vs NC State Props
Here are the touchdown prices from my earlier picks, recorded at 2:30 PM ET.
| Player | Anytime TD Scorer | To Score 2+ TDs |
|---|---|---|
| Duke Scott | -220 | +250 |
| Cedrick Bailey | +100 | +600 |
| Joshisa Trader | +147 | +950 |
| Davion Gause | +161 | +1200 |
| Preston Douglas | +167 | +1300 |
| Vander Ploog | +183 | +1300 |
Odds as of September 11 at 2:30 PM ET.
The latest FanDuel anytime touchdown prices are Will Wilson -200, Duke Scott -160, Davion Gause -105, CJ Bailey +115, Joshisa Trader +130 and Preston Douglas +165.
CJ Bailey Passing Props
Passing props via FanDuel as of September 11 at 4:24 PM ET.
Richmond vs NC State Player Prop Bet #1: Preston Douglas Anytime Touchdown Scorer
I am following the heavy market action on Preston Douglas here. His anytime touchdown price opened at a long +430, but sharp money has hammered this number all the way down to +167.
Douglas caught three passes for NC State in the opener, giving him an established role in the passing game. I am backing an offensive rebound against Richmond and looking for that involvement to translate into a scoring opportunity. I am pulling the trigger on this plus-money opportunity. The sophomore tight end is looking for his first career touchdown.
- Pick: Preston Douglas Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+165 at FanDuel)
Richmond vs NC State Player Prop Bet #2: Duke Scott To Score 2+ Touchdowns
When I made this pick at 2:30 PM ET, Duke Scott was -220 to score a touchdown and +250 to score twice at DraftKings. His latest FanDuel anytime price is -160.
My earlier multi-touchdown pick was based on the +250 price. I am counting on NC State to create more goal-line opportunities against Richmond after a difficult opener against Virginia. Given that he is viewed as the most probable player to cross the goal line, getting a +250 payout for him to do it twice is a fantastic angle.
Last season, Scott scored four touchdowns, including a double dip versus FCS Campbell. He also scored against Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.
- Earlier pick (2:30 PM ET): Duke Scott To Score 2+ Touchdowns (+250 at DraftKings)
Richmond vs NC State Player Prop Bet #3: CJ Bailey Anytime Touchdown Scorer
CJ Bailey opened slightly favored at -110 and was +100 when I first made this pick. His latest FanDuel anytime touchdown price is +115.
Bailey led NC State with 33 rushing yards against Virginia, which is the rushing involvement I want for this touchdown angle. Will Wilson scored the Wolfpack’s lone touchdown, so Bailey faces competition for goal-line chances. I am backing his mobility in a matchup where I expect NC State to sustain more drives. I will take the plus money here.
Bailey has 11 career rushing touchdowns: five in 2024 and six in 2025. He has scored in four of six career non-conference* games.
*NC State vs Virginia in 2025 was officially a non-conference game.
- Pick: CJ Bailey Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115 at FanDuel)
Richmond vs NC State Matchup Notes
Richmond brings a surprisingly potent offense into this environment. Averaging 30.5 points per game and 340.5 total yards, they have shown a clear ability to move the chains. The passing offense is working, generating 460 yards compared to 221 yards on the ground so far this year.
Most importantly for our touchdown angles, Richmond boasts a stellar 75.0% red zone efficiency rate. They have converted six of their eight trips inside the 20-yard line into points.
NC State presents a staggering contrast. The Wolfpack offense mustered eight points in its 34-8 season-opening loss to Virginia. They are averaging a meager 168 total yards of offense, split between 92 passing yards and 76 rushing yards.
Their inability to sustain drives is glaring. NC State is converting just 30.8% of their third down conversions, which drastically limits their scoring opportunities and their ability to win the field position battle.
Despite those massive game lines favoring the home Wolfpack, the prop markets paint a fascinating picture. Several names have seen heavy line movement since opening, giving us clear indicators of where sharp money is flowing. I compare the markets on our college football betting page before placing my bets.
Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, combine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
