SMU vs Louisville Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (Sep. 19)
By Eric Rosales in College Football
Published:
- The Louisville Cardinals are 1.5-point favorites against the SMU Mustangs in a matchup of Top 25 teams
- SMU vs Louisville brings together two offenses coming off 50-point performances
- See my SMU vs Louisville prediction, odds and best bets below
It’s one of the best matchups in Week 3, as the Louisville Cardinals host the SMU Mustangs in a battle of Top 25 teams.
Both teams scored at least 56 points in their last outing. SMU beat UC Davis 56-10, and Louisville answered its opening loss to Ole Miss with a 59-13 win over Villanova.
The books currently have the 1-1 Cardinals as slight 1.5-point favorites in the College Football odds against the undefeated Mustangs.
My SMU vs Louisville prediction starts with whether the Cardinals can keep Kevin Jennings off the field.
Kickoff is set this afternoon at 3:30pm ET at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, KY, in a game that will be broadcast nationally on ESPN2.
SMU vs Louisville Prediction
- Score prediction: Louisville 38, SMU 34.
I’m backing Louisville to win by more than 1.5 points at 51¢ on Kalshi. The Cardinals showed the balance I want from a short home favorite, gaining 375 passing yards and 260 rushing yards against Villanova.
That balance matters against Jennings. Louisville can attack through the air without asking its quarterback to carry every possession, and productive early-down runs would help limit the number of chances SMU gets with the ball.
Jennings has completed 40 of 52 passes for 767 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions through two games. He threw for 430 yards in the 27-24 win over Florida State, so Louisville cannot expect to shut him down simply because the competition improves.
The Cardinals’ last defensive performance was encouraging: Villanova finished with 253 total yards, including 75 on the ground. SMU presents a much tougher passing test, but making the Mustangs earn their yards through the air gives Louisville a chance to get the stops it needs.
I expect a close game well into the fourth quarter. Louisville’s ability to produce on the ground is the difference for me, with the Cardinals doing enough to win by a field goal or more.
SMU vs Louisville Odds
Odds as of September 19. Get a Caesars promo code to wager on all college football games.
SMU checks in as a +105 underdog to win outright at bet365, while the juice goes to -105 at FanDuel if you take them on the spread getting an extra 1.5 points.
The Cardinals check in at -118 moneyline favorites at DraftKings, with a slightly better payout of -109 at Caesars if you take them to win by at least two points.
The total is positioned at 58.5 points, with the Under paying out at -108 odds at BetMGM.
SMU vs Louisville Best Bets
- Over 58.5 points (Yes 51¢ at Kalshi):
The over is my other play. Louisville scored 38 points even in its opening loss to Ole Miss, then followed with 59 against Villanova. SMU has shown it can score quickly enough to answer if the Cardinals get ahead.
Jennings needed only the first half to pile up 337 passing yards and five touchdowns against UC Davis. That opponent is a different test from Louisville, but the performance shows why a single defensive stop may not buy either team much breathing room.
A 31-28 finish would clear this total. My 38-34 projection leaves more room, particularly if Louisville’s rushing production forces SMU to bring extra defenders toward the line and creates passing opportunities behind them.
I prefer the spread to adding a Louisville moneyline position. They rely on much of the same game script, and the 1.5-point margin lets the Cardinals cover with any win by two points or more.
Sports Writer & Editor
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
