Thursday College Football Picks & Predictions: Week 11 Best Bets (Nov. 12)
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- Two Thursday night games kick off my Week 11 college football card
- One matchup shows a wide gap between bet count and money
- See below for my Thursday college football picks, predictions and Week 11 best bets for Nov. 12
As Week 11 of the 2026 college football season kicks off, bettors are hunting for value in the college football odds before the weekend slate. Thursday delivers two prime betting opportunities, both on the ESPN networks.
The Memphis Tigers (7-2) enter as road favorites against the South Florida Bulls (6-3) at Raymond James Stadium. Meanwhile, the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (6-3) step into hostile territory as heavy road favorites against the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-7).
We are using prediction market prices, team data and betting splits to find the best value on the board. Here are my Thursday college football picks, predictions and Week 11 best bets for Nov. 12
Thursday College Football Picks & Predictions (Nov. 12)
All picks and contract prices are from Kalshi as of 12:32 a.m. ET on Nov. 12 and are subject to change. Sign up with the Kalshi promo code and get a bonus to use on tonight’s games.
A Kalshi YES price works as an implied probability, so Memphis at 62¢ carries a 62% chance to win outright. The Louisiana alternate spread at 50¢ is a true coin flip, while the Louisiana moneyline at 79¢ is the steepest price on the card.
If you are still choosing a platform, our guide to the best college football betting apps covers your options.
Thursday College Football Week 11 Best Bets
Pick 1: Memphis to Win (YES 62¢)
- Pick: Memphis moneyline (62¢ on Kalshi)
The market prices Memphis at 62 cents to win outright. The college football public betting splits show a wide divide here, with 91.2% of moneyline bets on Memphis but 77.7% of the money on South Florida. That gap is worth noting, but it does not prove which side professional bettors hold.
Memphis still owns the stronger profile in this Memphis vs. South Florida prediction. The Tigers average 37.6 points per game to South Florida’s 25.9. They also throw for 290.6 yards per game, compared to 168 for the Bulls.
Marcus Stokes leads the Memphis passing game with 2,532 yards, 25 touchdowns and six interceptions. Memphis also converts 46.4% of third downs against South Florida’s 37.2%. Those edges support Memphis clearing a 62% implied probability.
Pick 2: Memphis Wins by Over 2.5 Points (YES 59¢)
- Pick: Memphis -2.5 (59¢ on Kalshi)
Targeting Memphis to win by over 2.5 points at YES 59¢ means a three-point win still cashes. Three is a key number in football, so staying under it adds real value to this contract.
Memphis has the balance to build that margin. The Tigers run for 222.8 yards per game, led by Jaylin Carter’s 929 yards and 10 touchdowns. Sustaining drives on third down should keep the chains moving and the clock on their side.
The concern is location. Memphis is 2-2 on the road and South Florida is 4-1 at home, which is why I prefer the shorter margin over a larger one. Before making any bet tonight scan the prediction market apps to find the best price.
Pick 3: Louisiana Wins by Over 10.5 Points (YES 50¢)
- Pick: Louisiana -10.5 (50¢ on Kalshi)
Louisiana is priced at exactly YES 50¢ to clear the 10.5-point margin against Louisiana-Monroe. The Warhawks average just 20.1 points per game and are 0-4 at FMOL Health | St. Francis Stadium this season.
Louisiana will lean on its ground game, averaging 203.6 rushing yards per game to grind the clock. Lunch Winfield leads the team in passing and rushing, with 1,599 yards through the air and 10 rushing touchdowns. The Ragin’ Cajuns also hold a +6 turnover ratio, while ULM sits at -1.
Louisiana’s 1-3 road record is the risk in this Louisiana vs. Louisiana-Monroe prediction. Still, a scoring gap of nearly 10 points per game plus the turnover edge makes a 50¢ price worth buying.
Pick 4: Louisiana to Win (YES 79¢)
- Pick: Louisiana moneyline (79¢ on Kalshi)
Louisiana is the steepest price on the card at YES 79¢, which implies a 79% chance to win. Betting splits show 97.4% of tickets and 94.5% of the handle on Louisiana’s moneyline, so bet count and money agree here.
The data backs the favorite. Louisiana outrushes ULM 203.6 to 138 yards per game and converts 43.9% of third downs to ULM’s 34.6%. The return at 79¢ is modest, so this fits best as a smaller play alongside the alternate spread above.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
