Updated Florida State Next Head Coach Odds: Jimbo Fisher and Glenn Schumann Trade the Lead

• Glenn Schumann and Jimbo Fisher both traded at 40¢ Thursday evening before Fisher slipped again
• Wake Forest extended Jake Dickert on Thursday as his Florida State contract traded down to 3¢
• See below for the updated FSU coaching odds and what changed for each candidate

Nine days ago, it cost 65¢ to buy a contract on Jimbo Fisher returning to Florida State. By Thursday evening, the same contract was available for 28¢. Georgia defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann now costs 40¢, a reversal for two candidates who were separated by 15¢ in Fisher’s favor in our first look at the FSU coaching odds.

Two things changed in Tallahassee this week. Florida State hired the athletic director who will oversee the search, and reporting emerged about Fisher trying to assemble a staff. Elsewhere in the ACC, Wake Forest gave one of the coaches on the original board a long-term extension. Here’s how each development fits with what traders are paying.

Updated Florida State Next Head Coach Odds

Kalshi Yes prices as of Nov. 12 at 7:53 p.m. ET. The middle columns show what sellers asked for one contract. The final column shows what someone last paid. Prices are subject to change.

Why Jimbo Fisher lost his early advantage

Fisher has a case no other candidate on this board can make. He won the 2013 national championship at Florida State, and there’s evidence he wants the job again. USA TODAY’s John Brice reported Tuesday that Fisher had been calling potential staff members. Those calls tell us what Fisher is doing. The question for anyone buying his contract is whether Florida State wants the reunion as much as he does.

Reporting out of Tallahassee helps explain the doubt. On Wednesday, Tomahawk Nation reported that its sources had seen only the kind of due diligence FSU was conducting on other candidates. That leaves room for both accounts to be true. Fisher can be lining up assistants while the school is still comparing him with coaches who already have jobs.

Thursday’s trading shows how quickly that uncertainty matters. At 3:35 p.m. ET, Fisher’s most recent trade was 33¢ to Schumann’s 28¢. Both had last traded at 40¢ by 6:03. Less than two hours later, Fisher’s latest trade was 29¢ while Schumann’s was still 40¢. The evening gap opened on Fisher’s side.

What connects Glenn Schumann and Manny Diaz to FSU?

New athletic director Jeff Purinton spent years at Alabama, where Schumann worked before following Kirby Smart to Georgia. Brice named Schumann among the candidates he was hearing about. The Alabama overlap gives Purinton a way to check Schumann’s work with people who saw it firsthand. Hiring him would still mean handing the program to a longtime defensive assistant for his first head coaching job.

Duke’s Manny Diaz offers a different résumé. He went to Florida State, started his coaching career there as a graduate assistant on the 1999 national championship staff, and has run ACC programs at Miami and Duke. He went 9-4 in his first season at Duke. If Purinton wants someone who already knows both the conference and the job of a head coach, Diaz fits that description.

Diaz also illustrates the risk of reading too much into one price. At 7:53 p.m., one seller offered a single contract at 49¢. The best buyer offered 28¢, and the last deal went through at 37¢. A reader looking only at the 49¢ column could reasonably think Diaz had overtaken Schumann. The trades tell a different story.

Jake Dickert’s extension changes the picture

Dickert’s contract cost 49¢ in our Nov. 3 check. On Thursday morning, the asking price was down to 24¢ and his last trade was 10¢. Then Wake Forest announced a long-term extension at 2:29 p.m. ET. The school cited his 17-5 record and No. 13 CFP ranking. Athletic director John Currie said the timing was intended to put an end to outside speculation.

By 3:35 p.m., Dickert had traded at 3¢. By 7:53, buyers could get a contract for 8¢. His price had already fallen before the announcement, but the extension gives readers a concrete reason to take a move to Tallahassee less seriously now than they did when the job opened.

Rick Stockstill takes Florida State to Pitt on Friday as interim coach. That distinction matters for this market. A winning contract pays $1 if FSU announces that candidate as its permanent head coach before Sept. 1, 2027. The next piece of news to watch is whether Purinton advances a candidate to an interview or an offer. Until then, Fisher’s calls, Schumann’s connections and Diaz’s résumé each tell only part of the story.