College Football Upset Picks Week 11: Best Saturday Underdog Bets (Nov. 14)

• Week 11 college football upset picks target three Saturday underdogs on Kalshi
• A home underdog’s third-down edge could swing a key ACC matchup
• Read below for my top CFB upset picks and Yes prices for November 14

Week 11 of the college football season brings a Saturday, November 14 slate with real upset potential. I’m not chasing every underdog on the board, but I do want teams with a statistical path to win outright, and I flag the biggest risk for each one below.

Three underdogs fit that profile. Cincinnati visits Iowa State with the more productive offense and the better turnover margin, while NC State hosts Syracuse with clear edges on third down and in the red zone. At Kentucky, Florida can lean on Jadan Baugh to keep its offense out of third-and-long.

All three picks are priced on Kalshi, where a Yes contract pays $1 if your team wins. Let’s break down my college football upset picks for Week 11 and why each underdog can win outright.

College Football Upset Picks for Week 11

Kalshi prices as of November 13: Cincinnati and NC State at 2:26 p.m. ET; Florida at 2:57 p.m. ET. Prices subject to change.

Cincinnati and NC State each cost 44¢ to win outright. Florida costs 41¢, the longest shot of the three. A winning Yes contract pays $1 before fees.

Compare these prices with the college football odds and the top college football betting apps before you lock in.

CFB Upset Pick #1: Cincinnati to Win at Iowa State

Cincinnati brings the stronger offense into Ames. The Bearcats average 33.0 points and 446.9 total yards per game, ahead of Iowa State’s 29.2 points and 381.3 yards. The Bearcats also enter 5-4, one game better than the 4-5 Cyclones.

Ball security backs the case. Cincinnati is plus-five in turnover margin with just seven giveaways, while Iowa State sits at plus-two. The Bearcats also convert 47.0% of third downs, compared with 35.0% for the Cyclones.

The risk is Iowa State’s finishing. The Cyclones have scored on all 25 of their red-zone trips, while Cincinnati has scored on 30 of 35 (85.7%). The Bearcats need to finish their own drives and limit how often Iowa State gets inside the 20.

My Cincinnati vs Iowa State prediction favors the visitors on offense, third downs and turnovers. At 44¢, the 44% implied probability leaves room to back the road underdog.

CFB Upset Pick #2: NC State to Win vs Syracuse

NC State is a home underdog in a near-even scoring matchup. Syracuse averages 29.3 points per game to NC State’s 28.9, so the separator has to come from somewhere else. Both teams enter at 4-5, which keeps this matchup tight on paper.

Third down is the biggest gap. The Wolfpack convert 48.5% of third downs, while Syracuse sits at 40.1%. Sustaining drives at home keeps the Orange offense on the sideline.

NC State also finishes better in the scoring area, cashing 29 of 34 red-zone trips (85.3%). Syracuse has scored on 35 of 44 (79.5%).

Turnovers are the warning sign. NC State is minus-one in turnover margin, while Syracuse is even. Still, the Orange have thrown 10 interceptions, so one or two takeaways could flip the possession battle in Raleigh.

My NC State vs Syracuse prediction leans toward the Wolfpack’s efficiency on third down and in the red-zone. At 44¢, that’s a 44% implied probability for the home team with the better drive-finishing profile.

CFB Upset Pick #3: Florida to Win at Kentucky

My Florida vs Kentucky upset pick comes down to what the Gators can do on first down. Baugh has rushed for 836 yards and 14 touchdowns on 160 carries. At 5.2 yards a carry, he gives Florida a way to move the chains without asking its quarterback to make a string of difficult throws on the road.

Kentucky can take that advantage away by getting an early lead and forcing Florida to throw on obvious passing downs. That’s why I believe the Wildcats are the favorites. But at 41¢ to win outright, I’ll take the chance that Baugh keeps the Gators close enough to decide this one on the ground.