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A Star is Born Opens as Heavy Favorite for 2019 Oscars Best Picture

Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga star in
Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga star in "A Star is Born" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
  • Oscar season is here, and odds are out for which film could take home the Best Picture award
  • The Lady Gaga-led A Star is Born has emerged as the early front-runner in this year’s Oscars race
  • The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, Feb. 24th, 2019

With the summer’s blockbusters long gone, movie studios have already begun to fill our screens with headier roles and heavier plot-lines — an annual and tell-tale sign that the Season of Speculation is upon us.

(The Season of Speculation being, of course, that period of time each year where movie studios inundate us with their Oscar contenders, and even the most casual of movie viewers transform into seasoned critics.)


There are still a few months to go before nominations are even announced, but people are talking and odds are already out on which of this year’s films is set to snag the award for Best Picture. The early favorite?  The adult musical, A Star is Born.

Odds to Win the 2019 Oscar for Best Picture

Movie Odds to win Best Picture at BetOnline
A Star is Born +175
Roma +400
Green Book +800
First Man +1000
If Beale Street Could Talk +1200
Black Panther +1400
BlacKkKlansman +1400
The Favourite +1400
Vice +1400
Widows +1400
The Rider +3300

A Star is Born Comes in as the Heavy Favorite

Does A Star is Born deserve all the attention it has been receiving?

Short answer: Absolutely.

There is no denying the star power behind the film, the acting is superb (we can talk later about Lady Gaga’s chance at an Oscar), and the film is currently sitting second only to Black Panther in earnings for the year.

Is it going to win Best Picture?

There are a lot of things to consider here, and popularity is just one of them. Yes, audiences are going gaga for it (pun definitely intended), with many experts willing to put all their Oscar-eggs into one basket.

But, it’s not the audiences or critics who are placing their votes, is it?

Which Contenders Could Steal That Top Spot?

Remember, we began our ‘year’ with Black Panther. Remember that one?

There has never before been a superhero movie in the running for Best Picture, but there is a first for everything.


It isn’t just actors who get to vote for each category; the ‘below the line’ votes (think: all the technical support working on a film) could feasibly push Black Panther into serious contention. There has never before been a superhero movie in the running for Best Picture, but there is a first for everything.

Depending on how next week’s midterm elections go, Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman could also see a jump in popularity. A timely, representative film like that could really show its legs in the next few months.

The Best Bet

A Star is Born remains the obvious film to beat, the safe bet. But, I am willing to go out on a limb here for the long-shot.

My early pick: BlacKkKlansman. 

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An unabashed interest in the lives of other people and all things pop culture makes analyzing the world of entertainment an easy fit for Kaela. One of SBD's resident experts since 2017, she keeps her finger on the pulse so you can feel confident, and have fun, making informed wagers.