Best Bets & Props to Target in Faria vs Alcaraz

• Carlos Alcaraz is a large -1200 favorite over Jaime Faria in Round 2 play at the US Open
• This will be the first head-to-head matchup between the two
• See my Faria vs Alcaraz best bets and props, as well as updated odds below

World No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz is a big -1200 favorite Wednesday, as the Spaniard looks to advance to Round 3 at the US Open as he takes on Portugal’s Jaime Faria.

The key question is not whether Alcaraz has the higher ceiling. It is whether Faria can serve efficiently enough and protect his second serve to keep the match from becoming a steady sequence of break-point chances for Alcaraz.

This one goes under the lights Wednesday night at 8pm ET from Arthur Ashe Stadium at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York.

The match can be seen live on ESPN in the United States, while viewers in Canada can tune in on TSN.

Check my Faria vs Alcaraz best bets, props and updated odds below.

Faria vs Alcaraz Best Bets

• Pick: Alcaraz -6.5 Games (+100 at Polymarket)

Tennis Abstract’s current Elo ratings, updated August 24, 2026, place Alcaraz at 2,146.8 overall and 2,073.3 on hard courts, compared with Faria at 1,798.3 overall and 1,710.4 on hard courts. Tennis Ratio’s 52-week comparison also gives Alcaraz the advantage in service games won (90.1% to 79.8%), second-serve points won (56.6% to 50.9%), return games won (29.7% to 23.9%), and dominance ratio (2.219 to 1.222).

That hard-court Elo gap of 362.9 points supports a controlled straight-set win, which is the match script needed for -6.5 games to cash. Alcaraz’s 74.2% first-serve points-won rate, 67.5% break points saved, and 43.6% break points converted further suggest that he should control the most important points.

Faria has useful weapons, including a higher ace rate of 0.54 per game and a 55.0% tiebreak-win rate. However, he also averages 0.38 double faults per game, compared with Alcaraz’s 0.17, and his 58.6% first-serve accuracy leaves more opportunities for Alcaraz to attack. Faria’s 60.0% break points saved and 23.9% return-games-won rate point to a difficult path against an opponent who applies constant pressure.

Faria vs Alcaraz Props

• Pick: Alcaraz to win 3-0 (-120 at bet365)

The game spread is the preferred option because it offers more value than the heavily priced moneyline while allowing for a decisive but not necessarily flawless performance. The 3-0 market fits the same projected script but carries more risk.

Both recommendations meet the minimum price of -250 or longer. Avoid markets shorter than -250, including the moneyline and smaller game spread, if following the stated betting criteria.

The data point toward an Alcaraz victory, but the -3.5-game spread offers the best value among the primary markets. Avoid the -6.5 and -9.5 spreads, totals, and exact-score contracts unless accepting substantially greater variance is the goal.

Faria vs Alcaraz Odds

Odds as of Sept 1 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.

If you’re seeking other betting options, Alcaraz -9.5 games at +376 offers a much larger payout but requires a dominant straight-set result, making it a higher-variance alternative.

Over 34.5 games at +117 depends heavily on one competitive set or a four-set match. It runs against the preferred Alcaraz straight-set script, so the totals and exact-score markets are best treated as secondary options.

Faria and Alcaraz have no prior head-to-head history on the ATP Tour.