No one wins in a nuclear war. That is, unless you’ve placed a bet on nuclear annihilation. PaddyPower aren’t accepting bets on the end of the world (how would you collect your winnings anyway?) but they have set the odds on some interesting props concerning North Korea.
The “nuclear button” may just be a figure of speech (thank god), but the threat of war between the US and North Korea is very real. What’s in store for the tyrannical authoritarian (the North Korean one), how long will he rule, and will his dream of bringing the NBA to his poverty-stricken country become a reality?
Let’s look at the available odds for all that and more.
Odds on the year Kim Jong-un Ceases to be Supreme Leader
- 2018-2020: +500
- 2021-2025: +450
- 2026-2030: +500
- 2031+: -175
Like his father and grandfather before him, Kim Jong-un considers the role of Supreme Leader to be a lifetime appointment. Kim Il-sung lived to 82 and Kim Jong-il to 70 (both dying of natural causes), so Jong-un, at just 35 years old, probably has at least a few more decades leading the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. That is, unless he’s forcibly removed or killed.
PaddyPower places the North Korean dictator at just -175 odds to remain in power after 2031. That means there is more than a one-in-three chance that Kim Jong-Un is removed before then, according to their oddsmakers.
These are nervous times for Kim Jong-un. Rex Tillerson has flirted with the idea of pre-emptive action against North Korea, Donald Trump has threatened to “totally destroy North Korea,” and the UN recently imposed new sanctions.
There also seems to be a bit of internal struggle. Kim Jong-un’s estranged half-brother was assassinated last year, likely ordered by Jong-un himself. He wouldn’t be the first family member the North Korean dictator has killed.
Odds Trump visits North Korea in his first term: +900
Donald Trump, the self-proclaimed “master dealmaker,” has dismissed the idea of negotiating with the North Korean leader, contradicting his own Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, by tweeting:
I told Rex Tillerson, our wonderful Secretary of State, that he is wasting his time trying to negotiate with Little Rocket Man…
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 1, 2017
He followed up with an extremely vague remark: “… Save your energy Rex, we’ll do what has to be done!”
During a briefing on a completely unrelated topic, Trump turned to a Korean-American intelligence analyst and suggested the “pretty Korean lady” negotiate with North Korea on his behalf. Does that mean he’s willing to negotiate with the North Koreans? As with so many things concerning this president, it’s hard to tell.
Odds North Korea officially bids for an Olympics in the next 50 years: +1000
Goodbye Russia, hello North Korea? Russia has been banned from the upcoming Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, and North Korea will participate for the first time in eight years. North Korea and South Korea will even join forces on the ice by sending a joint women’s hockey team. These are very strange times.
An Olympic bid from North Korea may seem preposterous, but don’t forget that Nazi Germany hosted the Summer Olympics back in 1936.
Odds an NBA game is held in North Korea in the next 10 years: +3300
Very little is known about Kim Jong-Un, but one thing we do know is that he absolutely loves basketball. His good friend and five-time NBA champion Dennis Rodman is currently trying to organize a pick-up game between North Korea and Guam. Who knows, maybe that’ll eventually lead to a regulation NBA game.
Odds Kim Jong-un launches a bid for a Premier League club this season: +6600
If shady Russian oligarchs and human rights-violating Sheikhs can own Premier League clubs, then why can’t a tyrannical dictator?
Newcastle is in desperate need of a new owner and it looks like they’ll accept absolutely anyone who can front the cash. Arsenal fans would prefer literally anyone over Stan Kroenke. Kim Jong-un, lay down your nukes and pick up a different kind of Arsenal.