- The 2023 Academy Awards will air live on Sunday, March 12th
- Early predictions are available for potential nominations and winners
- Who do the opening odds favor winning in the major categories?
In the wake of the highly-touted 2022 Emmy Awards, viewers are already looking ahead to the 2023 Academy Awards slated to take place Sunday, March 12th.
It will be a number of months before nominations are officially announced, but early speculation is underway as far as what actors, directors and films will occupy each category. Anything can change between now and then, especially as more movies hit theaters, but the initial projections could end up being spot-on.
Six months out of the 2023 Oscar Awards, let’s look at who is currently expected to emerge victorious in each category according to the current betting odds.
Best Picture Odds
|Everything Everywhere All At Once||+1200|
|The Woman King||+1600|
|The Banshees of Inisherin||+2000|
|Empire of Light||+2500|
|Top Gun: Maverick||+2700|
|Avatar: The Way of Water||+3300|
|Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery||+3300|
|The Greatest Beer Run Ever||+3500|
|Triangle of Sadness||+4000|
|A Man Called Otto||+5000|
|Black Panther: Wakanda Forever||+5000|
|Decision To Leave||+5500|
|Bones And All||+8000|
|Don’t Worry Darling||+8000|
|I Wanna Dance With Somebody||+8000|
All odds as of Sept. 22.
Babylon Favored to Win Best Picture
It’s always difficult to make an accurate assessment on a film that has yet to be released, but by all accounts, Babylon is expected to be a massive success once it arrives in theaters at the onset of 2023. Its star-studded cast and the heavy hype behind it make the movie an easy contender for Best Picture.
The Fabelmans, a coming-of-age drama directed by Steven Spielberg, is tied with Babylon in the odds at +400 and understandably so. The film, focusing on a fictional telling of Spielberg’s rise in filmmaking, has already won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival and will be released in November.
Of the two, Babylon may have a better shot at winning the award given that it will be released later and will therefore be fresher in the minds of critics. The Woman King, Everywhere All At Once, and She Said are also credible candidates but don’t have the same amount of buzz behind them.
Best Director Odds
|Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert||+1400|
|Alejando G Inarritu||+2000|
|David O Russel||+4000|
Steven Spielberg Favored to Win Best Director
With Babylon and The Fabelmans currently in the lead for Best Picture, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that the prolific directors of each film would be the top two choices for the category of Best Director. What’s interesting is that Spielberg (The Fabelmans) would be favored so heavily over Damien Chazelle (Babylon), especially since Spielberg’s last work West Side Story was released way back when in December 2021.
Spielberg being as notable name as he is may make him the shoe-in for this award. Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Sam Mendes (Empire of Light), and Todd Field (Tár) are also dark horses for Best Director and could conceivably take home the award once their respective films receive more recognition upon their release.
Best Actor Odds
Brendan Fraser Favored to Win Best Actor
Although The Whale isn’t at the top of the odds for Best Picture, Fraser’s performance in the film can’t be overstated for all the accolades and overwhelming praise it’s already received. Fraser’s career resurgence has been beautiful for fans to see after everything he’s gone through in the last two decades and makes him an early favorite in this category.
The question is whether he will be able to maintain this momentum and goodwill by the Oscars in March. The movie being released in December helps his case tremendously and will ensure his odds won’t decrease drastically, but Austin Butler’s portrayal of Elvis Presley in the titular film will give him a run for his money.
Best Actress Odds
|Ana de Armas||+1600|
Cate Blanchett Favored to Win Best Actress
Todd Field’s Tár looks to be a sleeper hit and its lead actress, the incredibly talented Cate Blanchett will have a lot to do with that. She takes to any role remarkably well and Lydia Tár should be be no exception, though the same can be said for Margot Robbie as well.
Robbie receives critical acclaim for most of her roles and, as noted, Babylon is bound to be a blockbuster. Expect their odds to fluctuate once their films become available, while Michelle Yeoh remains steadily in third place for the part she played in the extremely-popular Everything Everywhere All At Once.