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Opening 2023 Oscars Odds: Brendan Fraser Heavily Favored to Win Best Actor

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by Graham "GSM" Matthews in Entertainment

Updated Sep 24, 2022 · 5:37 PM PDT

Oscar statues seen backstage
Feb 9, 2020; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Oscar statues seen backstage during the 92nd Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre. Mandatory Credit: Handout Photo by AMPAS via USA TODAY NETWORK
  • The 2023 Academy Awards will air live on Sunday, March 12th
  • Early predictions are available for potential nominations and winners
  • Who do the opening odds favor winning in the major categories?

In the wake of the highly-touted 2022 Emmy Awards, viewers are already looking ahead to the 2023 Academy Awards slated to take place Sunday, March 12th.

It will be a number of months before nominations are officially announced, but early speculation is underway as far as what actors, directors and films will occupy each category. Anything can change between now and then, especially as more movies hit theaters, but the initial projections could end up being spot-on.

Six months out of the 2023 Oscar Awards, let’s look at who is currently expected to emerge victorious in each category according to the current betting odds.

Best Picture Odds

Film Odds
Babylon +400
The Fabelmans +400
Women Talking +650
Everything Everywhere All At Once +1200
She Said +1300
The Woman King +1600
The Banshees of Inisherin +2000
The Whale +2200
Amsterdam +2500
Causeway +2500
Empire of Light +2500
The Son +2500
Thirteen Lives +2500
Top Gun: Maverick +2700
Avatar: The Way of Water +3300
Bardo +3300
Elvis +3300
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery +3300
Tar +3300
The Greatest Beer Run Ever +3500
Till +3500
Armageddon Time +4000
Triangle of Sadness +4000
A Man Called Otto +5000
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever +5000
Blonde +5500
Decision To Leave +5500
Bones And All +8000
Don’t Worry Darling +8000
I Wanna Dance With Somebody +8000
White Noise +8000

All odds as of Sept. 22.

Babylon Favored to Win Best Picture

It’s always difficult to make an accurate assessment on a film that has yet to be released, but by all accounts, Babylon is expected to be a massive success once it arrives in theaters at the onset of 2023. Its star-studded cast and the heavy hype behind it make the movie an easy contender for Best Picture.

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The Fabelmans, a coming-of-age drama directed by Steven Spielberg, is tied with Babylon in the odds at +400 and understandably so. The film, focusing on a fictional telling of Spielberg’s rise in filmmaking, has already won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival and will be released in November.

Of the two, Babylon may have a better shot at winning the award given that it will be released later and will therefore be fresher in the minds of critics. The Woman King, Everywhere All At Once, and She Said are also credible candidates but don’t have the same amount of buzz behind them.

Best Director Odds

Director Odds
Steven Spielberg +125
Damien Chazelle +750
Park Chan-wook +1000
Sam Mendes +1000
Sarah Polley +1100
Todd Field +1300
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert +1400
Maria Schrader +1400
Chinoye Chukwu +1600
James Cameron +1600
Martin McDonagh +1600
Alejando G Inarritu +2000
Florian Zeller +2000
Gina Prince-Blythewood +2300
Baz Luhrmann +2500
Ruben Ostlund +2500
Darren Aronofsky +3300
David O Russel +4000
Noah Baumbach +4000
Ryan Coogler +4200

Steven Spielberg Favored to Win Best Director

With Babylon and The Fabelmans currently in the lead for Best Picture, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that the prolific directors of each film would be the top two choices for the category of Best Director. What’s interesting is that Spielberg (The Fabelmans) would be favored so heavily over Damien Chazelle (Babylon), especially since Spielberg’s last work West Side Story was released way back when in December 2021.

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Spielberg being as notable name as he is may make him the shoe-in for this award. Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Sam Mendes (Empire of Light), and Todd Field (Tár) are also dark horses for Best Director and could conceivably take home the award once their respective films receive more recognition upon their release.

Best Actor Odds

Actor Odds
Brendan Fraser -160
Austin Butler +450
Bill Nighy +1200
Colin Farrell +1300
Hugh Jackman +1400
Christian Bale +1600
Brad Pitt +2000
Adam Driver +2500
Jalyn Hall +2500
Viggo Mortensen +2700
Tom Hanks +3300
Harry Styles +4000

Brendan Fraser Favored to Win Best Actor

Although The Whale isn’t at the top of the odds for Best Picture, Fraser’s performance in the film can’t be overstated for all the accolades and overwhelming praise it’s already received. Fraser’s career resurgence has been beautiful for fans to see after everything he’s gone through in the last two decades and makes him an early favorite in this category.

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The question is whether he will be able to maintain this momentum and goodwill by the Oscars in March. The movie being released in December helps his case tremendously and will ensure his odds won’t decrease drastically, but Austin Butler’s portrayal of Elvis Presley in the titular film will give him a run for his money.

Best Actress Odds

Actress Odds
Cate Blanchett +170
Margot Robbie +300
Michelle Yeoh +550
Danielle Deadwyler +1000
Olivia Colman +1000
Carey Mulligan +1200
Ana de Armas +1600
Viola Davis +1700
Jennifer Lawrence +2000
Naomi Ackie +2000
Florence Pugh +2500

Cate Blanchett Favored to Win Best Actress

Todd Field’s Tár looks to be a sleeper hit and its lead actress, the incredibly talented Cate Blanchett will have a lot to do with that. She takes to any role remarkably well and Lydia Tár should be be no exception, though the same can be said for Margot Robbie as well.

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Robbie receives critical acclaim for most of her roles and, as noted, Babylon is bound to be a blockbuster. Expect their odds to fluctuate once their films become available, while Michelle Yeoh remains steadily in third place for the part she played in the extremely-popular Everything Everywhere All At Once.


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