EPL Betting – UCL Spots at Stake for Arsenal, City

Arsenal (+177) at Manchester City (+149), Draw (+225)

With Leicester City clinching the English Premier League title last Monday, the only remaining drama centers around the other Champions League spots. The four best EPL squads get automatic entries into Europe’s top club competition. Arsenal (19-10-7, 67 pts) and Manchester City (19-7-10, 64 pts) sit third and fourth, respectively, but could still be caught by a desperate Man United team that has 60 points and a game in hand. City will host Arsenal at Etihad this Sunday (11:00 AM Eastern) and the Gunners can punch their ticket with a win.

Whoever finishes fifth in the EPL still has a shot at reaching the UCL next season, but will have to go through an additional qualifying phase, something that all three squads would like to avoid.

Man City were able to reach new heights in the UCL this year, advancing all the way to the semifinals for the first time in team history. But they failed to score over the two-game series with Real Madrid, falling 1-0 on aggregate. With a stunning 4-2 loss to Southampton sprinkled in between the two matches against Real, the Citizens are winless in their past three.

Now out-going manager Manuel Pellegrini has just two EPL games left in his City tenure in which to turn things around and leave the squad in good shape for next year. Big things are expected from incoming boss Pep Guardiola, but he won’t be able to live up to those lofty expectations if the team fails to earn a spot in the Champions League.

Arsenal were eliminated from the UCL in the Round of 16 thanks to an uber-tough matchup with defending champion Barcelona. But, since falling to the Catalans in mid-March (3-1), the Gunners haven’t lost (4-3-0). Draws against Crystal Palace (1-1) and Sunderland (0-0) don’t look great, but they’ve kept Arsenal looking good for a top-four finish.

Arsenal have won three of the last four games in the series against Manchester City, but playing at Etihad is never easy. I expect the Gunners to play passive, knowing a draw will all but clinch a spot in the upper quartet. That makes the draw good value.

Pick: Draw (+225).

(Photo Credit: wonker (Flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/].)