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2021 Masters Sleepers and Longshot Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Apr 6, 2021 · 6:00 AM PDT

Tony Finau tee shot
Tony Finau watches his tee shot on the second hole during the third round of the Workday Championship golf tournament Saturday, Feb. 27, 2021, in Bradenton, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
  • The Masters tees off Thursday at Augusta National Golf Course in Augusta, Georgia
  • Tony Finau has finished top-10 or better in seven of his past 11 Majors
  • Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays

It’s Masters week, aka the best four days on the golf calendar. The top players in the world, plus a handful of former champions, will tee it up on Thursday (April 8th) at Augusta National, hoping to claim the prestigious Green Jacket.

No player has won this tournament as a debutant since Fuzzy Zoeller back in 1979, and only one player in the last 25 years has claimed the Green Jacket after missing the cut in the previous year. Speaking of missed cuts, Tony Finau mc’d at the Valero Texas Open last week, but don’t let that deter you from backing him this week.

2021 Masters Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Top-10 Odds at DraftKings Top-20 Odds
Tony Finau +3500 +300 +110
Adam Scott +7500 +500 +188
Max Homa +10000 +600 +275
Phil Mickelson +17500 +1000 +450

Odds as of April 5th.

His approach game was still exceptional at TPC San Antonio, and he’s got one of the best track records at Majors of anyone in the field over the last three seasons.


Finau Excels at Majors

Over the last 11 Majors contested, Finau has finished top-10 or better seven times. Two of those results were at the Masters, where he finished 10th in 2018 and 5th in 2019.

He gained a combined total of 19.2 strokes on the field during those two tournaments, and over the past five years he’s gained the fifth most strokes at Augusta National, despite playing the event only three times.

Last week’s missed cut was just a blip on the radar on an otherwise fantastic 2020-21 season. Finau’s already racked up five top-8 finishes this season, including a pair of runner-up results at two of the most demanding tracks on Tour. He finished second to Patrick Reed at Torrey Pines, and lost to Max Homa (more on him later) in a playoff at Riviera.

This year’s Masters is expected to play much firmer and faster than in previous years, and the more difficult it plays, the more I like Finau’s chances of slipping on the Green Jacket.

Pick: Tony Finau to Win Outright (+3500)

Shop Around For Scott

Our next target is 2013 champ Adam Scott, who like Finau, seems to always play well in Majors. The Aussie has never missed a cut at Augusta National, posting a victory and four other top-9 finishes since 2002. He owns 18 career top-10 finishes at Majors, and depending on where you wager, is an exceptional value.

Scott’s odds are anywhere from as long as +7500, to as short as +4900. It always pays to have access to multiple online sportsbooks and this is precisely the reason why.

As for Scott’s game, it certainly looked Major Championship ready the last time he teed it up at the Honda Classic. He gained 7.2 strokes on approach and 10.5 strokes tee-to-green en route to a 13th place finish.

Pick: Adam Scott to Win Outright (+7500)

Homa Honed In

Augusta National is a challenge unlike any other, but there’s an argument to be made to cross reference success here and at Riviera. Former Masters champions Mike Weir, Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson have all won at both tracks since the early 2000’s, which bodes well for the winner of this year’s Genesis Invitational Max Homa.

As mentioned, Homa defeated Finau in a playoff to claim the title, and ranks 14th this season in the FedExCup standings. In addition to his win, he’s also racked up two top-10 finishes in his last five starts, and ranks eighth in this field in strokes gained approach and third in Par-5 scoring over the past 50 rounds.

Pick: Max Homa Top-10 Finish (+600)

Phil Can Still Strike It

Last but not least is Phil Mickelson. Before you fall off your chair in disbelief, check out his ball striking numbers from the past few events. He’s gained at least 2.6 strokes ball striking over his past three tournaments, and although a high finish has not materialized, he’s been knocking on the door of a top-20.

He finished 25th at Honda and 35th at the Players, and has some of the best course history at Augusta of anyone in the field. He’s won three Green Jackets and piled up 14 top-7 finishes. He knows the course like the back of his hand, and a t-20 result is well within his range of outcomes.

Pick: Phil Mickelson Top-20 Finish (+450)

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