2021 PGA Tour BMW Championship 4th Round Odds, Preview and Picks

• Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Cantlay are tied for the lead after 54-holes at the BMW Championship
• DeChambeau leads the field in strokes gained ball striking and tee-to-green
• See updated Final Round odds and analysis below, plus a few bets to target

The penultimate event of the PGA Tour season is shaping up to be a two-horse race between Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Cantlay. The American duo are tied atop the leaderboard after 54 holes at the BMW Championship, three shots clear of Sungjae Im.

Big names such as Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm are within four and five strokes respectively, but it’s going to take a magical round from one of the chasers to steal this title, given how easy the course is playing, and how well DeChambeau and Cantlay have been scoring.

BMW Championship Live Odds

Odds as of August 28th at FanDuel.

DeChambeau was on pace to run away with the lead after back-to-back eagles on the front nine, but a bogey, double bogey stretch on the back nine opened the door wide open for Cantlay to catch up.

Top of the Board

Despite water balls on consecutive holes that lead to Bryson’s slip-up, he still looks like the man to beat. He’s overpowered this golf course all week, driving short Par-4’s and making birdie or better on all but four of the Par-5’s through three rounds.

Back-to-back EAGLES. 🤯@B_DeChambeau rolls it in from 53 feet after driving the green. pic.twitter.com/NNKwmu0xnt

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 28, 2021

The 2020 U.S. Open champ has made 20 birdies and four eagles in total this week, leading the field in strokes gained ball striking, off-the-tee, and tee-to-green. His around the green game, which cost him a shot at victory three weeks ago at the WGC St-Jude, has been much improved and only Cantlay and Abraham Ancer have gained more strokes putting.

We pegged DeChambeau as our favorite pre-tournament play at +2800, and there’s no reason to shy away from him now.

A Sunday showdown is set.

After a back-and-forth back 9, @B_DeChambeau and @Patrick_Cantlay are tied at the top @BMWChamps.

(Presented by @Rolex) pic.twitter.com/f5p5OOeH3I

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 28, 2021

That’s not to take anything away from what Cantlay has done, because he’s played exceptionally well through three rounds. The reigning Memorial champ ranks eighth this week in strokes gained ball striking, and first in putting, while pouring in the most birdies of anyone in the field (23).

However, he can’t overpower the course like DeChambeau can, and he’ll need to continue to ride a hot putter if he’s going to win the title.

He can't help but smile. 🙂

Three straight birdies (!) from @Patrick_Cantlay to take the outright lead @BMWChamps. pic.twitter.com/5jPNhQeB1u

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 28, 2021

It’s possible he continues his wizardry on the greens, but if picking from the top, DeChambeau’s bomb and gouge strategy seems more repeatable and less volatile than Cantlay’s, which is relying quite heavily on the putter.

BMW Championship Live Value Picks

1. Sungjae Im (+1400): He’s flashed a complete game this week, gaining strokes in every key metric, while ranking top-8 in strokes gained off-the-tee, approach, tee-to-green, ball striking, and putting. Im hit 89% of greens in regulation and 86% of the fairways on Saturday, and if he can repeat that formula in the Final Round he’ll have an excellent chance of going really low.
2. Sam Burns (+2200): He opened with a 1st Round 64, and after a mediocre Friday, rebounded on Saturday with a 65. Clearly he has the chops to go low, and much like Im has flashed a complete game this week. Burns ranks second in strokes gained tee-to-green, ninth off-the-tee, and 15th in ball striking. He’s tied for the second most birdies (21), and only four players are averaging fewer putts per GIR.