Upcoming Match-ups

2021 Farmers Insurance Open Odds and Picks

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Jan 25, 2021 · 6:10 AM PST

Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy, of Northern Ireland, plays during the second round of the Farmers Insurance Open golf tournament on the North Course at the Torrey Pines Golf Course on Friday, Jan. 25, 2019, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)
  • The Farmers Insurance Open from famed Torrey Pines in San Diego tees off Thursday, January 28th
  • 2017 champion Jon Rahm is the slight favorite over Rory McIlroy
  • We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

The Farmers Insurance Open always attracts a stellar field as one of the crown jewel tournaments on the PGA Tour, and this year is no different, with Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy the headliners teeing it up. With the Torrey Pines South Course hosting the US Open this June, golfers competing this week could perhaps gain an advantage for the third major of the season later in the year.

Close calls at this event are the norm, with twelve of the last 15 victories being by two strokes or less. For the first two rounds, players will alternate between the considerably easier North Course and the more demanding South Course, with the final two days both on the South. Tiger Woods has won this tournament a record seven times, but he won’t be competing while rehabbing from his latest back surgery.

Foreign born winners have become the norm in recent years, with four in a row and five of the last six champions being from outside the US, with the lone exception being Brandt Snedeker in 2016.

2021 Farmers Insurance Open Odds

Golfer Odds
Jon Rahm +700
Rory McIlroy +750
Xander Schauffele +1300
Tony Finau +2100
Harris English +2100
Viktor Hovland +2300
Hideki Matsuyama +2400
Scottie Scheffler +2900
Patrick Reed +2900
Sungjae Im +2900
Brooks Koepka +3100
Matthew Wolff +3200
Marc Leishman +3300
Adam Scott +3400
Jason Day +3700
Si Woo Kim +3700
Bubba Watson +4500
Gary Woodland +4500
Billy Horschel +4600
Cameron Davis +4700

Odds taken January 27th from FanDuel

Rahm and McIlroy Both Play Torrey Pines Well

Trying to decide between the top two favorites Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy is a very difficult task, given that they both have had strong showings on this golf course. Rahm won his first PGA Tour event here in 2017, then led after 54 holes last year before finishing second.

McIlroy was T-3rd last year and T-5th the year before in his only two appearances at this tournament. The Ulsterman also led the European Tour’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship after 54 holes last week before finishing third, while Rahm had to withdraw from the American Express with a tweaked back.

Both players have been really solid at this track, but is that back worse than a one week ailment? It’s a toss-up between the two, but I’d rather select the potentially healthier golfer in McIlroy at ever so slightly better odds of +700.

Last Five Farmers Insurance Open Winners

Year Winner
2020 Marc Leishman (-15) one shot win
2019 Justin Rose (-21) two shot win
2018 Jason Day (-10) playoff
2017 Jon Rahm (-13) three shot win
2016 Brandt Snedeker (-6) one shot win

Farmers Insurance Open Best Value Picks

  1. Jason Day (+3700): Twice a winner at this tournament in 2015 and 2018, Day also had a runner-up finish in 2014. T-5 and T-16 the last two years in his bids to make it three victories. After an uncharacteristically really poor stretch of events, has righted the ship with a T-7 and T-12 in two of his last three starts.
  2. Cameron Davis (+4700): Bludgeons the golf ball, which is paramount to success at this lengthy course, as he’s tenth in driving distance on tour. At last week’s American Express, shot 66-64 on the weekend to finish in third place. 25-year-old Australian has been knocking on the door more the last few years looking for his first PGA Tour victory. Made the cut in his two showings at the Farmers Insurance Open.
  3. Brandt Snedeker (+15000): Deep dive with huge potential upside. Since 2010 he’s been a force at Torrey Pines, with two triumphs in 2012 and 2016, two runner-ups in 2010 and 2013 and three other top-10’s, including a tie for third just last year.
Author Image

Let's have fun and keep it civil.