F1 Spanish Grand Prix Predictions, Picks & Odds – Madrid Race Preview
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- Track position drives our best bets for Formula 1’s first trip to Madring.
- A five-position qualifying gap creates one of Sunday’s strongest teammate matchup plays.
- Read below for F1 Spanish Grand Prix predictions, picks and odds in our Madrid race preview.
Formula 1’s first weekend at Madring has produced exactly the sort of chaos expected from a narrow, high-speed circuit surrounded by walls.
Arvid Lindblad crashed in FP2. Lewis Hamilton and Oliver Bearman found the wall in FP3. Lando Norris lost nearly the entire second practice session to a gearbox problem, then returned Saturday to take the pole from Kimi Antonelli by only 0.011 seconds.
Passing may prove just as difficult as surviving. Several sections of the circuit funnel the cars onto one preferred line, and drivers have expressed concerns about how closely they will be able to follow. It is Monaco on steroids, except Monaco usually has the decency to let everyone know what they are getting into.
That should increase the value of qualifying position and make the opening lap, pit strategy and potential safety-car periods especially important.
Our model found four wagers for Sunday’s inaugural Spanish Grand Prix at Madrid.
F1 Spanish Grand Prix Odds
Odds from Kalshi ahead of Sunday’s race at Madring. New to prediction markets? Lock in our Kalshi referral code, and see how the top prediction markets price the Spanish Grand Prix.
F1 Spanish Grand Prix Predictions & Picks
Max Verstappen to Win Group 2 (-160 at Caesars)
over Charles Leclerc, Oscar Piastri and Liam Lawson
Verstappen starts third and has already secured an immediate advantage over all three drivers in this group.
Leclerc starts fifth, Piastri starts seventh and Lawson starts eighth. Verstappen must beat each of them for this wager to cash, so any one of the three finding a way ahead would beat us. Still, starting in front of the entire group carries additional value at a circuit where track position may be extremely difficult to recover.
The Red Bull driver also demonstrated competitive speed throughout the weekend. Verstappen finished fifth in FP1, sixth in FP2 and fifth again in FP3 before improving to third in qualifying. He was only 0.140 seconds behind Norris’ pole-winning lap.
Piastri has shown enough speed to be the most dangerous challenger, including a third-place result in FP3. His qualifying session was less convincing. McLaren used an additional set of soft tires to advance him through Q2, leaving only one fresh set for Q3. Piastri did not maximize that final attempt and will start four positions behind Verstappen.
Leclerc starts two positions behind Verstappen and has displayed legitimate pace, but Hamilton separates him from the Red Bull on the grid. Lawson begins five positions behind his teammate and would need to produce a significant reversal of their weekend pace.
Our model projects Verstappen to finish third. Leclerc is projected fifth, Piastri sixth and Lawson eighth. That gives Verstappen at least two positions of projected separation from every opponent, along with the best starting position in the group.
Franco Colapinto over Pierre Gasly (-190 at Caesars)
Colapinto picked an excellent weekend to outqualify his teammate.
The Argentine driver starts ninth after advancing to Q3, while Gasly was eliminated in Q2 and will start 14th. That five-position advantage matters at any circuit. It carries even more weight at Madring, where passing opportunities are limited and one poor restart can leave a driver trapped in traffic.
Gasly held the practice advantage Friday afternoon, finishing 11th in FP2 while Colapinto placed 15th. The gap began closing Saturday. Colapinto finished 11th in FP3 before delivering the stronger qualifying result when it mattered most.
Gasly may also be receiving a little too much respect from the market following his pole and strong overall race at Monza last weekend. That performance was legitimate, but it happened on a completely different style of circuit. The recent headline result may be helping to keep this price from becoming even more expensive despite the separation Colapinto created in Madrid.
This was not simply a case of Gasly making one small mistake and losing a position to his teammate. Colapinto separated himself by five spots and placed several other cars between the Alpine drivers.
Our model projects Colapinto to finish 10th and Gasly to finish 12th. The price is expensive at -190, but the starting-position advantage, expected difficulty of passing and potential market inflation surrounding Gasly support the favorite.
Gabriel Bortoleto over Nico Hulkenberg (+145, BetRivers / +130 at Caesars)
Unlike the Colapinto wager, this is a price play.
Hulkenberg starts 11th, directly ahead of Bortoleto in 12th. He also finished ahead of his teammate in all three practice sessions. On the surface, that makes Hulkenberg a reasonable favorite.
It does not make him a -170 favorite.
Bortoleto was only 0.113 seconds behind Hulkenberg in FP1. The gap was 0.110 seconds in FP2, and both Audis finished inside the top 10 during FP3. There has been very little separating the teammates throughout the weekend.
Our model reflects that. Hulkenberg and Bortoleto both produce a rounded projected finish of 11th, but Bortoleto owns the slightly better underlying rating. This matchup is much closer to a coin flip than the market suggests.
The concern is the start. Audi has struggled with launches, and Bortoleto has joked that he and Hulkenberg may block Turn 1 together. The good news is that both drivers are dealing with the same weakness. Bortoleto only needs to remain attached to his teammate before strategy, tire wear or a safety car creates another opportunity.
At +145, we only need Bortoleto to win this matchup slightly more than 40% of the time to justify the wager.
Give us the plus money.
Alpine over Audi (-130 at theScore Bet)
This constructor matchup may come down to which team can steal the final point.
Colapinto starts ninth and gives Alpine the only car in this matchup already positioned inside the top 10. Gasly starts 14th, while the Audis of Hulkenberg and Bortoleto will line up 11th and 12th.
Audi has two cars sitting directly behind Colapinto, so this is certainly tighter than the starting grid initially makes it appear. However, Madring’s limited passing opportunities should make Colapinto difficult to dislodge if he survives the opening lap and maintains his track position.
Our model projects Colapinto to finish 10th and score one point, with Gasly finishing 12th. Hulkenberg and Bortoleto both carry rounded projections of 11th, leaving Audi just outside the points.
The Bortoleto matchup wager does not conflict with this position. We can cash both tickets if Bortoleto defeats Hulkenberg while the two Audis remain behind Colapinto.
Gasly also gives Alpine a second route into the top 10 if attrition becomes a factor. Audi has two competitive cars and very little separates the teams, but Alpine begins with the most important asset in this matchup: a driver already occupying a points-paying position.
One point could be enough.
Looking for the best places to bet the Spanish Grand Prix? Check out our guide to the top F1 betting apps before Sunday’s race.
Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
