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2021 Valero Texas Open Odds and Picks

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Mar 29, 2021 · 6:09 AM PDT

Spieth swinging
Jordan Spieth hit from the fairway on the tenth hole during the first round of the Texas Open golf tournament, Thursday, April 4, 2019, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
  • The Valero Texas Open from TPC San Antonio in San Antonio, TX tees off Thursday, April 1st
  • Jordan Spieth is the +1100 favorite over Tony Finau
  • We’ve narrowed down the golfers with the best chance of emerging victorious and provided the best value bets below

One week after the world’s best competed at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play in Austin, the PGA Tour heads 90 minutes down the road to San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. This is the final tuneup for players to prepare for the year’s first major at the Masters.

Dustin Johnson was a late entrant into the tournament following yet another spotty week at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, which was won by Billy Horschel. DJ, however, decided to withdraw on Monday, leaving Tony Finau as the only top-20 player in the world rankings competing.

Last year’s Valero Texas Open was not contested due to the COVID-19 pandemic, meaning 2019 champion Corey Conners returns as defending champion.

Going low is imperative for victory at this track, with six of the last seven winners having finished with a double digit under par winning total. The last three winners (Conners, Andrew Landry, Kevin Chappell), have made this championship their maiden victory on the PGA Tour.

2021 Valero Texas Open Odds

Golfer Odds at FanDuel
Jordan Spieth +1100
Tony Finau +1400
Scottie Scheffler +1500
Hideki Matsuyama +1900
Abraham Ancer +1900
Corey Conners +2100
Ryan Palmer +3000
Charley Hoffman +3100
Brendan Steele +3100
Cameron Tringale +3300
Si Woo Kim +3300
Matt Kuchar +4300
Chris Kirk +4300
Keegan Bradley +4700
Sam Burns +4700
Cameron Davis +4700
Zach Johnson +6000
Rickie Fowler +6500
Adam Hadwin +6500
Ryan Moore +6500

Updated odds as of March 29th following Dustin Johnson withdrawing from tournament

Charley Hoffman Loves This Golf Course

With Dustin Johnson taking a pass on this event, it is a totally wide open affair with three of the top four favorites (Finau, Scottie Scheffler, Abraham Ancer), combining for just one PGA Tour victory. A grizzled veteran who could take advantage is 2016 champion Charley Hoffman. He came oh-so-close to double dipping in 2019, when he was a runner-up to Corey Conners to go along with his second place finish in 2011.

In the last 36 rounds at this venue, he’s been absolutely dynamite in several important strokes gained categories, most importantly total strokes gained and ball striking.

Charley Hoffman’s SG Rankings at TPC San Antonio In Last 36 Rounds

Total Ball Striking Tee-to-green Putting Approach Off-the-tee Short Game
1 1 2 2 3 3 10

Hoffman comes in playing well, having made it to the weekend in five straight tournaments, highlighted by a T-7 at Pebble Beach, T-10 at Bay Hill and T-17 at the Players Championship. Given that his odds are at +3100, you’re still getting good value on a player who thrives at this track.

Valero Texas Open Last Five Winners

Year Winner
2019 Corey Conners (2 shot win)
2018 Andrew Landry (2 shot win)
2017 Kevin Chappell (1 shot win)
2016 Charley Hoffman (1 shot win)
2015 Jimmy Walker (4 shot win)

*The 2020 tournament was not contested due to COVID-19 shutdown

2021 Valero Texas Open Best Value Picks

  1. Zach Johnson (+6000): Two-time major champ Zach Johnson has seen a resurgence in his game, as he’s made 14 straight cuts, posting four top-10’s, including a T-8 in his last start at the Honda Classic. Fifth in his latest Valero Open in 2018, and was T-6 in 2014. In last 24 rounds at this stop, he’s first tee-to-green, third in SG: around the green and sixth in total strokes gained. Twice a winner at this event, in 2008 and 2009, albeit at a different course.
  2. Ryan Moore (+6500): Ryan Moore has had a tremendous track record around TPC San Antonio. Third in 2019, seventh in 2018, T-18 in 2017 and T-8 in 2012 in his last four efforts. In the last three years, he’s first in total strokes gained, second tee-to-green, third approach and fourth in ball striking here.
  3. Martin Laird (+13000): The 2013 champion won earlier this season at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, but he’s followed that up by playing some off kilter golf since then. He re-emerged at Bay Hill, as he was in second place through 36 holes, showing his game might not be far off. Made the cut in six of seven attempts at this venue, with four top-20 results. Second in SG: tee-to-green, third in ball striking, and fourth in total strokes gained in last 24 rounds at TPC San Antonio, making him an intriguing long shot option.
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