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2021 Wyndham Championship Best Sleepers & Longshot Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated Aug 10, 2021 · 6:00 AM PDT

Russell Henley tee shot
Russell Henley on the 5th hole during the final round of a PGA golf tournament on Sunday, Feb. 7, 2021, in Scottsdale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
  • The Wyndham Championship tees off Thursday (August 12th) at Sedgefield Country Club, in Greensboro, North Carolina
  • Russell Henley has gained at least 3.3 strokes on approach in each of his last three measured starts
  • Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot bets

The final regular season event on the PGA Tour’s schedule is upon us. 156 players will tee it up on Thursday at the Wyndham Championship, and for many, this week marks their final opportunity to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs.

Big names such as Adam Scott, Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler are just a few of the prominent players either teetering on the playoff bubble or on the outside looking in. While they’ll be hoping for a strong finish just to make it to the Northern Trust next week, other players like Russell Henley will be looking to solidify their position in the Tour Championship.

2021 Wyndham Championship Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Top-10 Odds Top-20 Odds
Russell Henley +3200 +230 +120
Zach Johnson +7000 +600 +280
Hank Lebioda +7000 +600 +280
Ryan Armour +10000 +900 +400
Ryan Moore +10000 +900 +400

Odds as of August 9th at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Henley’s Irons Heating Up

Henley checks in with the ninth shortest odds in the field. He’s racked up three straight top-19 finishes on American soil, and finished 9th at this tournament last year. The three-time winner on Tour gained in every key statistical metric at Sedgefield CC in 2020, firing four consecutive rounds of 68 or better, including a blistering 63 on Saturday.

One of the best iron players in the world, Henley has gained at least 6.3 strokes on approach in two of his past three measured events, and at least 3.2 strokes in four of his past five starts.

In order to challenge for this week’s title you have to be proficient with your wedges and Henley certainly checks that box. From 125-150 yards, one of the most common proximity ranges golfers will face at Sedgefield, Henley ranks first in the field over the past 24 rounds.

Also working in his favor is the fact that the Tour is back on Bermuda greens this week, which is his preferred putting surface. Henley gains an average of 0.35 strokes per round on the field with his putter on Bermuda greens, which is one of the better marks in the field.

Pick: Russell Henley to Win (+3200)

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Johnson Trending Up

Another player who brings scorching hot irons to Sedgefield this week is Zach Johnson. The two-time Major winner is comfortably inside the top-125 in the FedExCup standings, but needs to do some work if he wants to make it past the Northern Trust.

Fortunately for him, his game is trending up. Johnson has gained at least 4.5 strokes on approach in back-to-back starts, and fits this course perfectly. He ranks sixth in proximity from 125-150 yards, and fifth from 75-100 yards (another key range) over the past 24 rounds.

He’s gained the eighth most strokes putting over that time frame, and ranks third in Par-4 scoring on holes between 400-450 yards. That last stat is especially important since eight of the 11 Par-4’s on the course fall within that range.

Pick: Zach Johnson Top-10 (+600)

Top-20 Value Picks

  1. Hank Lebioda (+280): Represents great value in not only the outright market (+7000) but in the T20 market as well. Sure, he burned everyone by withdrawing from the 3M Open after Round 2, but there was nothing wrong with him, it was due to a family issue. His last three results have all been inside the top-10 (8th, 4th and 5th), and he ranks first in the field in Par-4 scoring on holes between 400-450 yards over the past 24 rounds.
  2. Ryan Armour (+400): There are certain types of courses where you can confidently bet on Ryan Armour, and Sedgefield CC is definitely one of them. Armour has finished T25 or better here in four straight years, and is fresh off back-to-back top-6 results at the Barbasol Championship and 3M Open. Over the past 24 rounds, he ranks fourth in Par-4 scoring on holes between 400-450 yards, and 14th on approach shots within 15 feet of the hole.
  3. Ryan Moore (+400): Plenty of motivation for the 2009 champ this week, as he currently sits 142nd in the FedExCup standings. His irons have been hot lately gaining a combined 7.4 strokes over his past two events, and he’s just one start removed from a 2nd place finish at the John Deere Classic.
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