2022 PGA Tour Mexico Open Sleepers and Longshot Picks

• The Mexico Open at Vidanta tees off Thursday, April 28th
• Chris Kirk has intriguing value at +3500 to win outright
• Read below for our favorite sleepers and longshots in the outright, T10 and T20 markets

The PGA Tour is in Vallarta, Mexico this week for the Mexico Open at Vidanta, and the annual tour stop is no longer a World Golf Championships event. With that being the case, the field is diluted, as Jon Rahm is the only top-ten player in the world teeing it up. His odds to win the Mexico Open at Vidanta are incredibly short at +350.

With it being a brand new event, players won’t have course history to fall back on at Vidanta Vallarta. Considering the fact there aren’t many big names competing, golfers who normally would sport outstanding odds as sleepers and longshots now might not be the case. Nevertheless, we have some intriguing players on our card to hone in on.

2022 Mexico Open at Vidanta Odds

Odds as of April 26th at DraftKings

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Chris Kirk Has Been Knocking on the Door

Though Chris Kirk hasn’t quite continued his stellar play in his last three events compared to the three before it, he’s still providing himself chances to win golf tournaments. Before a T-35 and two missed cuts (one that can be mostly excused by playing in the horrific windy conditions at the Players Championship), he went T-14, T-7, T-5 in three straight starts.

His last 24 rounds show that several facets of his game are on point of late, in particular compared to those he’s up against this week.

Chris Kirk’s Strokes Gained Stats Last 24 Rounds

For the campaign, Kirk is ninth in strokes gained: tee-to-green, twelfth around-the-green and 21st in total strokes gained. His last three tournaments haven’t been his strongest with the flat stick, but the three previous to that he was solid in that regard. Should be regain that touch, he’s someone to strongly consider in Mexico.

Pick: Chris Kirk to Win (+3500)

C.T. Pan on Cusp of Big Week

Olympic bronze medal winner C.T. Pan has been quietly putting up decent results, with five cuts made in the last six times teeing it up. Of those, he’s posted a ninth at the difficult Genesis Invitational at Riviera and T-16th at a similarly tough track at the Honda Classic.

In his last eight rounds, the 2019 RBC Heritage winner has put together some rather impressive ‘strokes gained’ numbers.

C.T. Pan’s Strokes Gained Stats Last Eight Rounds

Against this weak field, Pan has an opportunity to push even further and secure a top-10, with just a marked improvement in his putting. He’s certainly striking the ball well enough to be in the periphery of contention, as he’s seventh in SG: tee-to-green in his last 24 rounds, showing a model of consistency.

Pick: C.T. Pan Top-10 Finish (+500)

Top 20 Value Picks

1. Scott Stallings (+300): In two of Scott Stallings’ last three starts as an individual, a top-20 bet on him would have cashed. He was T-16th at the Valspar Championship and T-13th at the Valero Texas Open. His putting was his calling card those two weeks, as he gained a combined twelve strokes on his competitors on the greens. In last twelve rounds, he’s first in SG: short game and second in putting.
2. Tyler Duncan (+450): In five of his last six tournaments, Tyler Duncan has placed 35th or better. That includes his last two, where he was T-12th at the RBC Heritage and T-14th at the team event Zurich Classic. In the last 24 rounds he’s twelfth in SG: tee-to-green and 13th in total strokes gained.