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2022 US Open Sleepers & Longshot Picks for The Country Club

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Jun 13, 2022 · 8:34 PM PDT

Shane Lowry admires a tee shot
Jun 12, 2022; Etobicoke, Ontario, CAN; Shane Lowry hits his tee shot on the second hole during the final round of the RBC Canadian Open golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
  • The 2022 U.S. Open from The Country Club begins on Thursday (June 16th)
  • Shane Lowry leads the field in bogey avoidance over the past 50 rounds, and has finished T13 or better in six of his past eight starts
  • Read below for our favorite sleepers and longshots in the outright, T10 and T20 markets

The good times keep rolling in the PGA Tour longshot betting streets. Our primary selection last week Tony Finau finished runner-up to Rory McIlroy at the Canadian Open, but there was ample amount of opportunity to hedge if you only bet on Finau. Chris Kirk meanwhile, cashed his top-10 prop for us at +400, giving us a fourth winning week over the past six tournaments.

This week, it’s back to Major season. The U.S. Open tees off Thursday (June 16th) at The Country Club in Brookline, Mass, and there’s no shortage of value to be found on the odds board.

2022 U.S. Open Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Top-10 Odds Top-20 Odds
Shane Lowry +3500 +330 +140
Hideki Matsuyama +4000 +350 +150
Keegan Bradley +8000 +600 +250
Luke List +15000 +1100 +450

Odds as of June 13th at DraftKings Sportsbook

 

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Unlike most U.S. Opens, this tournament will not over emphasis driving distance. At roughly 7,264 yards, The Country Club will play about 350 yards shorter than the average National Championship. However, that’s not to say this course will be pushover. There are hazards littered all over the track, and it has some of the smallest greens players will see all season.

And the rough? Well, let’s just say it’s capable of swallowing a golf ball whole.

Lowry’s Game is World Class

With that in mind, our targets this week will need to possess a very specific set of skills. We want players who drive the ball accurately, flush long irons, are wizards around the green, and avoid bogeys at all cost.

Shane Lowry checks virtually all of those boxes and has been trending towards a victory for quite some time. He’s finished T13 or better in six of his past eight starts, including last week at the Canadian Open. He was third at the Masters in April, and two additional top-three results during that stretch.

Over the past 50 rounds, the 2019 Open Champion ranks first in bogey avoidance, second in proximity from 175-200 yards, and sixth in total driving (distance + accuracy). He’s gained at least 1.5 strokes around the greens in three straight starts, and is fresh off gaining 3 shots in that category last week.

Pick: Shane Lowry to Win (+3500)

Matsuyama a Major Value

Next up, let’s target Hideki Matsuyama both in the outright and T10 markets. Matsuyama has a pair of top-10 U.S. Open finishes on his resume, and has gained at least 5.9 strokes on approach in five straight U.S. Opens.

The 2021 Masters champion has won twice on Tour already this season, with a pair of top-eight results in his past six starts. He ranks top-30 in this field in bogey avoidance, strokes gained around the green, and total driving over the past 100 rounds, and 12th in proximity from 200+ yards out.

Matsuyama is usually priced in the 20 to 30-1 range for an event of this prestige, making his +4000 outright odds an absolute steal.

Pick: Hideki Matsuyama To Win (+4000), T10 Finish (+350)

Top-20 Finish Value Picks

  1. Keegan Bradley (+250): Yet another Major champion makes the cut for us. Bradley has been playing some of the best golf of his career lately, posting four top-11 results in his past seven events. He’s a world class ball striker, and ranks top-20 in total driving, bogey avoidance and strokes gained tee-to-green over the past 24 rounds.
  2. Luke List (+450): He has the exact type of game we want to target this week. Ranks top-20 in total driving, proximity from 175-200 yards and strokes gained tee-to-green, as well as top-40 in strokes gained around the green over the past 50 rounds. He won at Torrey Pines earlier this year, which hosted last year’s U.S. Open.

 

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