Best Home Run Picks & Props Today – Three HR Bets for June 9
By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball
Published:
With a massive 15-game MLB slate on the board today, I am narrowing the card instead of forcing volume. My home run portfolio today includes Byron Buxton at 21¢ (+376), Pete Crow-Armstrong at 27¢ (+270), and Nick Kurtz at 29¢ (+245).
Venue context drives the list. Crow-Armstrong gets Coors Field, which ranks first in MLB park factor and is averaging 2.35 home runs per game this season. Kurtz gets an even louder environment at Las Vegas Ballpark, which conceded an absurd 11 home runs in the Athletics’ first game at the stadium last night (a 15-14 extra-innings win for the Brewers). Buxton is the riskier park-factor play at Comerica Park, but his season-long power profile still warrants inclusion.
Home Run Picks Today (Jun 9)
Home Run Pick #1: Pete Crow-Armstrong (27¢) – Cubs at Rockies
Pete Crow-Armstrong is my favorite home run pick on Tuesday because the form and environment both point in the same direction. He has 11 home runs on the season with a .443 slugging percentage and 90.2 mph average exit velocity, but the recent surge is what really elevates him: over his last 10 games, he has five home runs, a .814 slugging percentage, a 1.282 OPS, and a 93.7 mph average exit velocity.
The 27¢ price is not cheap, but it is justified by the Coors Field setting. Denver remains one of the best offensive environments in baseball, ranking fourth in runs per game while producing 2.35 home runs per game. With Crow-Armstrong seeing the ball this well, I am willing to pay the premium for the altitude boost.
Home Run Pick #2: Nick Kurtz (29¢) – Brewers at Athletics
Nick Kurtz is the other bat I want on the card. He has already produced 14 home runs this season with a .521 slugging percentage, .956 OPS, and a massive 94.0 mph average exit velocity. His last 10 games have been even more explosive: six home runs, an .838 slugging percentage, a 1.294 OPS, and a 94.4 mph average exit velocity.
The price is the highest of the three listed picks at 29¢, but Kurtz gets the strongest venue context on the slate. The Brewers and Athletics made Las Vegas Ballpark look like a little-league field last night, combining for 11 homes and 29 runs. Expect more fireworks tonight.
Home Run Pick #2: Byron Buxton (21¢) – Twins at Tigers
Byron Buxton has been mashing all season for the Twins, boasting 18 home runs, a .549 slugging percentage, and a 90.2 mph average exit velocity. He also brings recent power to the table with two home runs and a 92.0 mph average exit velocity across his last 10 games.
This is not the cleanest venue spot, as Comerica Park suppresses power relative to the best home run parks on the slate. Today’s batter-vs-pitcher stats also reveal that Buxton has never faced Detroit starter Troy Melton. Still, Buxton’s season-long pop is strong enough to keep him in the mix at 21¢.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
