PGA Tour 2021 BMW Championship Best Sleepers & Longshot Picks
- The BMW Championship, the second event of the FedExCup Playoffs, tees off Thursday, August 26th from Caves Valley Golf Club, in Owings Mills, Maryland
- Bryson DeChambeau racked up 25 birdies last week, gaining 8.4 strokes with his ball striking
- Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot bets
The penultimate event of the PGA Tour season is upon us as the race for the FedExCup continues. The top-70 players of the season, minus at least Patrick Reed for now, head to Caves Valley Golf Club in Maryland, for the BMW Championship.
Traditionally the easiest playoff event, the tournament played exceptionally difficult last year yielding a winning total of just -4 to world no. 1 Jon Rahm. This week marks the first ever PGA Tour event at Caves Valley Golf Club, and course organizers have lengthened the track approximately 500 yards to accommodate the heavy hitters. It will now play 7,542 yards as a Par-72, making it the fifth longest course this season, and the 11th longest over the past five years.
2021 BMW Championship Odds
| Golfer | Odds to Win | Top-10 Odds | Top-20 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson DeChambeau | +2500 | OFF | +100 |
| Shane Lowry | +4500 | +350 | +130 |
| Corey Conners | +4500 | +350 | +130 |
| Hudson Swafford | +30000 | +2500 | +900 |
Odds as of August 24th at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Naturally distance off the tee is going to matter a great deal this week, something Ryan Palmer confirmed once he got to the course.
Interesting initial thoughts from Ryan Palmer on Caves Valley.
“It’s a big boy golf course, especially as soft as it is…it’s going to benefit a lot of your bigger hitters for sure.”
— Chris Murphy (@CS_Murph) August 24, 2021
Caves Valley also features the 12th smallest greens on Tour this season, and three potential drivable Par-4s. With that in mind, who better to start our betting card with then the mad scientist himself.
Buy Bryson This Week
Last week online sportsbooks hung Justin Thomas at a tasty +2700 price tag, and while he fell just short of the title, he likely had oddsmakers sweating. This week, Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy are both screaming values, and while each will make my personal betting card, we’ll focus solely on Bryson for our longshot picks.
DeChambeau is just one start removed from lapping the field tee-to-green at the WGC-St. Jude through three rounds, and last week racked up birdies in bunches. He carded 25 of them plus an eagle, gaining 8.4 strokes ball striking on the Northern Trust field.
That'll get the crowd going!@B_DeChambeau hops it in for eagle. pic.twitter.com/hlL3KJjTcI
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 20, 2021
Ultimately, a brutal short game cost him a chance to threaten the lead, but we should expect some positive regression. DeChambeau ranks eighth in the field over the past 100 rounds in strokes gained putting, and second in scoring.
He’s first over that same timeframe in both driving distance and strokes gained off the tee, and if you want a first hand look at how significant his length will be this week, check out this video from two weeks ago at Caves Valley Golf Club by the reigning World Long Drive champion.
If you want to see how a "bomber" @KyleBerkshire easily cuts corners and drives over the fairway bunkers at Cades Valley #BMWChamps https://t.co/uFhrCmOksA
— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) August 24, 2021
Let’s not overthink this. We’re getting the game’s best off the tee player at a severe discount, and he just happens to be dialed in with his irons lately. DeChambeau has gained at least 3.2 strokes on approach in back-to-back starts, and if he corrects his short game mistakes, he could run away with this title.
Pick: Bryson DeChambeau to Win (+2500)
Lowry Can Go Low Again
Speaking of scorching hot irons, Shane Lowry comes to Maryland fresh off gaining 7.2 strokes on approach at the Northern Trust. He parlayed that fine play into an 11th place finish, and there’s reason to believe he can improve on that this week.
🐤 on 18 for a Saturday 62 @TheNtGolf! Monday finish coming up here in NYC ☘️🇮🇪 pic.twitter.com/zz3AsWaczP
— Shane Lowry (@ShaneLowryGolf) August 21, 2021
The Irishman has posted four top-10 results in his past 11 tournaments, saving his best golf for the toughest fields. He finished 6th at the Memorial, 4th at the PGA Championship, and 8th at the Players, while gaining at least 1.3 strokes on approach in nine straight measured events.
While not considered a true bomber, he still averages north of 300 yards off the tee, and will be in good shape should he be forced to scramble. Lowry checks in at number seven in strokes gained around the green over the past 100 rounds, and has been positive in that metric in six straight starts.
Top-20 Value Picks
- Corey Conners (+130): We’re not diving too deep for our first T20 selection, as we’ll ride Corey Conners’ immaculate ball striking. The Canadian ranks seventh over the past 100 rounds in both strokes gained off the tee and approach, and finished third in ball striking last week behind only Jon Rahm and Hudson Swafford en route to an 8th place result.
- Hudson Swafford (+900): Speaking of Swafford, he led the field in strokes gained off the tee last week, and gained 5.4 strokes with his irons. Unfortunately, he lost 6 strokes with his short game, but still wound up finishing 11th. If he can continue his strong ball striking and show even the slightest improvement on and around the greens, he could easily find himself back on the first page of the leaderboard.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
