Cubs vs Pirates Predictions, Props & Betting Splits (May 25)

• I predict a Cubs victory based on Ben Brown’s elite strikeout metrics.
• The Under offers strong value despite heavy public money backing a high-scoring outcome.
• I target Brown’s strikeout prop as the top player market edge.

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The Chicago Cubs (29-24) head to PNC Park to open a series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (27-26) on May 25, 2026. First pitch is slated for 1:35 PM ET. The Cubs are on an eight-game losing streak while the Pirates continue to flirt with a .500 record.

In odds to win the NL Central, the Cubs are first (+113), and the Pirates are third (+888). Despite being in last place, the Pirates are above .500 and sit just two games out of the final Wild Card – a spot occupied by the Cubs for now.

I am closely analyzing how the Cubs match up against Pirates probable starter Carmen Mlodzinski. The Cubs hand the ball to Ben Brown. I will break down the data to find the best value for this afternoon clash.

Cubs vs Pirates Predictions & Picks

• Cubs Moneyline (-124, FanDuel)
• Under 8.5 (-125, theScore Bet)

The justification for backing the Cubs stems directly from the mound. Brown has been electric this season, boasting a 2.09 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over 38.2 innings pitched. He averages 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings, spelling trouble for a Pirates lineup susceptible to the punchout.

Mlodzinski enters with a solid 3.96 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. The Cubs’ ability to limit traffic on the basepaths against a Pirates team hitting .249 overall makes them the logical moneyline prediction.

• Ben Brown Over 5 Strikeouts (-137, PrizePicks)
• Ben Brown Over 15.5 Outs (+140, BetMGM)

Staying in line with backing the Cubs, I like these props for Brown. Since becoming a starter, he has cleared five strikeouts in two of three outings. While he has yet to pitch into the sixth, I don’t mind taking my chances with +140 odds on him getting a 16th out.

• Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 Hits (-220, theScore Bet)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 Hits (-231, DraftKings)

I like these legs as add-ons to a potential same-game parlay. Reynolds has 47 hits in 53 games – hitting .251 on the season. He has a hit in 30 of 53 games. Crow-Armstrong has 43 hits in 53 games, posting a .228 average. PCA has nabbed a hit in 32 of 53 games.

Ben Brown vs Carmen Mlodzinski

Both Brown and Mlodzinski are reliever-converts this season. Brown has made 15 appearances with three starts while Mlodzinski has made 10 appearances with eight starts. While Brown has been decidedly better this season, a chunk of the discrepancy can be attributed to a 90-point gap in BABIP.

As starters, Brown has earned an averaged game score of 58.3. Mlodzinski has not fared as well, posting an average of 47.0. Brown has the edge in strikeout percentage by 5.6 percentage points while having essentially the same walk rate.

Cubs vs Pirates Team Stats & Betting Trends

The most glaring mismatch lies in pure contact hitting. The Pirates transform into an absolute offensive juggernaut at home. They lead MLB with a .274 batting average at PNC Park and rank tied for second in home OPS. They generate 5.38 runs per game by stringing together hits and working counts.

The Cubs feature a boom-or-bust profile as visitors. They rank 20th in away batting average (.231), struggling to find consistent gaps. However, they compensate with significant power, launching 1.17 home runs per road game. On the mound, the Pirates hold a slight overall edge with a 3.84 staff ERA.

Key Betting Trends

• The Pirates boast a 19-12 record (61.3%) when playing as the betting favorite this season.
• The Pirates have struggled as an underdog, winning just seven of 18 games (38.9%).
• Over their last 10 contests, the Cubs have posted a 1-6 record (14.3%) as the betting favorite.
• The Under has cashed in just 39.6% of overall games for both clubs this year.

Cubs vs Pirates Odds & Public Betting Splits

The Cubs enter this matchup as slight road favorites on the moneyline at -125. Bettors looking to back them on the runline (-1.5) are offered an appealing +140 payout. Taking the 1.5 runs with the Pirates requires laying heavy -165 juice. The game total sits at 8 runs with identical -110 vig on both sides.

Odds as of May 24, 2026, from Caesars Sportsbook

The moneyline initially opened as a true pick’em with both sides at -110. The shift toward the Cubs correlates directly with the MLB public betting splits. The Cubs have drawn 54.3% of the tickets and a commanding 67.8% of the total handle, prompting bookmakers to adjust the price.

Cubs vs Pirates Injury Report

The Cubs arrive facing a severe organizational pitching crisis with eight primary pitchers on the injured list. Long-term absences of frontline starters like Justin Steele and Cade Horton strip the rotation of crucial stability. This depleted staff places immense pressure on Brown to pitch efficiently and deep into the afternoon.

Conversely, the Pirates enter relatively healthier but miss key offensive contributors. Losing Ryan O’Hearn and Joey Bart diminishes their positional depth. If Mlodzinski limits bats early, the Pirates hold a distinct late-game bullpen advantage.