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PLAYERS Championship Odds, Predictions & H2H Picks for TPC Sawgrass 2024

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in Golf

Updated Mar 12, 2024 · 9:21 AM PDT

Scottie Scheffler celebrates with caddie Ted Scott at THE PLAYERS Championship in 2023
Scottie Scheffler slaps palms with caddie Ted Scott after chipping in for birdie at the par-3 eighth hole of the Players Stadium Course during the final round of The Players Championship in 2023.
  • THE PLAYERS Championship takes place from TPC Sawgrass from March 14-17
  • Defending-champion Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite in THE PLAYERS odds
  • See odds to win THE PLAYERS Championship plus top-ten picks and H2H best bets

Coming off a dominant win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, world #1 Scottie Scheffler heads into THE PLAYERS Championship 2024 as the betting favorite at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL. At +550 to win, Scheffler is head-and-shoulders above second-favorite and world #2 Rory McIlroy (+1200) with third-favorite Xander Schauffele back at +2000.

THE PLAYERS Championship starts on Thursday, March 14, with the final round on Sunday, March 17. The table below lists the odds to win, plus top-five finish and top-ten finish odds for the top 25 players on the board.

THE PLAYERS Championship Odds 2024

Golfers Odds to Win Top Five Top Ten
Scottie Scheffler +550 +140 -140
Rory McIlroy +1200 +320 +165
Xander Schauffele +2000 +400 +210
Justin Thomas +2200 +500 +260
Viktor Hovland +2200 +500 +260
Max Homa +2500 +500 +260
Collin Morikawa +2800 +600 +300
Patrick Cantlay +2800 +600 +280
Hideki Matsuyama +3500 +800 +360
Jordan Spieth +3500 +700 +330
Ludvig Aberg +3500 +750 +360
Will Zalatoris +3500 +650 +320
Russell Henley +4000 +850 +400
Sam Burns +4000 +800 +360
Shane Lowry +4000 +800 +360
Tommy Fleetwood +4000 +850 +400
Si Woo Kim +4500 +900 +400
Cameron Young +5000 +1000 +450
Min Woo Lee +5000 +1000 +450
Wyndham Clark +5000 +1000 +450
Corey Conners +5500 +1100 +500
Jason Day +5500 +1100 +500
Tony Finau +5500 +1100 +500
Brian Harman +6000 +1200 +550
Sahith Theegala +6000 +1200 +550

Five other golfers are between +2200 and +2800: Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, and Patrick Cantlay. Thomas was the tournament in 2021. Cameron Smith, the 2022 champion, has moved to LIV Golf and as a result is not in the field for THE PLAYERS Championship 2024.

If Scheffler manages to go back-to-back at THE PLAYERS, he will become the first golfer to do so in the 50-year history of the tournament. Six golfers won multiple editions: Tiger Woods (2001, 2013), Davis Love III (1992, 2003), Hal Sutton (1983, 2000), Steve Elkington (1991, 1997), Fred Couples  (1984, 1996), and Jack Nicklaus (1974, 1976, 1978).

Scheffler Dominates at TPC Sawgrass Last Year

Scheffler crushed the competition here last year, firing a -17, five strokes ahead of second-place Tyrell Hatton and seven clear of the rest of the field. That was just Scheffler’s third appearance at THE PLAYERS. In 2022, he finished T55 at +2. In his first appearance in 2021, he missed the cut at +2 after the second round.

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By winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, Scheffler recorded his fifth top-ten finish in six tournaments this year and third top-five finish. His only non-top-ten finish this season was a T17 at The American Express  in January.

Hovland Records Back-to-Back Top 10s at TPC Sawgrass

The only player to finish in the top 10 at THE PLAYERS each of the last two editions is world #4 Viktor Hovland. The Norwegian was T3 last year at -10 (alongside Tom Hoge) and T9 the year prior at -7. He missed the cut in his first appearance in 2021.

He hasn’t had a banner start to 2024, but he has been consistent. In four PGA tournaments so far this year, his best finish is a T19 at The Genesis Invitation, but he’s made all four cuts and hasn’t finished lower than T58.

He’s been matched up against Xander Schauffele in the head-to-heads for THE PLAYERS, and that’s a favorable matchup for Hovland at even money. While Schauffele managed a T19 at TPC Sawgrass last year, he missed the cut here three straight times prior. He’s coming off a T25 at the Arnold Palmer.

Shane Lowry Comes in Hot

Irishman Shane Lowry is another player I’m targeting in the H2H odds.  Lowry has recorded back-to-back top-five finishes this season (T4 at the Cognizant Classic and third at the Arnold Palmer) and made the cut in four straight events. He’s also finished no worse than 35th at THE PLAYERS each of the last three years with one top ten (8th in 2021) and another top 20 (T13 in 2022).

Lowry has been matched up against Cameron Young in the H2H odds. Young finished T51 at TPC Sawgrass in 2023 and was cut the year prior, the only two times the 26-year-old has appeared at THE PLAYERS.  He’s been solid on the Tour so far this season, making the cut in all six tournaments he’s played, including two top-ten finishes. But Lowry still crushes Young in Strokes Gained this year (1.268 vs 0.617 overall), holding a significant advantage everywhere except Off the Tee.

THE PLAYERS Championship 2024 Picks

  • Scheffler top-five finish (+140)
  • Hovland (+100) over Schauffele
  • Lowry (-120) over Young 


Sascha Paruk’s 2024 PGA Tour betting record:

  • Top-ten picks: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
  • Top-30 picks: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
  • H2H picks: 2-0 (+1.68 units)
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