Art Collector Now 8-1 Odds to Win Kentucky Derby and Top 3 Contender After Winning Blue Grass Stakes

• The Kentucky Derby is slated for September 5, 2020
• Odds continue to change after Art Collector won the Blue Grass Stakes and Authentic survived the Haskell
• Where can we find value with less than two months remaining until the Run for the Roses?

Often bettors are over impacted by the thing they most recently saw. Recency bias can skew an opinion, and sportsbooks know that. Interestingly, after Art Collector won the Blue Grass Stakes his odds to win the Kentucky Derby predictably dipped, but Authentic’s Haskell Invitational score did not see drastic movement on his price.

Only four races remain with qualification points to the Kentucky Derby. However, in those four races, several horses who can win the Run for the Roses will look to punch their ticket, while others are just tuning up and trying to be at their best come the first Saturday in September.

While Tiz The Law is clearly the favorite at this juncture, and Honor A.P. is a strong second choice, Kentucky Derby odds among the second tier are fluctuating. Where can we find betting value?

With fillies Swiss Skydiver and Gamine now likely aiming for the Kentucky Oaks, and Maxfield, Charlatan, and Nadal injured, let’s look at the top candidates and consider who to wager on.

2020 Kentucky Derby Odds

Odds taken July 20

Favorite: Tiz The Law

There isn’t a lot to knock with Belmont Stakes winner Tiz The Law. The New York-bred won the biggest race of the year at Belmont Park on Long Island, and now will make his final prep for Louisville in Saratoga’s premier event, The Travers Stakes.

A winner of five of six career races including three grade one victories, Tiz The Law’s resume is the best among the Derby field. That said, his Belmont victory came around just one turn, he got an ideal trip, and in horse racing it is really hard to be the best of the lot in the spring and maintain that form in the fall.

Top Contender: Honor A.P

For several months the top two west coast candidates appeared to be Authentic and Honor A.P. They split two prep races and were both seen as top tier contenders. However, Honor A.P. won the Santa Anita Derby, the more recent matchup, and while Authentic won Saturday’s Haskell Invitational, it wasn’t overly impressive. Honor A.P. will run August 1 in the Shared Belief Stakes.

Honor A.P. was a much-discussed Kentucky Derby hopeful late in 2019 but got injured and didn’t run for five months in the fall, winter and early spring. He probably needed the San Felipe, his first meeting with Authentic, and was at his best in the Santa Anita Derby. A win in the Shared Belief and he could go off as the favorite at Churchill Downs.

Other Options: Art Collector, Authentic, Cezanne, Ny Traffic

Art Collector has four wins in eight starts but is three for three this year. His wins were of the minor variety before triumphing in Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes.

While the Blue Grass is a big-time race, it didn’t draw an A-group of entrants this year. That doesn’t take away from a strong stretch duel and victory, and Art Collector does look well suited for a longer race, but the jury remains out on how he’ll run against the top tier candidates.

Never has the proverbial bubble been burst following a victory like it was this weekend for Authentic. He won the Haskell Invitational, but it was tight, and a lot of discussion is taking place about whether he can handle a-mile-and-a-quarter. If the Kentucky Derby were being run on social media or among the media, Authentic would be trending down.

To play devil’s advocate, maybe jockey Mike Smith thought the Haskell was over and stopped encouraging Authentic. His price is very reasonable at 10/1.

If you question Authentic’s ability to go the Derby distance, what about Ny Traffic? He was coming like crazy down the stretch Saturday at Monmouth Park, and never throws in a clunker. That is his third straight runner up, each while facing the very best competition.

If second by a hair to Authentic is a continuation of his close second to Maxfield, who is to say Ny Traffic won’t take one more positive step, and into the winner’s circle in September?

Cezanne is the man of mystery. A $3.65 million dollar purchase who is two for two in his career and has one chance to earn qualifying points and get into the Derby. He’ll either run in the Shared Belief or Travers and needs to hit the board to earn enough points to make the trip to Kentucky.

To a degree, it seems like Cezanne is a little bit late to the party, but give an ultra-talented youngster an opportunity, and with the Derby in September, maybe that is the break he needed to fulfill his potential.

The Bet: Authentic

Odds are going to continue to fluctuate based on the upcoming prep races that most of the contenders will take part in. We’re not believers in Art Collector, and love that Authentic is more or less waiting in the clubhouse. He has run his last race before the Derby. He isn’t going to go down in value because he runs a clunker, and his risk of injury during training is less than in a race. He won the Haskell against two horses that are pretty talented in Ny Traffic and Dr Post, and he has a head-to-head victory over Honor A.P. Authentic is not the favorite, but he presents excellent value.