Belmont Park Odds & Picks Oct 10-11: Jockey Club Gold Cup, Champagne Stakes, Futurity Stakes, & More
- Belmont Park features nine graded stakes races this weekend
- Four grade ones on Saturday are highlighted by the Jockey Club Gold Cup
- What are the best betting values and opportunities this weekend in New York?
The Breeders Cup is a month away and this is the final weekend with prep races for the November championships at Keeneland. Belmont Park has four Breeders Cup Win and You’re In races on Saturday as well, and throughout the weekend there are excellent cards.
Though the Jockey Club Gold Cup field is not numerous, it is strong. The race dates back to 1919 and has been won by champions from Man o’ War to Gallant Fox, War Admiral, Whirlaway, Citation, and more recently Cigar and Curlin.
Let’s handicap the Jockey Club Gold Cup and take a glance at some of the other stakes races this weekend with the goal of finding betting value.
2020 Jockey Club Gold Cup Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tacitus | +120 |
| Happy Saver | +250 |
| Mystic Guide | +300 |
| Prioritize | +500 |
| Name Changer | +3000 |
Odds taken October 8th
The Jockey Club Gold Cup is a-mile-and-a-quarter on the main track. Post time is slated for 4:48 pm EST. It will be televised on Fox Sports 2.
Favorite
Tacitus has been known as a really talented horse who rarely wins while often competing against the best-of-the-best. On July 4 he found a group of manageable opponents and romped.
He followed that up with a second place performance as the favorite in Saratoga’s Woodward Handicap last month. Tacitus has four career wins in 13 starts and has earned just shy of $3 million.
Top Contenders
Happy Saver and Mystic Guide are both three-year-olds who are facing older foes for the first time. Happy Saver is three-for-three and coming off a stakes victory at Laurel Park.
This will be the biggest challenge in Happy Saver’s career thus far, but trainer Todd Pletcher is well versed in moving horses up in class.
Mystic Guide is owned by Godolphin, the stable of the ruling party of Dubai. He has been a hyped horse but won just twice in five tries. Last time out at Saratoga we saw the horse that was promised when debuting earlier this year.
A repeat of the Jim Dandy would make Mistake Guide very viable on Saturday.
Longshot
Prioritize has tried graded stakes company twice. Two years ago he was third in the Hill Prince Stakes at Belmont, and last time out finished third behind Global Campaign and Tacitus in the Woodward Stakes.
This isn’t the strongest field of all time, and if you don’t trust the two three-year-olds and are skeptical of Tacitus, maybe Prioritize has a decent shot at a fair price.
The Bet
Tacitus is the most likely winner but Mystic Guide is supposed to be special and we saw a glimpse of that last time out. Obviously +300 beats +120, so at the very least there is some value.
Pick: Mystic Guide (+300)
Additional Graded Stakes Races at Belmont on Saturday
Champagne Stakes
Unbeaten Jackie’s Warrior is the horse to beat when a half dozen two-year-olds go a mile.
Jackie’s Warrior is looking for a third graded stakes victory in his fourth career start.
Reinvestment Risk was the favorite when he ran second to Jackie’s Warrior in the Hopeful Stakes.
Midnight Bourbon was second in a stakes race at Churchill Downs last time out after breaking his maiden in his second try at Ellis Park.
Pick: Jackie’s Warrior
Frizette Stakes
Three two-year-old fillies who were super impressive at Saratoga meet in this field of seven. They all have the Kentucky Oaks as their long-term goal and a Breeders Cup event as the short-term focus.
Vequist, Dayoutoftheoffice, and Cantata won impressively at The Spa.
In addition to Cantata, trainer Steve Asmussen has Joy’s Rocket running. She won her debut at Churchill Downs, added a stakes victory at Woodbine, and finished second in a stakes event at Saratoga last time out.
Pick: Cantata
Flower Bowl Stakes
An evenly matched battle for girls going a-mile-and-a-quarter on turf includes three runners for top grass trainer Chad Brown. Nay Lady Nay is five for eight in her career, Cambier Parc has five wins in eight starts, and My Sister Nat won a grade three race at Saratoga in August.
If it isn’t one of Brown’s runners, maybe La Signare can score at a nice price. She has been running against top competition in Kentucky and won a graded stakes at Belmont a couple of years ago.
Pick: La Signare
Sunday’s Stakes Races at Belmont
Futurity Stakes
They’ve been running this sprint for two-year-old boys on turf since 1888. This edition feels fairly wide open. County Final has two victories including a stakes win at Monmouth Park.
Country Final finished third in a strong stakes race at Kentucky Downs last time out.
European invader Bright Devil is owned and trained by top connections, Team Valor, Gary Barber, and Mark Casse. He has one win in three races but has raced against top competition in England.
Momos won his debut and finished third behind Jackie’s Warrior in a stakes at Saratoga last time out.
Any of the Wesley Ward trained trio, After Five, Trade Deal, and Gypsy King are viable too.
Pick: Bright Devil
Matron Stakes
This is the sibling race of the Futurity, two-year-old girls going six furlongs.
Magisterium is making her US debut for trainer Christophe Clement after two wins in four starts in Europe. Clement is excellent on the turf and has had success with horses shipping from overseas.
Royal Approval ran twice in Europe before coming to America and debuting with a victory at Kentucky Downs for Ward.
Pletcher sends out Union Gables. She won her first start at Saratoga, and returned to The Spa and finished third in a stakes race.
Fabricate won her debut at Churchill Downs and has been competitive in two Kentucky stakes races.
Pick: Royal Approval
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
