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Improbable Now Listed as +350 Favorite to Win Breeders’ Cup Classic

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in Horse Racing News

Updated Mar 8, 2021 · 10:39 AM PST

Southwest Stakes
Jockey Luis Saez rides Essential Quality to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile horse race at Keeneland Race Course, Friday, Nov. 6, 2020, in Lexington, Ky. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
  • The Breeders Cup Classic will be run November 7 at Keeneland
  • Maximum Security’s loss in the Awesome Again Stakes has shaken up the odds
  • Locking in value now before the Preakness Stakes is run could be advisable

Despite being clouded in controversy, for all of 2020 Maximum Security has been the favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. On Saturday he lost to Improbable and now is no longer the chalk. There has been significant movement in futures prices, and they are well worth pondering at this juncture.

Over the last week or two, and during the next two Saturdays and Sundays, most major Breeders’ Cup contenders have or will run their final prep race. By the time we get to mid-October, all data points will be in, and odds will settle. Getting in now we can project some results and find value.

Current Breeders Cup Classic odds reflect and perhaps overemphasize recent results. Let’s look at the options and discuss some betting strategies.

2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds

Horse Odds
Improbable +350
Tiz The Law +450
Authentic +500
Maximum Security +650
Tom’s d’Etat +800
Charlatan +1000
Art Collector +1600
Benbatl +2000
Code of Honor +2000
Tacitus +2000
Midnight Bisou +2000
By My Standards +2500
Mucho Gusto +2500
Thousand Words +3300
Dennis’ Moment +3300
Cezanne +3300
Owendale +3300
Uncle Chuck +3300
Gamine +3300
Vexatious +3300
McKinzie +5000

Odds taken September 28th at Bet365

The $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic will be run over a-mile-and-a-quarter in Lexington, KY and be televised by NBC. Post time is 5:13 pm EST on November 7, 2020.

Favorite: Improbable

There many be horses who have been as good in 2020, but it doesn’t feel like anyone has been better than Improbable.

He ran second in a loaded stakes race at Oaklawn Park to begin the year, finishing just behind Tom’s d’Etat. Then he won the Hollywood Gold Cup, turned the tables on Tom’s d’Etat winning the Whitney Stakes, and ended September beating Maximum Security in the Awesome Again Stakes.

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Improbable’s ability to storm down the stretch and pass quality horses should bode well in a race that figures to have a lot of early pace.

Top Contenders: Authentic, Tiz The Law, Maximum Security

Authentic and Tiz The Law are both three-year-olds who if they run will be competing against older horses for the first time. Authentic beat Tiz The Law in the Kentucky Derby, and if he wins the Preakness Stakes will likely see his odds shift down.

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Tiz The Law wisely is not running in the Preakness. After starting the year four-for-four including a victory in the Belmont Stakes, he finished just behind Authentic in Louisville and deserves a short rest before the Breeders’ Cup.

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Maximum Security is a year older than Authentic and Tiz The Law, and while his resume is decorated, it is controversial too. Originally placed in a claiming race, where anybody could buy him, he showed incredible ability and went on to win several races before finishing first at the Kentucky Derby before being disqualified. Over the following year, and even a little longer, he won from coast to coast and took the world’s richest race in Saudi Arabia.

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Maximum Security’s owners are still trying to cash the giant check from the Middle East because the purse is being withheld. Servis was arrested on doping charges, and Maximum Security shifted to Bob Baffert’s barn. He looked alright but not great beating two weak fields upon being transferred to Baffert before coming up short against Improbable in the Awesome Again Stakes.

Other Options: Tom’s d’Etat, Art Collector, Thousand Words, Benbatl, Ghalyyath

Tom’s d’Etat finished last year with two graded stakes victories and began 2020 with two impressive wins.

Though he was beaten by Improbable in the Whitney Stakes, the seven-year-old has 11 wins in 19 races and romped to victory in his only career race at Keeneland.

Art Collector and Thousand Words both got dinged up and missed the Kentucky Derby. Art Collector was going to be among the favorites and has won all four of his races this year. Thousand Words cost $1 million, is trained by Baffert, and beat Honor AP last time out in the Shared Belief Stakes. Both horses will run in the Preakness. If they win, their odds will go way down.

Benbatl and Ghalyyath are both European bred horses who have run across the pond and in the Middle East. Both come from among the richest race stables in the world, Godolphin, which is owned by the ruling part of Dubai. Benbatl was third in the Saudi Cup behind Maximum Security, and finished third recently in a major race in England. Ghalyyath has won nine of 13 career races and including four straight victories before finishing second in a top race in Ireland on September 12. Ghalyyath is +1400 at William Hill.

The Bet: Tom’s d’Etat

A big piece of betting races over a month out is making sure the horse you wager on makes it to the event.

Perhaps there is value on the European horses precisely because it is unclear if they are coming and their competition is so strong that if they opt-in their odds will be lower. That is not the case with the horses running in the Preakness. Whoever wins the Preakness is going to become among the Breeders’ Cup Classic favorites. Everybody else is probably not going to run at all. If you like Art Collector or Thousand Words to win the Preakness, put a small futures bet on them to lock in value.

Even if you pick the correct horse out of the Preakness, it is pretty likely Tiz The Law is as good or better than them, and the Breeders’ Cup will be their first race against older horses. Running against three-year-olds is one thing, stepping up to face the best of the best is difficult.

While Improbable is a reasonable favorite, Tom’s d’Etat very possibly didn’t have a full tank of gas after running lights out at the end of June and then coming back on the first of August when Improbable beat him. Tom’s d’Etat will be well-rested and fully cranked in November, and there is value present at +800.

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