Lexington Stakes Prediction & Odds – Will Disarm Earn a Berth In Kentucky Derby?
- Saturday’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland is the final Kentucky Derby prep race of 2023
- Disarm can cement his spot in the Run for the Roses starting gate with a good performance
- Should you bet on or against Disarm? Where is there betting value in bluegrass country this weekend in the Lexington Stakes odds?
The 149th Kentucky Derby is three weeks away. The first race that awarded qualifying points for this year’s Run for the Roses took place seven months ago. Over the past three Saturday’s the highest profile prep races have been run. And now only one remains. Saturday’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland is the final chance for horses to earn the necessary points to be in this year’s Kentucky Derby. We have your Lexington Stakes prediction here.
The Lexington awards 20 Derby qualifying points to the winner, eight to the runner up, and six, four, and two for finishing third thru fifth. In a field of 11, only Disarm has enough points thus far to make Saturday meaningful as it pertains to reaching the Run for the Roses. With 40 points, a third place finish or better will clear the way for Disarm to run in America’s most famous race.
Updated Kentucky Derby odds make Disarm a longshot. If he wins on Saturdays and heads to Louisville, the price is likely to go down.
Let’s look at the odds for the mile-and-a-sixteenth Lexington Stakes, with an eye towards wagering value.
2023 Lexington Stakes Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| First Mission | +300 |
| Arabian Lion | +350 |
| Disarm | +350 |
| Empirestrikesfast | +400 |
| Demolition Duke | +600 |
| Prairie Hawk | +1500 |
| Denington | +2000 |
| Baseline Beater | +2000 |
| Reinvest | +3000 |
| Transect | +3000 |
| Curly Larry and Mo | +5000 |
Post time is slated for 5:16pm EST with great weather expected, temperatures in the 70s and little chance of precipitation. FanDuel TV has coverage of the race.
With a purse of $400,000, the Lexington Stakes is a Grade 3 event that dates back to 1936. Two horses have won the Kentucky Derby after running in the Lexington, Swale in 1984, and Charismatic in 1999. Swale finished as the runner up in the Lexington, while Charismatic won the event.
Let’s look carefully at some of the top Lexington Stakes competitors.
Disarm Is Dreaming of Roses
The son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, Disarm earned all 40 of his Derby qualifying points for his runner up effort in the Louisiana Derby on March 25. Right now the last horse in the field has 45 points. While some Derby contenders may opt not to run, Disarm can guarantee a spot if his connections want it by finishing among the top three Saturday.
Disarm has faced strong fields in each of his four races, and never finished outside the money. His speed figures suggest he is among the strong contenders, but not the clear cut choice. His owner and breeder, Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, and trainer Steve Asmussen, campaigned Epicenter last year. Epicenter was second in the Kentucky Derby, and won the honor as three year old of the year.
Brad Cox’s Barn Is Going Good
Two time Eclipse Award winning trainer Brad Cox won the Derby via disqualification with Mandaloun in 2021. He’ll likely have some combination of Angel of Empire, Verifying, Hit Show and Jace’s Road in Louisville this year. However, he has two horses in the Lexington that we may see in the Preakness, and likely in high profile races this summer.
Both First Mission and Demolition Duke have a win and a second in two career starts, with all four races at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. Both of their loses came to another highly regarded Cox runner, Bishop’s Bay. First Mission lost to Bishop’s Bay by three quarters of length in a February sprint and returned to romp by nearly seven lengths last month. Demolition Duke won his debut by three lengths in a sprint, and then fell to Bishop’s Bay going long by a neck.
Both horses are well bred with lots of promise. First Mission is owned by the powerful Godolphin LLC.
Don’t Forget the Stars
All sports have stars. The odds on Steph Curry and the Warriors to win the NBA title are short, perhaps because we’ve all been watching the last decade. Bob Baffert is not currently allowed to train horses at Churchill Downs, but he is at Keeneland. Baffert is the most successful trainer in the country, having won 16 Triple Crown races.
Baffert sends out Arabian Lion, who has just a single win in four starts. He finished second on the Breeders Cup undercard at Keeneland in November. Since then his two races aren’t great, but he faced top tier competition including Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Joke.
Arabian Lion is a $600,000 son of Triple Crown winner Justify. He’ll be ridden by the top jockey in America right now, Irad Oritiz Jr.
Empirestrikesfast won his debut at Gulfstream Park at +2390. This is only his second career race. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is not known for his horses running big first time out. He often has horses improve dramatically in start number two. A repeat of the race on March 1 may be good enough on Saturday, and anything better would be tough to beat. His jockey is Frankie Dettori, who for decades has been among the best riders in Europe. He is scheduled to retire at the end of this year, but has been riding very well in the USA for most of 2023.
Lexington Stakes Prediction
The five horses mentioned in this article all have reasons to believe in them. It is hard to know which will take a big step forward, and they’ve all run roughly the same at this point. Cox is doing everything right, and the price on Demolition Duke is more than fair for our Lexington Stakes prediction.
Lexington Stakes Pick: Demolition Duke (+600)
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Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
