Louisiana Derby Odds and Preview: Mandaloun Vies for Top of Road to Kentucky Derby Standings

• Mandaloun favored to claim second straight win in this year’s running of the Louisiana Derby
• Proxy, Midnight Bourbon need strong showings to remain in the hunt for a berth in this year’s Run for the Roses
• We’ve got you covered with all the odds and trends ahead of Saturday afternoon’s race at Fair Grounds Race Course

The Road to the Kentucky Derby winds through New Orleans this weekend with the running of the Louisiana Derby on Saturday afternoon at Fair Grounds Race Course. This year’s edition of the Louisiana Derby features three of the top ten horses in the Road to the Kentucky Derby point standings.

Mandaloun leads the way as a +137 favorite after edging out Proxy to claim victory at last month’s Risen Star Stakes. Proxy is listed as a +350 bet to reach the inner circle this time around, just ahead of Hot Rod Charlie, who has vaulted to a +450 bet to claim his first career stakes race win.

Here’s a look at all the odds and trends as the countdown to Saturday afternoon’s post time continues.

Odds to Win 2021 Louisiana Derby

Odds taken at Bet365 on March 19

Mandaloun Gunning for Consecutive Wins at Fair Grounds

Mandaloun will be eyeing the top of the Road to the Kentucky Derby point standings on Saturday afternoon. The Brad Cox-trained colt currently sits third in the standings following last month’s victory. Now set to make a third straight appearance at the Fair Grounds, Mandaloun’s win in the Risen Star Stakes followed a disappointing third-place finish in Lecomte, which he entered as heavy chalk.

Updated Road to the Kentucky Derby leaders (w/ trainer)

1 Greatest Honour (McGaughey)
2 Life Is Good (Baffert)
3 Mandaloun (Cox)
4 Concert Tour (Baffert)
5 Helium (Casse)
6 Weyburn (Jerkens)
7 Essential Quality (Cox)
8 Medina Sprint (Baffert)
9 Midnight Bourbon (Asmussen) pic.twitter.com/xBIe0hGJLR

— Eric Crawford (@ericcrawford) March 14, 2021

Set to start from the No. 6 post with Florent Geroux as his mount, Mandaloun is well-positioned to duplicate last month’s winning effort in his longest race to date. He comfortably handled the nine-furlong run in Risen Star, outpacing Proxy and Midnight Bourbon with a strong finish. Conditions should also be ideal for Mandaloun, with Saturday’s weather forecast calling for mild temperatures and mostly sunny skies on Saturday afternoon.

A Make or Break Race for Proxy

Proxy looks to build on second-place finishes in each of his past two outings. Despite coming up short in each of his two career stakes race appearances, including a second-place finish at Lecomte, Proxy enters the weekend in eighth place in the Road to the Kentucky Derby standings, and his pedigree suggests he is ready for the longer distance at the Louisiana Derby. The Michael Stidham-trained colt was sired by Tapit, a former Wood memorial winner, who has seen his progeny win the Belmont Stakes on three occasions.

👑TAPIT now has 2⃣ sons on the @KentuckyDerby top 20 leaderboard w/ Proxy's runner-up finish in the Lecomte for owner/breeder @godolphin

Plus 👑TAPIT/Godolphin's MG1W & #KYDerby🌹 fav Essential Quality worked 5F today in 1:01.4, likely to make his 3YO debut in the Risen Star pic.twitter.com/Q0dNZMYxmf

— Gainesway (@Gainesway) January 17, 2021

Stidham is hoping that the use of blinkers in Saturday’s race will help improve Proxy’s focus after he struggled to keep pace with the front of the pack early on at the Risen Stakes. While there is no shortage of raw talent and high expectations, a lot is riding on Saturday’s race for Proxy, who can ill afford to a third straight also-ran finish, making him the feat or famine pick.

Fade Midnight Bourbon

The winner at the Lecomte, Midnight Bourbon has work to do to redeem himself after fading to a third-place finish at the Risen Star.

Midnight Bourbon gate to wire in the Lecomte (G3) at @fairgroundsnola! 10 points to the @KentuckyDerby pic.twitter.com/d9TI6O9Dsr

— NYRA Bets (@NYRABets) January 16, 2021

The Tiznow progeny has kept pace on the clock with Mandaloun. But with the Steven Asmussen-trained colt set to start from the No. 7 post, he will likely need a fast start to put himself in a position to compete against the favorites in the stretch run. That has contributed to his tumble to a +500 bet.

Newcomer Hot Rod Charlie a Legitimate Threat

While Mandaloun, Proxy, and Midnight Bourbon are now quite familiar with each other after going head-to-head on multiple occasions at the Fair Grounds, they face a new threat on Saturday from Hot Rod Charlie. While the Doug O’Neill colt has yet to earn a stakes race win, he has still turned in steady results against top-flight competition. Hot Rod Charlie was unable to make up ground following a tough start last time out at the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

“We love the spacing and of course the distance. I love the long stretch there at the Fair Grounds and the million-dollar purse doesn’t hurt either. A lot of it was the timing too." @DougONeill1 on @TwinSpires Louisiana Derby contender Hot Rod Charlie 📸 @horsetoheart pic.twitter.com/6fE1ZKKZgB

— Fair Grounds (@fairgroundsnola) March 18, 2021

However, he ran a steady race at the Breeders Cup Juvenile, finishing a close second to the favorite in the Kentucky Derby odds, Essential Quality. His top TimeformUS numbers are also comparable to Mandaloun, Proxy, and Midnight Bourbon, making him a legitimate threat to race to victory from the No. 5 post on Saturday afternoon.

The Pick: Hot Rod Charlie (+450)