Odds for Kentucky Derby & Expert Picks, Predictions for 2025

• The 2025 Kentucky Derby gets underway on Saturday, May 3rd
• Journalism is currently the +250 favorite
• Find all the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, predictions, and my expert picks, below

The 151st Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 3rd, from Churchill Downs racetrack in Louisville, Kentucky. Journalism enters the “Run for the Roses” as a +225 favorite, followed by Sovereignty (+450), Luxor Cafe (+800), Burnham Square (+850), and Sandman (+850).

The 2025 Kentucky Derby has a post time of 6:57 pm ET on Saturday on NBC and Peacock. Get your bets in before these odds fall, and don’t miss the fastest two minutes in sports.

Dive into the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, with all my analysis and best bets, below.

2025 Kentucky Derby Odds

Santa Anita Derby-winner Journalism is the +250 favorite in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, followed by Sovereignty at +500. Luxor Cafe and Sandman are co-third-favorites at +800.

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Odds as of May 1st at FanDuel. Find the top sports betting bonus codes for your horse racing action.

2025 Kentucky Derby Best Bet: Luxor Cafe +800

Sired by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Luxor Cafe has been putting on a show on the horse racing circuit in Japan. His pedigree and pace are more than good enough to win the “Run for the Roses”. The Kentucky-bred Colt came from behind to win Fukuryu Stakes by five lengths, flying around the final corner to decimate his competition. Before that, Luxor Cafe dominated fellow Kentucky Derby contender Admire Daytona at the Hyacinth Stakes, beating the UAE Derby winner by 10 lengths.

Crucially, Luxor Cafe finished the final three-eighths on that race in a sparkling 36.51 seconds. It’s important to note, 10 of the last 13, and 20 of the last 27 Kentucky Derby winners have finished the final three-eighths of their last prep race in under 38 seconds.

Now, the Japanese starts won’t have any Beyer Speed scores associated to them. However, his fastest performances line up well with the fastest horses in the Kentucky Derby field. Look for Luxor Cafe to unleash his explosive acceleration and win the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

Best Kentucky Derby Value Bet: Burnham Square +1000

While he’s not the flashiest name on the betting board, Burnham Square is a well-rounded 2025 Kentucky Derby contender. While he’ll enter the Run for the Roses flying a bit under the radar, his racing profile screams classic contender.

Burnham Square has been bred to run at this distance, and has posted six dirt starts already in this career. He has the pedigree, speed, and closing ability that is vital to winning the 20-horse stampede that is the Kentucky Derby. The colt won the Grade 3 2025 Holy Bull Stakes in February before finishing off his final prep race in fine form and taking home the victory in the Grade 1 Blue Grass, while defeating fellow Derby runner East Avenue.

Sired by Breeders Cup Mile winner Liam’s Map, Burnham Square has the advantage of Churchill Downs experience. On top of that, jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. frequently races on the track, and piloted last year’s winner, Mystik Dan, to victory. Hernandez’s Derby success will be a huge advantage, as Burnham Square has shown he can either stalk the pace, or pounce as a late-runner on the final stretch. He’s also more than capable of handling the traffic that inevitably arises in the Kentucky Derby.

At +1000 odds, Burnham Square is a battle-tested Kentucky Derby sleeper. He checks all the boxes as a classic upset winner.

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