Opening Preakness Stakes Odds Favor Mage, Forte & First Mission

• In less that two weeks, Pimlico Race Course will host the The Second Jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes
• The top finishing horses in the Kentucky Derby are the early favorites
• See the opening Preakness Stakes 2023 odds plus early value picks

Was the biggest story surrounding the Kentucky Derby the upset win by Mage, or the number of horses who scratched prior to post time?

While owners and trainers are deliberating about whether to send their horses to Baltimore for the Preakness Stakes on May 20, you better believe Run for the Roses champ Mage will be present, and this year more than any in recent memory there is potential for a robust group of challengers.

As we count down to the run for Black-Eyed Susans, let’s look carefully and evaluate the opening Preakness Stakes odds.

2023 Preakness Stakes Odds

Odds as of May 7.

Each of the last three years the Preakness Stakes winner did not compete in the Kentucky Derby. This is primarily because in modern horse racing trainers like to adequently rest and rehabilitate their investements after the biggest and longest race of their life. With a very quick turnaround between the Run for the Roses and the Preakness, aside from the Derby winner, a couple of horses that performed well, and a one or two that felt that they didn’t get a great trip in Louisville, most opt for the Belmont Stakes are something in June or July.

With this year’s Kentucky Derby favorite Forte scratched on the day of the race, he becomes a very intriguing option in Baltimore. However, trainer Todd Pletcher has often been reluctant to send horses to the Preakness. The other horses who scratched out of the Derby, Continuar, Lord Miles, Practical Move, and Skinner, could also give it a go.

In addition to the horses who planned on running in the Derby, and now may give the Preakness a shot, trainer Bob Baffert could be a factor. He is banned from Churchill Downs after Medina Spirit was disqualified from the 2021 Kentucky Derby after testing postive for a banned substance. However, he is welcome in Baltimore, and has hinted he could send National Treasure or another contender.

Finally, the lightly raced but very impressive First Mission would get serious play if he is in the Preakness. Like Mage, First Mission did not run as a two year old. However, his last two races are terrific, and in the Preakness Futures Pool that closed right before the Kentucky Derby began, he was the second choice.

Let’s break down the Derby with an eye towards leg two.

The Run for the Roses

After the 2022 Kentucky Derby had the fastest opening quarter mile in race history, most experts predicted 2023 would see the reverse. Incorrect. Again they ran very fast early, and that set up the closers to race for glory down the stretch.

Running in only his fourth race, Mage not only won, but may still have upside. That said, he got a great trip and took advantage of the early pace.

Two Phil’s took the shortest route around the track, near the rail, but somehow was both close to the hot tempo and survived to lead with a quarter mile to go, and hold on for second. The shorter Preakness, with fewer horses and likely a slower pace, could be perfect for him.

Angel of Empire is going to get a lot of love for his strong finish in Louisville, and deservedly so. However, he was the biggest beneficiary of the pace. To his credit, the favorite ran on strong, but does he profile more as a Belmont horse, running a-mile-and-a-quarter than a Preakness runner, with the tight turns at Pimlico?

Preakness Pace Scenario

It is very typical that the Kentucky Derby, with 20 horses, has at least a couple that are overager and that sets up a fast tempo that benefits closers. The Preakness is often just the opposite, fewer horses, and speed can hold. Last year Early Voting was second early, passed in the stretch and won easily.

Baffert has won the Preakness seven times. Depending upon the competition, it wouldn’t be shocking to see National Treasure forwardly placed. Though he has just one win in five tries, he’s never been worse than fourth and has finished in the money on four occassions.

First Mission likes to be near the front, and if his next race looks anything like his latest run, he will be dangerous.

First Mission’s dad, Street Sense, won the Kentucky Derby. His trainer Brad Cox is among the best in the business. His owners Godolphin, are perhaps the best in the world.

Down the Stretch They Come

If Forte runs, he’s a deep closer. That said, he had the more difficult trip in the Florida Derby, and still beat Mage.

Skinner on paper is a rapidly improving horse, but he too likes to come from the rear, and wasn’t exactly flattered by Mandarin Hero’s effort in the Kentucky Derby.

As it pertains to betting on Preakness futures, consider pace and quality, but also who is likely to run. The Kentucky Derby usually has a full field and everyone wants to get in. Owners are more reluctant about Pimlico. Locking in value is obviously about picking a talented fast horse, and you can get value, because a lot of the contenders will pass on the event. If you have a pretty good idea that one of your top choices will be in the field, fire away, you’re ahead of the game.