2019 AL East Odds: Yankees Given Slight Edge Over Red Sox
- The Red Sox won the AL East last year with 108 wins.
- Despite winning the World Series, New York is favored to win the AL East over Boston in 2019?
- Is there anyone else worth considering in the division?
The AL East, historically, has been owned by two teams: the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees.
Last year they were two of three teams in the American League with 100 wins. They met in the ALDS, with the Sox winning in four games.
They have the deepest rosters in the division and plenty of power. Can they be topped?
2019 American League East Odds
| Team | 2018 Record | 2019 AL East odds |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 100-62 | +140 |
| Boston Red Sox | 108-54 | +150 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 90-72 | +500 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 73-89 | +1000 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 47-115 | +2500 |
Blue Jays no threat in AL East
When the two heavy hitters in the division are literally heavy hitters, and you don’t have the pitching to stack up? It’s going to be a long season.
Blue Jays Key Offseason Additions and Subtractions
| Additions | Subtractions |
|---|---|
| Freddy Galvis, INF | Marco Estrada, SP |
| Matt Shoemaker, SP | Russell Martin, C |
| Clayton Richard, SP | Troy Tulowitzki, SS |
| Yangervis Solarte, INF |
The Jays have the better front end with Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman, but they have to be healthy. Behind them, it’ll be a mix of Shoemaker and Richard, or Ryan Borucki and Sam Gaviglio.
Let’s be honest. Everyone’s just sitting around waiting for Vlad Guerrero Jr. to show up.
Jays GM Ross Atkins said that spring training will help determine the timing of Vlad Guerrero Jr.s major league debut. “This is an important part of his development.”
— Rob Longley (@longleysunsport) February 14, 2019
The Jays have no value in this race.
Orioles Rebuilding Amid AL East Power Race
In Baltimore, Andrew Cashner has to be better this year by default. Same with Dylan Bundy. But it’s not enough to propel them to the top of the division.
Orioles Key Offseason Additions and Subtractions
| Additions | Subtractions |
|---|---|
| Nate Karns, SP | Adam Jones, OF |
| Alcides Escobar, SS | Caleb Joseph, C |
| Tim Beckham, INF |
Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis provide the meat of the offense. And if 2019 Chris Davis is anything like 2018 Chris Davis…or 2017 Chris Davis…
A quick round of Chris Davis BP, scored by Yellowcard. pic.twitter.com/M27L2rvP0F
— Jon Meoli (@JonMeoli) February 19, 2019
Well, you get the picture.
Rays Offer Intrigue in AL East
The Rays are a bit of a dark horse.
Rays Key Offseason Additions and Subtractions
| Additions | Subtractions |
|---|---|
| Mike Zunino, C | Carlos Gomez, OF |
| Charlie Morton, SP | Sergio Romo, RP |
| Yandy Diaz, INF | Mallex Smith, OF |
| Guillermo Heredia, OF | CJ Cron, 1B |
| Avisail Garcia, OF | Jesus Sucre, C |
Mike Zunino gives them the second-best catcher in the division. After winning the 2018 Cy Young, Blake Snell is quickly gunning for Chris Sale as best pitcher too. But is it enough?
New #Rays catcher Mike Zunino on getting a feel for a new pitching staff this spring: “My job is to help them and put them in a great spot.” #mlb #springtraining #tbrays pic.twitter.com/d7ZEh5RkLv
— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) February 12, 2019
Could be with a sneaky-good roster.
Tommy Pham absolutely raked after coming over from the Cardinals. He won’t hit .343 again, but should be a solid presence. At 23, Austin Meadows is still young enough to capitalize on the potential he never got to show in the MLB with Pittsburgh.
3B Matt Duffy on the message before today's first full-squad: "There's a lot of expectations externally, but really the only expectations is to work hard, play hard, run hard, and take care of each other." #Rays
— Steve Carney (@stevecarney) February 18, 2019
After a year away, Matt Duffy proved what he could do over a full season. Following up a slow start, Willy Adames tore the league up post-All Star break. If his sophomore campaign is more second half than first, watch out.
+500 is a good number for the Rays. While they’re a distant third to take the division, a couple of key injuries above them could pay out.
Red Sox Quiet Offseason Drops Them in AL East
Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and JD Martinez will keep the Red Sox moving. Rafael Devers hit .240 with 21 homers as a 21-year old. He never hit below .282 in a full season in the minors. Even if the power falls off, the average should go up.
Red Sox Key Offseason Additions and Subtractions
| Additions | Subtractions |
|---|---|
| Colten Brewer, RP | Craig Kimbrel, RP |
| Erasmo Ramirez, RP | Joe Kelly, RP |
| Ian Kinsler, 2B |
Dombrowski said the Sox would be pleased to get 125 games from Dustin Pedroia.
— Pete Abraham (@PeteAbe) February 13, 2019
The question marks for Boston are catcher, first and second. Steve Pearce and Mitch Moreland won’t wow you. Dustin Pedroia insists he’s healthy, but still needs to hit like it.
Boston won the World Series in spite of historically atrocious production from their catchers.
Yankees Key Additions Pace AL East
In New York, it all starts with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Even if one is the perma-DH, you could do worse than an outfield with Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks and (maybe) Jacoby Ellsbury.
Yankees Key Offseason Additions and Subtractions
| Additions | Subtractions |
|---|---|
| James Paxton, SP | Sonny Gray, SP |
| Adam Ottavino, RP | David Robertson, RP |
| DJ LeMahieu, INF | Andrew McCutchen, OF |
| Troy Tulowitzki, SS | Lance Lynn, SP |
Like the Red Sox, their question is catcher and first base. Catcher isn’t a huge one if Sanchez is healthy.
But will Greg Bird finally return to form? And which Luke Voit is the real Luke Voit? The regular season Luke Voit? Or playoff Luke Voit? Either way, I’m sure DJ LeMahieu, Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres can carry the load.
And if they can’t? Didi Gregorius is on the way.
AL East Will Be Decided By Pitching
With equal offenses, things will come down to pitching between the Red Sox and Yankees.
A good winter meant retaining JA Happ and CC Sabathia in New York. A great winter would be landing a guy like James Paxton to pair with Masahiro Tanka and Luis Severino.
James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka warming up today #Yankees
pic.twitter.com/x3ZO1CXEx6— Yankees Zone (@NYYZone27) February 14, 2019
The Yanks had a great winter.
That doesn’t even take into account they were able to keep Zack Britton and add Adam Ottavino after losing David Robertson.
Boston just concentrated on keeping their talent around. David Price decided against opting out of his deal, and the team picked up Chris Sale’s option. They also re-upped with Nathan Eovaldi.
Who the YANKEES added…
James Paxton
Adam Ottavino
D.J. Lemahieu
Troy TulowitzskiWho the RED SOX added…
Nobody!
— Terry Cushman (@cushmanMLB) February 19, 2019
The big questions surround the Red Sox bullpen. They simply haven’t done anything.
Craig Kimbrel is still sitting on the open market. He’d be big to get back. They lost workhorse Joe Kelly, and even though he wasn’t great, Drew Pomeranz was an experienced arm. There are internal candidates, but the Sox staff has more questions than the Yanks’.
Who Comes Out On Top in the AL East?
The Yankees are the favorites heading into spring training. They were the more active, but it was quality and quantity.
Are the Red Sox that far behind? No. All it takes is one injury, and given the histories of some of the Yankees’ key pieces, it isn’t unlikely.
If the Red Sox play up to their expected level, things will go back and forth all year. Neither is a bad bet for the AL East, but it’s tough to see anyone else playing spoiler.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
