Twins vs Blue Jays Odds and Betting Lines (Sep. 18)
- The Blue Jays are -170 favorites at home over the Twins on Saturday
- Rookie Bailey Ober (2-2, 4.12 ERA) pitches for the Twins against lefty Steven Matz (12-7, 3.87 ERA)
- The odds and matchups can be found below along with a prediction
The Toronto Blue Jays will look to get back on track when they host the Minnesota Twins at 3:07 pm ET Saturday at Rogers Centre in the middle game of a three-game series.
The Blue Jays (82-65) have lost back-to-back games after winning five of their previous six and 13 of 15. Toronto is in third place in the tight American League Wild Card race, one game behind the Boston Red Sox and half a game back of the New York Yankees.
The Twins (65-83) have won just three times in their last nine games, are last in the AL Central and underdogs in this mid-afternoon fray.
Twins vs Blue Jays Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | +150 | +1.5 (-125) | Over 9.5 (-105) |
| Toronto Blue Jays | -170 | -1.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115) |
Odds as of September 17th at DraftKings.
The moneyline has risen slightly since the Blue Jays opened as -165 choices. There is a 100% chance of rain Saturday morning, but it is supposed to clear by game time with the temperature at 74 degrees. Thus, the Rogers Centre roof could be open.
Probable Pitchers
The Twins will go with rookie Bailey Ober (2-2, 4.12 ERA) as their starter and the Blue Jays will counter with left-hander Steven Matz (12-7, 3.87 ERA).
Ober is 1-0 with a 3.26 ERA in his last four starts and 2-1, with a 3.39 ERA in his past 12 turns. He had a no-decision last Sunday against the Kansas City Royals when he gave up three runs and five hits in 4.1 innings with six strikeouts and no walks.
Ober vs Matz
| 2-2 | Record | 12-7 |
| 4.12 | ERA | 3.87 |
| 4.38 | xERA | 4.00 |
| 1.21 | WHIP | 1.33 |
| 5.12 | SO/W | 3.37 |
The Twins have a fine 11-7 record when Ober pitches. However, he has just two quality starts and those are the only times he has pitched at least six innings.
Bailey Ober struck out the side to start the game for the @Twins. pic.twitter.com/dbqFJDhGk1
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 6, 2021
Ober has a 1-1 record and 3.79 ERA in nine starts on the road and is 1-0, with a 4.41 ERA in seven starts in day games.
This will be in the first time Ober has faced the Blue Jays.
Matz is pitching well in heat of the pennant race. He has won back-to-back starts and is 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last six outings.
Run support helped Matz’s cause his last time out on Sunday when he beat the Orioles in Baltimore. He got the win despite yielding five runs and six hits in six innings while striking out six and walking two.
The Blue Jays have split Matz’s 26 starts in his first season with Toronto, and he has made eight quality starts.
Steven Matz, K'ing the side.
K's 6, 7 and 8. pic.twitter.com/bM0GnxtiE0
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 5, 2021
At home, Matz is 3-2 with a 4.17 ERA in 10 starts while he is 5-2, with a 3.07 ERA in eight daylight starts.
Matz has faced the Twins only once, not factoring in the decision in 2019 while pitching for the Mets and giving up two runs in four innings.
Look Out for Donaldson
Third baseman Josh Donaldson in the only Twins hitter with much history with Matz and is 3 for 11 with two home runs. Donaldson won the 2015 AL MVP while with the Blue Jays.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Twins Batters | Batting Average vs Matz |
|---|---|
| Rob Refsnyder | .667 |
| Josh Donaldson | .273 |
| Max Kepler | .000 |
| Jorge Polanco | .000 |
| Miguel Sano | .000 |
| Blue Jays Batters | Batting Average vs Ober |
| Jarrod Dyson | 1.000 |
| Jake Lamb | .500 |
Blue Jays infielder/outfielder Jake Lamb has had success in limited opportunities versus Ober as he is 2 for 4 with a home run.
Twins second baseman Jorge Polanco is on an extended tear. Since July 1, he is hitting .306 in 68 games with 17 doubles, one triple, 22 home runs and 60 RBIs.
The Blue Jays might use a nose tackle to try to stop Polanco.
4-man outfield for Jorge Polanco. pic.twitter.com/tDQCd4umQm
— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) September 18, 2021
The Twins are without shortstop Andrelton Simmons this weekend as he has been placed on the restricted list. Simmons had immigration issues that are preventing him from traveling to Toronto because leaving the country would reset his progress toward securing permanent United States residency.
The Twins got rookie designated hitter/outfielder Brent Rooker back Friday night from the paternity list.
Twins vs Blue Jays Pick
When the Twins won the series opener 7-3 on Friday night, it was the teams’ first matchup since 2019. Minnesota won the season series each year from 2017-19, going 12-8 overall.
While first baseman Vladimir Guerrero hit his MLB-leading 46th home run for the Blue Jays, it wasn’t enough. The Twins won behind consecutive third-inning homers by Polanco, Donaldson and Miguel Sano.
The “high fly” inning. #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/oV7AKRGgsl
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 18, 2021
The Twins and Ober have the feel of a live dog here but just not enough to buck the Blue Jays and Matz with the stakes so high.
The Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (-170)
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
