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The Best Home Run Props to Bet Today – Get a +12440 HR Parlay on Tuesday, May 6th

John Hyslop

By John Hyslop in MLB Baseball

Published:


May 3, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) celebrates hitting a single against the Cleveland Guardians during the fourth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
  • We’re staring down the barrel of a giant MLB slate on Tuesday, May 6
  • Again, we’ve got some weather issues that we need to navigate, but we can do that
  • See below for my +12440 home run parlay today (May 6th)

We turned a little profit for the second day in a row yesterday, narrowly missing stuffing nine units in our pockets. Shohei Ohtani came through early for us and Juan Soto narrowly missed a dinger in his last at bat. We were right there. That means we need to keep our foot on the gas. Lucky for us, the MLB has gifted us a giant slate so it should be easy to find at least three guys that we know for a fact are going yard tonight. In fact, the hard part of tonight, was narrowing the list down to three guys. Don’t worry, I dug deep and got the job done. Just know it wasn’t easy. It took grit.

Please remember to play all three legs straight for 1/4 unit as well as a 1/4-unit three-leg parlay.

MLB Home Run Parlay Today (May 6)

PickOdds
Freddie Freeman HR+470
Vladimir Guerrero HR+450
Brent Rooker HR+300
Three-Leg Parlay+12440

MLB odds as of May 6 at FanDuel. Find the best sports betting app here.

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CLAIM OFFER

Tuesday HR Parlay Leg #1 – Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run

What we need tonight is a man we can trust. A guy that not only can hit the ball hard, but is also hitting the ball hard at the moment. It’s not the easiest thing in the world to find, but after going through every single matchup, I’m ready to say that we can trust Freddie Freeman.

Just look at what he does to the pitch mix he’s going to see tonight.

PitchFreeman Barrl Rate vs Pitch from RHP (2025)Quantril Hard Hit % vs LHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball17%100%
Cutter33%75%

The haters are going to say that Freddie just hit a bomb last night, and they’re right. He did. We all saw him do it. For whatever reason, people think that guys can’t hit nukes in two straight games. Lucky for us, we are saddled with that type of low T brain power. Freddie is on a tear right now with 100+ mph hit after 100+ mph hit and he’s going to see turkey tosser, Cal Quantril tongiht.. We just need to sit back and enjoy the laser show. Feels easy.

  • The Bet: Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+470) – FanDuel
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Tuesday HR Parlay Leg #2 – Vladimir Guerrero to Hit a Home Run

We’re going to have a few hours between Freddie’s dinger and Valdimir Guerrero’s first at bat so we’ll have to figure out what to do with that time. But whatever we do, we don’t want to miss Vlad’s first at bat. If my calculations are correct, he’s going to put a ball on Mars and it’s going to be glorious.

It’s not just a guess. I’m basing this on what Vlad has done against Tyler Anderson’s pitch mix over the last month.

PitchGuerrero Barrl Rate vs Pitch from LHP (L30 Days)Anderson Hard Hit % vs RHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball29%50%
Cutter20%50%

The haters are going to say that Vlad doesn’t hit dingers and they’re kind of right. He hasn’t hit many this season but one thing he’s doing is smoking the ball. We’re talking a 93 mph average exit velocity on the season. On top of that, the last time his bat touched a ball thrown by a lefty, it left the bat at 107 mph. If you’re in the left-field bleachers in Anaheim tonight, keep your head on a swivel. Safety first.

  • The Bet: Vladimir Guerrero to Hit a Home Run (+450) – FanDuel

Tuesday HR Parlay Leg #3 – Brent Rooker to Hit a Home Run

If we’ve learned anything this season, it’s that we need a Circle of Trust member tucking us in at night. We can’t knock down two dinger bets in the earlier games, only to have some bum (no offense) trying to close us out in the late games. It just doesn’t make sense.

Thank God we have Brent Rooker facing off against Emerson Hancock in Sacramento tonight.

PitchRooker Barrel Rate vs Pitch from RHP (2025)Hancock ISO vs RHB (2025)
Slider25%.429
Four-seam Fastball15%.333

Brent has taken heat recently for not being worth the +300 price tag but we have a way around that tonight. FanDuel gives us the 50% boost. So what I did was use that on Rooker. He’s now +450. That way, the second one of these guys hit a dinger tonight, we’ll be profiting. That’s just how math works. Given that fact that we’ll get at least four at bats out of Rooker in a stadium where the wind is blowing out to dead center, against a pitching staff that gives up barrels, I think it’s safe to say it’s a wise boost. Chess, not checkers.

  • The Bet: Brent Rooker to Hit a Home Run (+450) – FanDuel (With 50% Boost)
  • SBD 3-Man HR Strategy Results: -5.363 Units

John Hyslop

John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it.

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