Braves vs Mets Picks and Odds – July 26
- The Atlanta Braves are short favorites over the New York Mets on Sunday Night Baseball
- Rick Porcello (14-12, 5.52 ERA in ’19) will make his Mets debut, while the Braves will counter with Sean Newcomb (6-3, 3.16 ERA in ’19)
- Read below for a preview and betting prediction for the game
The Atlanta Braves were down to their final out on Saturday when prized free agent signing Marcel Ozuna stepped up to the plate. Six pitcher later and the game was tied, as Ozuna took New York Mets closer Edwin Diaz for a ride to right.
9th inning. 2 outs. Full count.⁰⁰
Take it away Marcell!#ForTheA pic.twitter.com/5porHr9LTW
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) July 25, 2020
Atlanta would add three more runs in the 10th en route to a 5-3 victory, and will look to take the series from New York in the rubber match on Sunday Night Baseball at 7:00 pm EST.
Braves vs Mets Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total at FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | -110 | -1.5 (+140) | Over 9.0 (-114) |
| New York Mets | -104 | +1.5 (-168) | Under 9.0 (-106) |
Odds taken July 25th.
Atlanta opened as a short favorite in the Braves vs Mets odds, in a game that features a total of 9. Neither team has looked particularly dangerous on offense through the first two games, and some of the Braves biggest names are having trouble just making contact.
The Rust is Real
The top-three batters in Atlanta’s lineup are a combined 1-for-23 with nine strikeouts. Star outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. has especially struggled, going 1-for-9 with six strikeouts. Number two and number three hitters Ozzie Albies and Freedie Freeman have yet to record a hit, and the entire team has whiffed 27 times in just two outings.
Jacob deGrom pumping 99mph THREE TIMES past Ronald Acuna.
Good morning, good afternoon, good night. pic.twitter.com/1HbeVSgBSW
— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) July 24, 2020
Theoretically, things should get easier Sunday versus Mets newcomer Rick Porcello, but the Braves don’t exactly have a sparkling history against him in their limited appearances.
Braves Career Stats vs Porcello
| Player | AB | H | HR | RBI | K | AVG. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| Ozzie Albies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| Freddy Freeman | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .455 |
| Marcel Ozuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Matt Adams | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .333 |
| Adam Duvall | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Austin Riley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Alex Jackson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Porcello has limited players on the Atlanta roster to a .141 batting average in 54 plate-appearances, and is 3-1 against the Braves in four career starts.
Rick Porcello allowed 50 HR’s in his last 50 GS for the Red Sox and 97 HR’s in his last 100 GS
Porcello and launch angle are enemies
— Boston Sports Info (@bostonsportsinf) July 19, 2020
The 31-year-old is coming off his worst statistical season since 2012, but perhaps a date versus the struggling Atlanta offense will be a recipe for success.
Mets Bats Off to Slow Start
Much like Atlanta, New York is also struggling offensively early on. They’ve scored just four runs in the first two games of the series, and reigning rookie of the year Pete Alonso and Robinson Canoe are a combined 2-for-14. Neither player has an extra-base hit and Alonso struck out three times on Saturday.
Gorgeous hook from Max Fried to strikeout Pete Alonso pic.twitter.com/77RIhcFWwU
— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) July 25, 2020
They’ll face Braves lefty Sean Newcomb, who is back in the rotation after spending the majority of last season in the bullpen. He was very effective in that role in 2019, posting a 2.89 ERA in 56 innings of relief, while striking out 60.
Sean Newcomb says he’s “fired up” to take mound against Mets tomorrow night. pic.twitter.com/7wtLfeo4y5
— Gabe Burns (@GabeBurnsAJC) July 25, 2020
It’s unclear if he’ll remain a starter once Cole Hamels is ready to pitch, and it’s unlikely he’ll be left out there for more than 5 innings.
Mets Career Stats vs Newcomb
| Player | AB | H | HR | RBI | K | AVG. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 000 |
| Pete Alonso | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .500 |
| Robinson Cano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .1000 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .125 |
| Michael Conforto | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .000 |
| J.D. Davis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Amed Rosario | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .500 |
| Jeff McNeil | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .333 |
| Wilson Ramos | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
A short start by Newcomb wouldn’t be the worst outcome for Atlanta as its bullpen has been terrific so far. They’ve allowed just one earned run in 7 innings, and were instrumental in Saturday’s come from behind victory.
Offense Will Be Tough to Come By
Neither one of these teams has looked right offensively through two games and I’m willing to bet that remains the case on Sunday. Yes, the pitching matchup is more favorable for each offense than in the first two games, but a total of 9 still seems way too high.
Offense in general is down early on, as only five of the 15 games on Saturday produced a double-digit total and only six of the 14 contests on Friday reached 10 runs.
Pick: Under 9 (-106)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
