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Braves vs Mets Picks and Odds – July 26

New York Mets
The Mets Pete Alonso is off to a slow start in 2020 recording just one hit in his first eight at-bats. Photo by slgckgc (Flickr).
  • The Atlanta Braves are short favorites over the New York Mets on Sunday Night Baseball
  • Rick Porcello (14-12, 5.52 ERA in ’19) will make his Mets debut, while the Braves will counter with Sean Newcomb (6-3, 3.16 ERA in ’19)
  • Read below for a preview and betting prediction for the game

The Atlanta Braves were down to their final out on Saturday when prized free agent signing Marcel Ozuna stepped up to the plate. Six pitcher later and the game was tied, as Ozuna took New York Mets closer Edwin Diaz for a ride to right.

Atlanta would add three more runs in the 10th en route to a 5-3 victory, and will look to take the series from New York in the rubber match on Sunday Night Baseball at 7:00 pm EST.

Braves vs Mets Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total at FanDuel
Atlanta Braves -110 -1.5 (+140) Over 9.0 (-114)
New York Mets -104 +1.5 (-168) Under 9.0 (-106)

Odds taken July 25th.

Atlanta opened as a short favorite in the Braves vs Mets odds, in a game that features a total of 9. Neither team has looked particularly dangerous on offense through the first two games, and some of the Braves biggest names are having trouble just making contact.

The Rust is Real

The top-three batters in Atlanta’s lineup are a combined 1-for-23 with nine strikeouts. Star outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. has especially struggled, going 1-for-9 with six strikeouts. Number two and number three hitters Ozzie Albies and Freedie Freeman have yet to record a hit, and the entire team has whiffed 27 times in just two outings.

Theoretically, things should get easier Sunday versus Mets newcomer Rick Porcello, but the Braves don’t exactly have a sparkling history against him in their limited appearances.

Braves Career Stats vs Porcello

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG.
Ronald Acuna 3 0 0 0 1 .000
Ozzie Albies 0 0 0 0 1 .000
Freddy Freeman 11 5 0 1 1 .455
Marcel Ozuna 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Matt Adams 3 1 0 0 1 .333
Adam Duvall 3 1 0 0 0 .333
Dansby Swanson 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Austin Riley 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Alex Jackson 0 0 0 0 0 .000

Porcello has limited players on the Atlanta roster to a .141 batting average in 54 plate-appearances, and is 3-1 against the Braves in four career starts.

The 31-year-old is coming off his worst statistical season since 2012, but perhaps a date versus the struggling Atlanta offense will be a recipe for success.

Mets Bats Off to Slow Start

Much like Atlanta, New York is also struggling offensively early on. They’ve scored just four runs in the first two games of the series, and reigning rookie of the year Pete Alonso and Robinson Canoe are a combined 2-for-14. Neither player has an extra-base hit and Alonso struck out three times on Saturday.

They’ll face Braves lefty Sean Newcomb, who is back in the rotation after spending the majority of last season in the bullpen. He was very effective in that role in 2019, posting a 2.89 ERA in 56 innings of relief, while striking out 60.

It’s unclear if he’ll remain a starter once Cole Hamels is ready to pitch, and it’s unlikely he’ll be left out there for more than 5 innings.

Mets Career Stats vs Newcomb

Player AB H HR RBI K AVG.
Brandon Nimmo 7 0 0 0 3 000
Pete Alonso 2 1 0 0 1 .500
Robinson Cano 1 1 0 1 0 .1000
Yoenis Cespedes 8 1 0 0 3 .125
Michael Conforto 7 0 0 1 3 .000
J.D. Davis 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Amed Rosario 10 5 0 1 3 .500
Jeff McNeil 6 2 0 1 1 .333
Wilson Ramos 4 0 0 0 0 .000

A short start by Newcomb wouldn’t be the worst outcome for Atlanta as its bullpen has been terrific so far. They’ve allowed just one earned run in 7 innings, and were instrumental in Saturday’s come from behind victory.

Offense Will Be Tough to Come By

Neither one of these teams has looked right offensively through two games and I’m willing to bet that remains the case on Sunday. Yes, the pitching matchup is more favorable for each offense than in the first two games, but a total of 9 still seems way too high.

Offense in general is down early on, as only five of the 15 games on Saturday produced a double-digit total and only six of the 14 contests on Friday reached 10 runs.

Pick: Under 9 (-106)

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