Cardinals vs Mets Expert Picks, Predictions & Splits (June 9)

• The Mets moneyline provides strong value tonight against the Cardinals
• With both offenses consistently generating hard contact, expect a high-scoring game
• See the Cardinals vs Mets expert picks, predictions and splits for June 9, below

The New York Mets (29-36) welcome the St. Louis Cardinals (35-28) to Citi Field tonight, for Game 1 of their three-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET under the lights in Queens, with sunshine and 72 degree temperatures projected in the MLB weather data.

Despite owning the weaker record, the Mets enter as home favorites in the most recent MLB odds. They look to build on momentum from an offensive explosion that defeated the San Diego Padres 7-3 in their last contest.

The Cardinals present an enticing option as a live road underdog. They’ve strung together four straight wins, and enter the contest 7 games above .500.

Below, you’ll find my favorite Cardinals vs Mets expert picks and predictions, along with the latest betting splits for the June 9th contest.

Cardinals vs Mets Expert Picks

• Mets moneyline (-125 at BetMGM)
• Over 8 runs (-120 at Bet365)

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Despite St. Louis’ strong form, I am backing the Mets moneyline as my primary bet for this contest. The Mets have capitalized on favorable matchups recently, winning seven of their last 10 games overall. They are also an impressive 5-1 (83.3%) when favored over their last 10 contests.

The starting pitching discrepancy in the MLB starting lineups is the primary catalyst for my selection. The Mets send Freddy Peralta to the mound. The right-hander has compiled a steady 3.63 ERA and 1.32 WHIP across 72.0 innings this season. He strikes out an elite 9.25 batters per nine innings, which creates a tough environment for opposing hitters.

The Cardinals turn to Dustin May. While talented, the righty has pitched to a 4.59 ERA over 66.2 frames. Given his vulnerability to hard contact, premier power threats like Juan Soto should find plenty of opportunities to jumpstart the offense. Soto currently boasts a commanding .894 OPS.

As for the total, I’m also betting Over 8 runs. Cardinals matchups have trended toward lower-scoring affairs overall, but they carry a .709 team OPS. With the Mets generating an average exit velocity of 88.9 mph at home, expect consistent offensive production.

Freddy Peralta vs Dustin May

The surface-level results favor Peralta, but underlying metrics tell a complex story. May boasts an impressive 3.36 FIP, which sits significantly lower than his actual ERA. This indicates he has been the victim of bad luck when the ball is put in play. He also walks just 2.56 batters per nine innings.

However, the Mets possess a highly capable pitching staff that ranks 14th in team ERA (3.75). The Cardinals sit near the bottom of the league in both team ERA (4.09) and strikeouts per nine innings (7.72). This significant strikeout mismatch heavily supports my prop recommendation on Peralta below.

Cardinals vs Mets Predictions

• Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-142 on DraftKings)
• Jordan Walker Over 0.5 Hits (-165 on DraftKings)

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In the MLB props market, Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts is my top priority. Peralta is fanning batters at a high rate. Securing a line of just 5.5 offers tremendous value based on his season-long underlying metrics.

For a secondary prop, I am targeting Jordan Walker Over 0.5 Hits. Walker sports a .303 batting average and a staggering .922 OPS per the MLB batter vs pitcher stats. He remains a highly reliable investment to secure at least one base hit.

Cardinals vs Mets Odds

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Cardinals vs Mets Splits

Analyzing the MLB public betting splits shows that the public is overwhelmingly backing the home team. The Mets command a hefty 71.7% of the betting tickets. This widespread support aligns perfectly with my official prediction. However, a look at the money percentages tells a different story.

Despite receiving only 28.3% of the tickets, the Cardinals have drawn 55.2% of the overall financial stake. This split indicates larger wagers are backing the road underdogs.

There is absolute agreement across the board regarding the game total. The Over currently holds a massive 85.8% of all betting tickets. The handle supports that enthusiasm with 84.8% of the total money wagered.