Cardinals vs Reds Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers (August 30)
By Robert Duff in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Cincinnati Reds are -190 home favorites over the St. Louis Cardinals in an NL Central clash on Monday, August 30
- Cincinnati has won six of the past seven games against the Cardinals
- See below for analysis and a betting prediction
The St. Louis Cardinals (66-63, 31-33 away) own a one-game winning streak against the Cincinnati Reds (71-61, 36-29 home). Even better, it’s a one-game stretch of success in Cincinnati.
Both of those outcomes have proven hard to come by for the Cards this season. They are 1-6 over their last seven games against the Reds and 1-4 in their last five games at Cincinnati.
Oddsmakers are taking that into account. As St. Louis arrives in Cinci for a three-game series, its the Reds who are being established as the -190 betting choice over the Redbirds. Cincinnati is a stellar 34-19 as a home favorite this season.
Cardinals vs Reds Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | +160 | +1.5 (-125) | O 9.5 (+100) |
| Cincinnati Reds | -190 | -1.5 (+105) | U 9.5 (-120) |
Odds as of August 29th at DraftKings.
The first pitch of Monday’s game at Great American Ballpark is set for 6:40 pm ET. In terms of weather, they’re calling for rain, 4 mph wind and a temperature of 77 degrees.
Lester vs Castillo
| 4-6 | Record | 7-13 |
| 5.27 | ERA | 4.29 |
| 5.25 | xERA | 3.78 |
| 1.65 | WHIP | 1.38 |
| 1.09 | SO/W Ratio | 2.44 |
Just two seasons removed from an NL-leading 18 wins, three-time World Series winner Jon Lester’s career looks to be on its last legs. He’s 4-6 with the highest WHIP (1.81) and lowest strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.09) of his big-league days.
He’s in the bottom 2% of baseball in strikeout percentage (13.7). Lester rates in the bottom 7% in both Max EV (116) and wOBA (.368) and in the bottom 8% in xBA (.279).
Jon Lester has allowed 39 batters to reach base in 20 1/3 innings as a Cardinal. https://t.co/Y7pEi1nMXQ
— Drew Silva (@drewsilv) August 24, 2021
Since coming to the Cardinals in a trade with the Washington Nationals for Lane Thomas, the veteran lefty is 1-1 with a 6.04 ERA. He’s walked as many or more than he’s struck out in three of those five starts.
Lester has won once over his past nine starts. In 20 career starts against the Reds, he’s a solid 8-2 with a 3.74 ERA.
Right-hander Luis Castillo is 2-2 in four starts against the Cardinals this season. On April 1, St. Louis roughed him up for 10 runs, eight of them earned, in 3.1 innings of work. He’s won his last two starts against them, though. Castillo held the Cards to two earned runs over the past 13 innings.
Luis Castillo, 99mph Fastball and 91mph Changeup, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/hadIbP8HPu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 26, 2021
Castillo is 6-6 with a 4.34 ERA in 15 career stats against St. Louis. Five of those six wins came on the road.
Overall, he’s just 1-3 through his last four starts. But Castillo has allowed a meager six earned runs through his past 20 innings. He’s checked opponents on two or fewer runs in seven of his past 10 starts.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Cardinals Batters | Batting Average vs Castillo | Reds Batters | Batting Average vs Lester |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | .267 | Shogo Akiyama | .000 |
| Harrison Bader | .300 | Aristides Aquino | .167 |
| Dylan Carlson | .364 | Tucker Barnhart | .214 |
| Matt Carpenter | .240 | Asdrubal Cabrera | .250 |
| Paul DeJong | .250 | Nick Castellanos | .400 |
| Tommy Edman | .333 | Kyle Farmer | .250 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | .250 | Jonathan India | .000 |
| Andrew Knizner | .400 | Mike Moustakas | .250 |
| Yadier Molina | .174 | Tyler Naquin | .000 |
| Lars Nootbaar | .000 | Max Schrock | .000 |
| Tyler O’Neill | .143 | Tyler Stephenson | .000 |
| Jose Rondon | .000 | Eugenio Suarez | .429 |
| Edmundo Sosa | .500 | Joey Votto | .225 |
Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez absolutely dominates at the plate when facing Lester. He’s 15-for-35 (.429) with five home runs and 11 RBI. Right fielder Nick Castellanos is 2-for-5 (.400).
Back-to-back games with a homer for Nick Castellanos! pic.twitter.com/7SbK8oKNUH
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) August 26, 2021
St. Louis catcher Andrew Knizner is 2-for-5 (.400) with a homer and two RBI versus Castillo. Shortstop Edmundo Sosa is 1-for-2 (.500) and that one hit is a solo homer. Right fielder Dylan Carlson is 4-for-11 (.364) with a homer and four RBI.
Second baseman Matt Carpenter, shortstop Paul DeJong, left fielder Tyler O’Neill and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt have all gone deep twice off of Castillo during their big-league career.
Cardinals vs Reds Pick
Desperately trying to stay relevant in the NL Wild Card race, St. Louis is 5-7 though the past 12 games. That includes four losses to the woeful Pittsburgh Pirates. This stretch followed on the heels of a season-high six-game winning streak.
The @Reds have a 2-game lead for the second Wild Card, and Joey Votto is having a ball! pic.twitter.com/Zw3YD7Jtd9
— MLB (@MLB) August 28, 2021
The Reds are 6-4 through the past 10 games. Five of those six wins came at the expense of the Miami Marlins. Cincinnati is 9-1 in the past 10 games in which the club has scored a minimum of four runs.
The Reds and Cardinals have met 13 times this season. Cinci holds an 8-5 advantage in the season series.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds (-190).
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
