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Cardinals vs Cubs Predictions & Player-Prop Picks on Jul 4th
By Jordan Tomiyama in MLB Baseball
Published:
- Bitter rivals square off as the Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals
- Is it smart to bet on Alex Bregman, who holds massive value on his total bases prop today?
- Keep reading to see the best predictions, latest odds, and player-prop picks for this National League matchup
The Chicago Cubs (49-39) are hungry to bounce back as they continue their divisional series against the St Louis Cardinals (46-39). After getting shellacked 17-1 in the previous matchup, the home favorites are handing the rock to Shota Imanaga. He needs to quiet a lineup that just raked 17 hits.
The Cardinals counter with Kyle Leahy, hoping to keep their momentum rolling as a road underdog. You can catch this ELECTRIC holiday clash at 8:08 p.m. ET on FOX. I am eyeing some massive edges on the board for this one.
I love diving into the prop market to find HYPER-SPECIFIC betting angles. The oddsmakers have laid out a fascinating board for us today.
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Cardinals vs Cubs Best Player Prop Bets & Predictions
Jordan Walker and Pete Crow-Armstrong are projected as the premier power threats. Walker is the favorite to launch a dinger (+380 DraftKings). If you want Crow-Armstrong to go deep, check out Kalshi. They offer him to hit 1+ home runs at just 18¢ per contract, providing much better expected value than the traditional +430 odds at most books.
Imanaga is heavily favored to work deep into this game (+135 to clear 18.5 outs on DraftKings), while Leahy sits at plus-money (+112) just to finish the sixth inning. Here are my absolute FAVORITE picks for this matchup:
Pick 1: Kyle Leahy Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-166 at DraftKings)
The Cardinals hurler faces a massive statistical wall when it comes to racking up punchouts. Leahy has failed to record more than 4.5 strikeouts in an ASTOUNDING 26 of his last 29 games. Furthermore, he has fallen short of this line in 13 of his last 14 road appearances.
Pick 2: Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 Total Bases (-161 at BetMGM)
Despite the tempting plus-money over, I am fading the designated hitter today. Ivan Herrera is a dismal 3-14 against a 1.5 total bases line in his last 17 games, cashing the under 82.0% of the time.
Pick 3: Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Total Bases (38¢ at Kalshi)
Alex Bregman loves stepping into the box at Wrigley Field. He is 3-1 to the over on 1.5 total bases in his last four home games. I am skipping the traditional +144 odds and buying his 2+ Total Bases contract for 38¢ at Kalshi, securing a noticeably better payout.
Odds as of July 4, 2026, at 1:35 PM ET from BetMGM, DraftKings, and Kalshi
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Cardinals vs Cubs Batter vs Pitcher Matchups
Cardinals Batters vs Shota Imanaga
Cubs Batters vs Kyle Leahy
When looking at the history between these bats and the opposing arms, a few guys stand out. Masyn Winn has mashed Imanaga, racking up five knocks—including a round-tripper—in 14 career at-bats (.357 AVG). He is a phenomenal look to get on base. It’s never a bad choice to check out our MLB batter vs pitcher stats before you lock in any of your bets.
On the flip side, Crow-Armstrong owns Leahy, going 4-for-8 (.500 AVG) against the righty. I would pump the brakes on Nico Hoerner, though. He has managed a miserable .100 AVG (1-for-10) against Leahy historically. These historical splits are CRITICAL when locking in your wagers.
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Cardinals vs Cubs Injury Report & Impact
The war of attrition is REAL for the home squad. The Cubs are dealing with a brutal injury crisis, especially on the bump. Losing Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Edward Cabrera leaves the rotation gasping for air. These injuries could affect MLB starting lineups.
This depleted pitching staff is exactly why Imanaga is priced at -179 to record over 17.5 outs. The Cubs desperately need their southpaw to eat innings and shield a heavily taxed bullpen. If the Cardinals chase him early, this game could get UGLY in a hurry.
Weather Forecast at Wrigley Field
- Venue: Wrigley Field
- Playing Surface: Grass (Outdoor)
Mother Nature always has a say when baseball is played on the North Side. Specific weather data for tonight is currently pending, but we check our MLB weather page to stay up to date.
If the wind blows in, this historic venue turns into an absolute pitcher’s paradise, knocking down sure-fire dingers. If it blows out, it becomes a chaotic hitter’s dream. I highly recommend checking local weather updates closer to first pitch.
Cardinals vs Cubs Game Odds
Odds as of July 4 2026, at 1:34 PM ET from Bet365, Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings
The Cubs take the field as distinct home favorites (-160 at Caesars Sportsbook) thanks to their massive starting pitching advantage according to the latest MLB odds. If you want to ride with the road underdogs, the Cardinals offer a juicy +135 payout on the moneyline.
Early MLB public betting percentages significantly shifted the market. The total opened at 8 runs with the over juiced to -120, but the juice flipped heavily to the under at -110. Sharp bettors are clearly trusting Imanaga to bounce back while fading Leahy on the mound.
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Jordan has worked in sports media for the last seven years, writing articles, managing social media, and covering sporting events for various media outlets. Jordan's work focuses on NBA, WNBA, college basketball, and the NHL.
