Dodgers vs Brewers Game 1 Prediction, Starting Pitchers & Betting Splits (Oct 11)
By Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The defending champion Dodgers face the Brewers in Game 1 of the NLCS tonight
- I’m backing LA to win fuelled by a strong outing from Tarik Skubal
- Check out the Dodgers vs Brewers Game 1 prediction, starting pitchers and betting splits for Oct. 11, below
The Milwaukee Brewers (103-59, 55-26 at home) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (100-62, 49-32 on the road) at American Family Field in Game 1 of the NLCS tonight at 7:00 PM ET. FOX will have the national broadcast coverage.
In this preview, I will break down the premier betting angles for this National League pennant clash. Two-time reigning AL Cy Young-winner Tarik Skubal takes the ball for Los Angeles against soon-to-be NL Cy Young-winner Jacob Misiorowski for Milwaukee.
Keep reading for the Dodgers vs Brewers Game 1 prediction, starting pitchers and betting splits for Oct. 11, below.
Dodgers vs Brewers Game 1 Prediction
Best Player Prop: Skubal Over 6.5 Ks (-150 / 60% at Novig)
When evaluating the board for this matchup of World Series odds contenders, the MLB player props market offers immediate value. Skubal boasts an elite 10.55 K/9 rate across 158.2 innings in the regular season while averaging over 6.0 innings per start. Situational trends point heavily to his strikeout prop.
Skubal has exceeded 6.5 strikeouts in 83.3% of his last six road starts (5 of 6), racking up 50 punchouts across 39.0 innings for an average of 8.33 strikeouts per contest away from home. Skubal also carried that swing-and-miss stuff right into October, fanning 7 across 6.0 dominant frames in his NLDS Game 1 start against Atlanta.
Milwaukee’s aggressive, chase-heavy approach plays right into his devastating secondary repertoire, making the over on 6.5 strikeouts a priority target. New users can grab the Novig Promo code for a bonus to use on Game 1.
Run-Total Pick: Under 6.5 Runs (-122 / 55% at Novig)
For the game total, I’m taking Under 6.5 runs. This series opener features a premier pitching showdown between two of the league’s most unhittable arms. Skubal surrendered just one earned run in his NLDS outing and registered a 2.72 regular-season ERA, while Misiorowski posted a microscopic 1.80 ERA with 252 strikeouts in 174.2 innings during the regular season.
Both pitching staffs carried that dominance through the Division Series, where Los Angeles allowed three or fewer runs in three of four games and Milwaukee held San Diego to three or fewer runs in three of four contests.
With both managers possessing fully-rested, lockdown bullpens, runs will be at an absolute premium early in this series.
Runline Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (35¢ / +185 at Kalshi)
For a side play, I am backing the Dodgers on the runline. Los Angeles has been dominant away from Dodger Stadium, entering this series on a six-game road winning streak across the regular season and playoffs. Crucially, the Dodgers didn’t just scrape by on the road—five of those six victories were by multiple runs, including a pair of multi-run wins in Atlanta to eliminate the Braves in Games 3 and 4 of the NLDS.
Los Angeles has also covered the -1.5 runline in each of Skubal’s last two starts, winning 5-3 over Atlanta in Game 1 and blanking San Francisco 2-0 down the stretch in the regular season.
Instead of laying heavy moneyline juice, Kalshi offers tremendous value for Los Angeles to win by at least two runs at 35¢ per share, yielding an attractive +185 implied return. Grab the Kalshi promo code to tail this wager.
Los Angeles vs Milwaukee Game 1 Starting Pitchers
Both teams won their starters opening outing of the postseason: Skubal has a 1.50 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP after his 6.0 innings of work against Atlanta, stifling hitters to a .100 batting average.
Skubal vs Misiorowski Stats
Misiorowski has a 4.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP after a mediocre 4.0-inning outing in Game 1 against San Diego. If his pitch count rises early, Milwaukee will be forced to cover significant bullpen innings.
Dodgers Batters vs Misiorowski
Brewers Batters vs Skubal
Shohei Ohtani stands out as the primary power threat for Los Angeles, recording two extra-base hits—including a home run—in seven career at-bats against Misiorowski. Conversely, Misiorowski has baffled Dodgers stars Freddie Freeman (0-for-7, four strikeouts) and Mookie Betts (1-for-8, three strikeouts).
For Milwaukee, William Contreras (.375 AVG) and Jackson Chourio (.333 AVG) have consistently found success against Skubal. Brewers third baseman Joey Ortiz has struggled mightily against the left-hander, striking out eight times in 11 hitless at-bats.
LAD vs MIL Game 1 Odds
Odds as of October 10, 2026, at 11:11 PM ET from BetMGM. Sign up to and claim the BetMGM promo code today.
Milwaukee enters this contest as a slight home favorite on the moneyline at -115 in the MLB odds, while Los Angeles is priced right behind at -105. Given the identical 3-1 starts and elite pitching matchup, oddsmakers project a tight affair. For runline bettors looking at traditional markets, Los Angeles must win by at least two runs to cash a +165 ticket.
Dodgers vs Brewers Game 1 Betting Splits
When looking at the moneyline in the MLB public betting splits, the ticket count is virtually a coin flip. The home-underdog Brewers command 50.1% of the tickets. However, a commanding 70.3% of the overall moneyline stake backs Los Angeles. It is abundantly clear that the heavier, more aggressive financial backing is riding with the road team to win outright.
The most lopsided market on the board is the game total. A staggering 84.8% of the tickets and 78.8% of the money are backing the Over, despite dueling aces on the mound.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
