Expert Picks & Predictions for D-backs vs Reds on June 12

• I’m backing Arizona tonight behind a strong start from Eduardo Rodriguez
• Nick Lodolo’s recent struggles is a primary reason Over 9.5 runs is showing value
• See below for my expert picks and predictions for D-backs vs Reds on June 12

The Arizona Diamondbacks (34-33) travel to Great American Ball Park tonight to open a series against the Cincinnati Reds (32-35), with first pitch set for 7:15 PM EST. The MLB weather forecast is calling for a perfect night for baseball, with clear skies and 83 degree temperatures on deck.

Both teams enter play having lost four of their last five games overall. Online sportsbooks expect the D-backs to be the team that breaks out of its funk first, pegging them as the run line favorite in the MLB odds. Despite laying 1.5 runs, Arizona actually has the longer moneyline odds at -104, and that’s a market I’ll be backing them in.

Keep reading for the reasons why, plus see the rest of my expert picks and predictions for the D-backs vs Reds contest on June 12.

Expert Picks for D-backs vs Reds

• Arizona Moneyline (-104 at Bet365)
• Over 9.5 Runs (-115 at DraftKings)

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When evaluating the MLB starting lineups, the starting pitching discrepancy points heavily toward the visitors. Given the advantage, Arizona on the moneyline is my top wager. Eduardo Rodriguez has been a reliable anchor, sporting a 9-4 record with a 2.52 ERA across 78.2 innings. His 1.18 WHIP demonstrates excellent baserunner control.

Conversely, Cincinnati counters with Nick Lodolo. The left-hander has struggled, posting a 2-4 record, a 5.51 ERA, and an elevated 1.50 WHIP over 32.2 innings. Given his 6.50 FIP, Lodolo is prone to allowing significant contact. Because of these pitching vulnerabilities, my secondary pick is Over 9.5 total runs.

Eduardo Rodriguez vs Nick Lodolo Stats

Rodriguez effectively limits hard contact and averages over six innings per outing in his last 10 appearances. His 3.12 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over that span indicate high-floor consistency. He should comfortably navigate a lineup lacking batting average consistency.

Lodolo, meanwhile, struggles with control, carrying a 3.86 BB/9 rate over his limited season sample. If Lodolo fails to find the strike zone early, the Diamondbacks are well-positioned to capitalize on the free passes and string together extra-base hits. Also working in favor of the over, is the fact that Great American Ball Park is the second most hitter friendly venue per the MLB park factors.

Predictions for D-backs vs Reds

• Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (-127 on DraftKings)
• Eduardo Rodriguez Over 17.5 Outs (-117 on DraftKings)

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I also see distinct edges in the MLB props markets. Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases is my top prop target. Marte is slugging .442 with 11 home runs. He faces a pitcher who constantly allows traffic on the basepaths.

Additionally, Eduardo Rodriguez Over 17.5 Outs offers solid value. The veteran averages 6.05 innings per start, and Cincinnati ranks 28th in home batting average (.221) per the MLB batter vs pitcher stats, making this a highly favorable matchup for the southpaw.

Odds for D-backs vs Reds

Betting Splits for D-backs vs Reds

Analyzing the MLB public betting market data reveals clear consensus across the board. On the moneyline, the public slightly favors Arizona with 55.7% of the tickets. However, a substantial 77.7% of the moneyline handle backs the outright victory for the visitors. This heavy influx of cash aligns with my prediction, highlighting professional confidence in the starting pitching advantage.

The runline market paints an even more lopsided picture. Bettors expect the Diamondbacks to win with breathing room. They are drawing 71.3% of the runline tickets and an overwhelming 96.3% of the total money. Conversely, only 3.7% of the money trusts Cincinnati to cover the spread.

Regarding the game total, the public expects offensive production. The Over commands 84.1% of the betting tickets and 87.2% of the overall stake. The Under has captured just 12.8% of the money. Larger bettors and casual fans are united in fading the struggling Lodolo.