Best Longshot Pick for Home Run Derby – Get a +900 Bet to Target Tonight
By Juan Pablo Aravena in MLB Baseball
Published:
- Ben Rice looks like an excellent value pick (+1011) in the 2026 Home Run Derby odds
- Yankees slugger ranks third in MLB in home runs this season (29) and leads all hitters in ISO (.301)
- Check the best odds and a breakdown on why Rice has a shot at winning the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby
The 2026 T-Mobile Home Run Derby will take place at Citizens Bank Park on Monday, July 13, 2026, as part of the MLB All-Star festivities.
Names such as Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero are seen as the odds-on favorites to win the event, and for good reason. Schwarber will be at home, while Caminero is arguably one of the hottest bats in the game after a torrid stretch from June 23 to July 4, during which he launched 11 homers in 11 days.
However, there’s one player who isn’t getting enough attention: Ben Rice. He might not be the Yankees hitter everyone wanted at this event, but with Aaron Judge on the IL and Giancarlo Stanton past his prime, he’s been the best bat for the Bronx Bombers all season long and deserves a spot in the derby.
Home Run Derby Longshot Pick
Rice’s +1011 implied odds are the second-lowest for the event per Kalshi, ahead of only Willson Contreras (+1567) and well below other options such as Schwarber (+355), Caminero (+400), Munetaka Murakami (+525), and Jac Caglianone (+669). Jordan Walker (+809) and Bryce Harper (+900) round out the field.
A $20 bet on Rice to win the 2026 Home Run Derby would net a $222.20 payout at Kalshi, which often offers better probabilities than traditional sportsbooks. There’s no question his odds are a long shot. However, it would be a huge mistake to overlook what Rice has done in 2026 while playing a bigger-than-expected role in the Yankees’ lineup, a team that has excellent 2026 MLB Playoff Odds at the All-Star break.
Ben Rice: 2026 MLB Season Stats
Even though Rice went through a rough patch in June, hitting .196 with just six homers in 26 games, he’s bounced back admirably in July and has shown the rest of the baseball world why he’s considered one of the best hitters in the majors.
The Yankees’ catcher/first baseman enters the break slashing .359/.479/.872 with a 1.351 OPS and six homers across 48 plate appearances this month. This season, the star slugger is hitting .279/.372/.599 with a .971 OPS, 29 homers, 69 RBI, and an MLB-leading .320 ISO across 91 games and 390 plate appearances. He also ranks third in the majors in homers, trailing only Schwarber (32) and Yordan Alvarez (31).
Rice already surpassed his previous career-best mark in homers, established last season with 26 in 138 games. Aside from leading the majors in ISO, Rice also ranks third in AB/HR with 11.62, again trailing Schwarber and Alvarez. Essentially, Rice hits a homer every 12 at-bats, or once every (roughly) three games.
Ben Rice Advanced Stats
There are metrics in which Rice doesn’t fare as well as other hitters, such as average velocity (29th, 92.1), EV50 (58th, 101.8), and Hard-Hit% (44th, 47.6). But those in-game metrics don’t age well in a controlled environment such as the Home Run Derby, where sluggers are thrown easy pitches made for hitting homers.
For what it’s worth, names like James Wood, Alvarez and Oneil Cruz sit near the top of several advanced metrics, per Baseball Savant, but neither will be participating in the Home Run Derby. Raw power outlasts average velocity in this scenario, and carrying a hot bat also plays a role. With Rice sitting as the MLB leader in ISO, the metric that determines each hitter’s raw power by default, he has a good chance to pull the upset in this event.
Rice doesn’t have a ton of experience in the 2026 Home Run Derby. This will be his first time participating in the event, although he did take part in three home-run-hitting events during a summer league in 2020. That’s completely different from doing it in front of a sellout crowd in the All-Star Game, but Rice has stepped up to the occasion several times already this season.
If you’re looking for real value past the field of favorites, Rice is your man.
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Juan Pablo is a sports writer and betting analyst with over 15 years' experience in the industry. He is an expert in European and Latin American soccer, as well as NBA, MLB, NHL, NFL, college sports, and EuroLeague. He was born and raised in Chile and is fluent in Spanish, English, and Portuguese.
