Home Run Derby Odds, Picks & Predictions 2023
- Pete Alonso is a +300 favorite to win the 2023 Home Run Derby on Monday
- Alonso is a two-time champion, and has hit the most homers in event history
- Check out the complete list of Home Run Derby odds, picks and predictions
With all due respect to the American League vs National League Game, the main attraction of All-Star Week in Seattle is clearly the Home Run Derby.
There’s nothing more compelling about the week than seeing the game’s top sluggers pound balls over the fence, and this year the event’s most prolific masher is back for a run at his third title.
Home Run Derby Odds
| Slugger | Odds to Win | Odds to be a Finalist |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | +300 | +165 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +360 | +190 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | +500 | +170 |
| Julio Rodriguez | +550 | +290 |
| Adolis Garcia | +650 | +220 |
| Randy Arozarena | +950 | +310 |
| Mookie Betts | +1000 | +475 |
| Adley Rutschman | +1700 | +500 |
That of course is the Mets Pete Alonso, who’s a +300 favorite to win Monday’s Home Run Derby. He’s followed by Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +360, who’s looking to join his Hall-of-Fame dad as the first father-son combo to win the Home Run Derby.
All odds as of July 9 at DraftKings. Get a DraftKings promo code to bet on the 2023 Home Run Derby or check out this list of mobile sports betting apps.
Alonso a Derby Darling
Alonso was put on planet Earth to crush dingers. The 28-year-old has averaged 43 home runs in the three full seasons he’s played, and is on pace for 45+ homers in 2023.
His .530 career slugging percentage is higher than of the other seven competitors, and he’s also the most experienced at this event. Alonso has shown up to the Home Run Derby three times, winning twice, and setting the record for the most homers in event history.
OTD in 2019, Pete Alonso became the second rookie to ever win the Home Run Derby.
Will Alonso join Ken Griffey Jr. as the only two players to ever win three Home Run Derby titles? pic.twitter.com/vjFPdab1kC
— MLB Vault (@MLBVault) July 8, 2023
The longshot NL MVP odds candidate has an ideal swing for this contest, and one more title will tie him with Ken Griffey Jr. for the most all-time. Alonso is a model of consistency, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be beaten.
Guerrero Jr. is certainly a candidate to do so. He set the record for most home runs in a single Derby in 2019 with 91, hitting 40 in the second round alone. Despite the ridiculous 2019 numbers, it still wasn’t good enough to claim the crown that year, and his power stroke has been off for most of 2023.
Vladdy is on pace for less than 30 home runs this season, which would be the lowest of his career since his rookie campaign. That doesn’t mean he can’t find his swing on Monday, but his odds are simply too short to chase at the moment.
Rodriguez a Real Value
You don’t have to look too much further past Guerrero Jr. to find a worthy target to upset Alonso. The Mariners Julio Rodriguez, last year’s runner-up, is more than capable of accomplishing the feat.
Rodriguez will try to become the second player in Derby history to win the title in front of his hometown fans, and his performance last year showcased a sky-high ceiling.
He belted multiple 30-homer rounds in 2022, and owns two of the five best rounds ever at the Home Run Derby. Rodriguez is already eight all-time in total Derby homers, and won’t have to wait long for a chance to knock off Alonso.
Home Run Derby Round 1 matchup at @BetMGM
▪️ Pete Alonso -175
▪️ Julio Rodriguez +14580% of bets are on Rodriguez to advance. pic.twitter.com/ZYepXonAVp
— John Ewing (@johnewing) July 7, 2023
The two will be pitted against each other in Round 1, and the overwhelming amount of bets are currently on the Seattle slugger. As of Saturday, 80% of bets were on Rodriguez as a +145 underdog to get passed Alonso. That bet is very enticing, as is Rodriguez’s +550 odds to win it all.
Picks:
- Rodriguez to Win (+550)
- Rodriguez Over Alonso in Round 1 (+145)
Longest Home Run Predictions
Online sportsbooks are offering a handful of additional markets for the Home Run Derby outside of the winner and 1st round matchups. The one that’s caught our eye is the distance of the longest home run, with value appearing to lie on under 490.5 feet.
Longest Home Run Odds
| Distance | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 490.5 Feet | -110 |
| Under 490.5 Feet | -110 |
In the Statcast Era, there’s been just two home runs of 497+ feet that weren’t hit at Coors Field in Colorado, or smashed by Aaron Judge. The longest home run last year at Dodgers Stadium measured 482 feet, while none of this year’s participants has hit a dinger north of 454 feet in 2023.
Furthermore, T-Mobile Park in Seattle, host of this year’s event, isn’t exactly known for tape measure bombs. The longest home run ever hit at that stadium was by Mike Zunino back in 2018, measuring 470 feet.
Pick:
- Longest Home Run Under 490.5 feet (-110)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
