Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Predictions, Best Odds & Props to Target (Game 1)

• The Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles meet in Game 1 of their best-of-three Wild Card series on Tuesday
• The O’s won four of six in the regular season and are Game 1 favorites with Corbin Burnes on the mound
• Below, see the Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles predictions, odds, and player props to target on Oct. 1

The 2024 MLB playoffs get underway today with a quartet of Wild Card games including the #5 Kansas City Royals (86-76, 41-40 away) visiting the #4 Baltimore Orioles (91-71, 44-37 home) at Camden Yards at 4:08 pm ET.

The O’s have the luxury of trotting out 2021 NL Cy Young-winner Corbin Burnes (15-9, 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) in Game 1 while the Royals turn to promising young lefty Cole Ragans (11-9, 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP).

Burnes had an awful postseason last year while still with the Brewers, getting tagged for five runs on four hits (including three homers) and two walks in just 4.0 innings in a 6-3 loss to Arizona in his only start. But he had recorded a 1.33 ERA in his first 15 innings of playoff action prior.

Royals vs Orioles Game 1 Prediction & Picks

• Orioles moneyline (-146) at FanDuel
• Corbin Burnes over 4.5 Ks (-150) at DraftKings

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One of the big differences between the Game 1 starters is experience. That doesn’t just mean playoff experience, although Burnes leads there 19 innings to zero. The Baltimore ace also has a lot more experience pitching this many innings in a season.

This will mark the fourth straight year that Burnes has pitched at least 167 innings. The 26-year-old Ragans, however, had never pitched more than 71.2 innings in a season before this year, when he logged 186.1.

His two starts against Baltimore were night-and-day different. He shut down the O’s (no runs, one hit, seven Ks over 6.1 innings) in the first on April 3 but then was hammered for seven runs on nine hits in just 1.2 innings the second time the Baltimore lineup saw him on April 20.

Burnes was the opposing starter in both those games. He wasn’t great but he lasted 5.2 innings in each, surrendering five runs total on 13 hits and a walk.  The Orioles won both games (4-3, 9-7).

Burnes was electric in his final three starts of the regular season, allowing just one run over 19.0 innings with 24 Ks (at least seven in all three) and a miniscule 0.632 WHIP.

Kansas City is tied for the worst road record of any of the 12 playoff teams, going just 41-40 away from home. The Royals are just 2-9 in their last 11 road games against teams that made the postseason.

Look for the Orioles to break an eight-game postseason losing streak in Game 1 against a Kansas City team that hasn’t been in the postseason since winning the World Series in 2015.

Cole Ragans vs Corbin Burnes

While Burnes had more wins and a lower ERA in the regular season, the peripherals suggest Ragans had a better year. Both pitchers have an xERA of 3.27, while Ragans had an elite strikeout rate of 29.3%. Burnes’ K-rate of 23.1% was his lowest since his rookie season.

The Orioles head into the playoffs as the +1300 seventh-favorite in the World Series odds. The Royals are +3000 longshots.

Best Royals vs Orioles Odds

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With the Game 1 MLB odds only posted for about 12 hours, there is still a little variation in the Royals vs Orioles lines for Game 1. On the moneyline, the Orioles range from -155 to -146, with FanDuel currently offering the best price on an O’s victory. The Royals’ moneyline is as short as +128 and as long as +135 at ESPN Bet.

The total is sitting at 6.5 at almost all books with the over slightly favored. However, BetMGM has moved the total to 7.0 with the under priced at -120. The best price currently available on over 6.5 is -120 at DraftKings.

Also see:

• Tigers vs Astros Odds, Predictions & Picks for Game 1