Mike Trout’s 2019 AL MVP Odds Listed at -1000; Is DJ LeMahieu (+800) or Anyone Else Worth Betting?

• Now at -1000, Mike Trout has maintained his status as AL MVP favorite all season long
• DJ LeMahieu has the second-best odds, but he’s a distant +800
• Can anyone steal the award away from Trout?

We’ve spent a lot of time talking about how Mike Trout is a generational talent. One of a kind. A perennial MVP favorite.

But this might be his greatest feat yet.

With two months to go in the MLB season, Trout is the runaway favorite for AL MVP.

2019 AL MVP Odds

*Odds taken 08/02/2019

There’s not a lot of value there if you didn’t hop on Trout early … really early.

In fact, if you go over to our AL MVP Odds Tracker, you’ll notice the most value Trout offered was before the season. In March, he settled in at +250. He hasn’t been longer than +200 since May.

While it looks like a forgone conclusion that the Angels’ outfielder will win his third MVP, let’s dig a little deeper into the field.

Mike Trout vs AL MVP Competition

*All stats retrieved before games on 08/02/2019.

Ok, first things first: a lot of players are having really good seasons. In fact, if Trout didn’t exist, this would be a pretty exciting MVP race.

But Trout leads in five of the six categories listed, and he’s a runaway leader in four (HR, OBP, SLG%, WAR).

Mike Trout receives unanimous vote for AL MVP in recent poll of all 34 MLB writers. pic.twitter.com/Q1hMrtdXdu

— Halo Space (@HaloSpace) August 2, 2019

In terms of the MLB as a whole, Trout is third in home runs, second in RBI, third in slugging percentage, and first in OBP.

His WAR is second only to Cody Bellinger. They’re the only two players in the league with a WAR above 6.0.

Mike Trout’s Career Statistics

*Won AL MVP Award. **Bold indicates career high.

For fun, this is how Trout’s current season stacks up with the past five of his career, including his other two AL MVP campaigns (2014, 2016).

While he likely won’t set a new career-high in batting average, he’ll top 40 home runs for the second time in his career. He also could surpass the 111 RBI he collected in 2014, and post an OBP above .440 for the third time.

That combined with another season with a WAR around 10 and  likely a career-high in slugging percentage makes Trout nearly untouchable.

If Mike Trout Falls Off, Who Enters AL MVP Picture?

There are two names among the “longshots” (i.e. everyone not named Mike Trout) who generate interest, but only if Trout stumbles or gets hurt. They are Alex Bregman and Rafael Devers.

Bregman’s bulk power numbers don’t match up with the rest of the field, but he has the top OBP among the other five. He also has the third-best SLG%. Here’s how his first and second-halves match up.

Alex Bregman 1st Half vs 2nd Half

If he’s able to maintain that higher average on balls in play (BABIP) , his numbers will continue to increase. Throughout his career, he’s also been a better hitter during the second half so it seems likely that trend continues.

Rafael Devers’ Strong July

Devers is another player who is getting hot at the right time. The biggest thing will be maintaining his high batting average.

While all of his other numbers compare favorably with the other candidates, that’s where he separates himself. If he can stay around the top of the batting race, it’s an advantage he has over everyone other than LeMahieu.

Don’t Expect Mike Trout to Be Trumped for AL MVP

The +2500 price tag is a nice hedge in the event that something happens to Trout down the stretch. Going with either Bregman or Devers is a decent buy.

But, as is typical for him, Mike Trout is having a season for the ages that will force voters to take notice.

Unfortunately there’s no value there, so just sit back and enjoy.