Phillies vs Cubs Predictions, Picks & Starting Pitchers

• The Chicago Cubs host the struggling Philadelphia Phillies at Wrigley Field
• Would you bet on the home underdog seeking a series win after a 7-4 victory?
• You’ll have to keep scrolling to see my predictions, the latest odds, and starting pitchers

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The Philadelphia Phillies (8-15) are continuing their series against the Chicago Cubs (14-9) at Wrigley Field, with the action getting underway on April 23, 2026, at 2:20 PM ET. In their previous meeting just two days ago, the Cubs successfully defended their home turf with a 7-4 victory, fueled by a strong 12-hit offensive showcase. Despite the loss, the Phillies stayed competitive thanks to deep drives from elite sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.

Now, the Phillies enter this matchup as slight road favorites looking to bounce back.

Phillies vs Cubs Odds

Odds as of April 23, 2026, at 9:36 AM ET from BetMGM, Caesars, and DraftKings

Taking a look at the current MLB odds board, the Phillies are positioned as a moderate road favorite on the moneyline, while the Cubs present plus-money underdog value. At the current -122 moneyline price, the Phillies have a vig-free implied win probability of 54.95%, leaving the Cubs with a 49.50% chance to pull off the home upset.

The most notable story on the board revolves around the significant movement in the game’s total. Oddsmakers originally opened the total at a flat 8 runs, but a massive influx of betting action forced the line up a full run to 9. The moneyline has barely budged from its opening mark of Phillies -126 and Cubs +108.

Phillies vs Cubs Betting Splits & Trends

Analyzing the MLB public betting percentages for this National League showdown reveals some fascinating discrepancies. On the moneyline, the ticket count is relatively divided, with the Phillies drawing 59% of the betting slips. However, 84% of the total money wagered has come in on the Cubs. The sheer volume of capital backing the home team indicates that highly capitalized bettors see immense value in the North Siders at plus money.

When looking at the game total, bettors and big money are in lockstep. The Over has commanded 78% of the betting tickets and 73% of the overall financial stake.

Here are the most notable situational betting trends for today’s matchup:

• The Cubs have thrived when catching runs, winning 66.7% of their games as an underdog this season (4-2).
• The Phillies have completely failed to perform when set as underdogs, losing all four of their matchups in that role this year (0-4).
• The Cubs enter this contest scorching hot, winning 80.0% of their last 10 games (8-2).
• The Phillies have struggled mightily, posting a meager 20.0% win rate over their last 10 contests (2-8).
• The Over has hit in 70.0% of the Cubs’ last 10 games.

Phillies vs Cubs Injury Reports

Injuries can often be the hidden variable that swings a tightly contested baseball game. Both clubhouses are dealing with significant health issues.

The injury bug has taken a severe toll on the Phillies. Losing a foundational piece like J.T. Realmuto creates a massive void in a lineup already struggling to generate runs away from home. Furthermore, with ace Zack Wheeler out, the pressure on the rest of the staff is magnified. That pressure is compounded by a battered relief corps missing Jhoan Duran and potentially José Alvarado.

The Cubs are dealing with an extensive laundry list of pitching injuries, missing high-end talent like Justin Steele. Yet, despite this sheer volume of injuries, their “next man up” mentality has been incredibly effective. Their active relievers have collectively maintained a stellar 1.15 team WHIP to start the year.

Phillies vs Cubs Starting Pitchers

Cristopher Sánchez vs Edward Cabrera

This afternoon’s pitching matchup features a fascinating clash of styles. Cristopher Sánchez has been an absolute strikeout machine, generating an elite 12.39 K/9 rate over 28.1 innings. His underlying metrics strongly suggest his early-season dominance is completely sustainable. On the flip side, Edward Cabrera has relied heavily on managing contact, holding opponents to a .231 batting average across his 22.2 innings of work.

Furthermore, the Cubs hold a distinct late-game advantage. Their bullpen has been highly reliable with a 3.635 ERA, whereas the Phillies’ battered relief corps carries an inflated 4.517 ERA. While the sharp money heavily aligns with this read, my primary justification remains the glaring offensive and bullpen mismatches.

Phillies vs Cubs Predictions and Picks

The Pick: Cubs Moneyline (+102 at DraftKings)

When evaluating the board, backing the Cubs as a home underdog presents exceptional betting value. Despite the Phillies entering as a slight road favorite, the underlying offensive metrics heavily favor the home team. The Cubs have been far more productive at the plate this season, plating 5.00 runs per game at home with a .744 OPS. Conversely, the Phillies are scoring a meager 3.00 runs per game on the road—the third-worst mark in baseball.

The Pick: Under 9 (-105 at Caesars)

Turning to the game total, the Under is my most logical play. Sánchez boasts a microscopic 1.59 ERA, while Cabrera carries a 2.38 ERA. With two dominant arms taking the mound, scoring opportunities will be heavily restricted early on. I am comfortable bucking the overwhelming public consensus that hammered the Over to back the arms in this matchup.

Odds as of April 23, 2026, at 9:36 AM ET from Caesars and DraftKings