Phillies vs Mets Predictions, Picks & Best Odds for Game 3 (Oct. 8)

• Tied at one in the NLDS, the Phillies and Mets meet in a pivotal Game 3 in New York on Tuesday
• Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies against Sean Manaea for the Mets
• See the Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets predictions, picks, and best odds for Game 3

The Philadelphia Phillies (95-67, 41-40 away) picked up a much-needed win over the New York Mets (89-73, 46-35 home) on Sunday to tie their best-of-five NLDS at one game apiece. On Tuesday, the series shifts to the Big Apple for Game 3 at 5:08 pm ET. The Phillies vs Mets Game 2 odds are nearly a pick’em with most sportsbooks listing the Phillies as slight -115 favorites and the Mets at roughly -105 in Tuesday’s MLB odds.

Phillies vs Mets Predictions

• Phillies first 5 innings (-116) at FanDuel
• Nola over 5.5 Ks (-105) at ESPN Bet

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Veteran Aaron Nola gets the ball for the Phillies against Sean Manaea for the Mets. While both have playoff experience, there’s a big gap in how much. Nola has pitched 48.2 innings for the Phillies over their deep postseason runs in 2022 and 2023. He boasts a respectable postseason ERA of 3.70.

Manaea has just 12.1 playoff innings on his resume, with five of those coming in the Mets three-game 2024 Wild Card victory over the Brewers. While he was fairly effective against Milwaukee (5.0 IP, 6H, 2R, 4K, 0BB), that only managed to lower his playoff ERA to an eye-popping 10.66.

Manaea also has a brutal track record against the current Philly hitters. In 97 total ABs, they have a .309 average and 1.027 OPS with ten home runs (led by three from Game 2 hero Nick Castellanos).

Nola doesn’t have a great history against the Mets hitters but it is better than Manaea’s, and the sample size is roughly triple: in 242 total ABs, the Mets batters have a .272 average and .777 OPS against the 31-year-old righty.

I’m also backing the over on Nola’s strikeout props because of how well he was dealing down the stretch in the regular season. In his final four starts, Nola had at least seven Ks, and he piled up 30 total in just 22.1 innings.

PHI vs NYM Game 3 Pitchers: Nola vs Manaea

Best Phillies vs Mets Odds for Game 3

The Phillies vs Mets odds, across all sportsbooks, have both teams shorter than even-money to win. The best odds bettors can currently find for a Phillies win is -110 at BetMGM. The best odds for a Mets victory are -105, which can be found at a handful of books, including bet365, Caesars, and ESPN Bet.

Not coincidentally, BetMGM also has the best price on the Phillies’ runline, offering Philly -1.5 at +165 odds. The best odds for Mets +1.5 are at bet365 and DraftKings, where Philadelphia is -185.

The total is 7.0 almost across the board with the over favored. The outlier is ESPN Bet, which always lists MLB totals with a hook. ESPN Bet has the total at 7.5 but with the under pretty heavily favored at -135.

The MLB public betting splits for Tuesday show bettors are almost evenly split on Phillies/Mets. The Phillies are getting 51% of moneyline bets with the Mets getting 49%. There is more consensus on the run total with 89% of handle on over 7.0 runs.