Phillies vs Pirates Picks & Props to Bet for Wheeler vs Skenes

• Philadelphia looks for the sweep
• Strikeouts should be plentiful
• Continue reading for my Phillies vs Pirates picks

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The Philadelphia Phillies (23-23) and Pittsburgh Pirates (24-22) are continuing their series on Sunday, May 17, with a 1:35 PM EST first pitch at PNC Park. The Phillies enter this matchup as road underdogs, looking to build momentum after a decisive 6-0 shutout victory over the Pirates in their previous outing. In that contest, Cristopher Sanchez twirled a 13-strikeout shutout.

Conversely, the Pirates are eager to bounce back from a lifeless offensive showing where they were held scoreless on just six hits. This matchup features an excellent pitching duel, with reigning Cy Young Paul Skenes toeing the rubber for Pittsburgh and veteran Zack Wheeler getting the nod for Philadelphia.

Phillies vs Pirates Prediction & Picks

• Under 7.5 (-135, theScore Bet)

Skenes has been incredibly efficient on the mound. The third-year ace carries a 1.98 ERA, a 0.64 WHIP, and a .145 opponent batting average across 50.0 innings. He matches up against a Phillies lineup struggling for consistent run production, hitting just .235 with a .695 OPS and 193 total runs. The cold start for the Phillies has knocked them from 89.5 wins to 85 wins according to the 2026 MLB Win Totals.

Wheeler has been sharp in his four starts since returning from thoracic outlet syndrome. He has three straight quality starts and has allowed no more than three runs in any contest all year. Last time out, he pitched into the eighth, allowing one run at Fenway Park.

• Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140, BetMGM)
• Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+106, DraftKings)

I also see significant value in the strikeout prop markets. Skenes is averaging 10.08 K/9 this season. Given Philadelphia’s offensive inconsistencies, backing Skenes is a strong play backed by recent data. Skenes is the front-runner according to 2026 NL Cy Young odds.

Getting plus-money on an established ace is rare. Wheeler is posting 8.03 K/9 and holding opponents to a .195 batting average. While Wheeler has only hit this mark once this year, he has a 91st-percentile chase rate and an above-average whiff rate this season.

Zack Wheeler vs Paul Skenes

Skenes is minimizing dangerous contact at an elite rate. His 10.08 K/9 and impeccable command, featuring just 1.26 walks per nine innings, drive his early-season success. A 2.50 FIP proves his production is sustainable, as he routinely misses bats and avoids issuing free passes. His Baseball Savant page is a work of art – every category is in the 57th percentile or better.

Across the diamond, Wheeler boasts an undefeated 2-0 record with a 2.55 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. Yielding just 2.19 walks per nine innings, he consistently works deeper into games than his rookie counterpart, averaging 6.17 innings per start. His 2.69 FIP closely aligns with his actual ERA.

Team Stats Comparison & Betting Trends

Pittsburgh is plating 5.60 runs per game in front of their home crowd, ranking second among all home offenses. This production is fueled by a league-leading .278 home batting average and a .796 OPS. They keep the line moving and consistently avoid empty at-bats.

Conversely, Philadelphia averages just 3.77 runs per game away from Citizens Bank Park. Their .215 road batting average and .625 road OPS both rank 29th. However, their 89.8 mph average road exit velocity ranks second in the majors, indicating they are making hard contact.

Situational Betting Trends

• The Phillies are 18-11 (62.1%) as moneyline favorites this season.
• The Phillies are 4-9 (30.8%) as moneyline underdogs this season.
• The Pirates are 18-10 (64.3%) as moneyline favorites this season.
• The Pirates are 5-9 (35.7%) as moneyline underdogs this season.
• The Under has hit in 37.0% of Pirates games this season.
• The Phillies are 5-2 (71.4%) as favorites over their last 10 games.
• The Pirates are 1-3 (25.0%) as underdogs over their last 10 games.

Phillies vs Pirates Odds & Public Betting Splits

Pittsburgh enters this matchup as a moderate home favorite, while Philadelphia offers underdog value at +118. The opening spread established the Pirates at -1.5 (+155) and has remained stationary leading up to game day. The total opened at 7 runs with the Over juiced slightly to -115 and the Under at -105.

Odds as of 10:45 AM ET, from BetMGM.

Analyzing the moneyline market reveals a clear preference for the home team. The Pirates command 59.7% of betting tickets, but they hold a staggering 83.3% of the total moneyline handle. This massive gap indicates that larger, sharper wagers are overwhelmingly backing Pittsburgh, which aligns comfortably with my official prediction.

The total market tells a different story. Despite two elite starting pitchers on the mound, the Over dominates with 73.6% of tickets and 80.5% of the total money. I am choosing to fade this heavy public consensus. Taking the Under provides a mathematical edge when backing two strikeout-heavy pitchers.

Injury Report & Betting Impact

The most notable recent development involves outfielder Ryan O’Hearn, who exited Saturday’s contest with right quad discomfort. If he is unavailable, Pittsburgh loses a valuable bat in an outfield rotation already missing Jake Mangum. Coupled with catcher Joey Bart remaining sidelined, Pittsburgh’s lineup depth and late-game flexibility are noticeably thinner.

Philadelphia enters with a fully healthy starting lineup, but their bullpen is taking the brunt of their injury woes. Relievers Kyle Backhus, Zach Pop, and Max Lazar are all parked on the injured list. This leaves fewer setup options once Wheeler’s day concludes.

If Wheeler runs into high pitch counts early, the coaching staff may be forced to stretch out their remaining relievers. However, given his history of pitching deep into games, I expect Philadelphia to rely heavily on their ace to mitigate these bullpen absences.