Expert Picks, Props & How to Watch Pirates vs Cardinals (May 21)

• The Pirates and Cardinals split their first two games
• Last night, Pittsburgh blanked the Cards
• Continue reading for my Pirates vs Cardinals expert picks

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (25-24) look to build on yesterday’s 7-0 shutout victory as they wrap up their series against the St. Louis Cardinals (28-20) at Busch Stadium. With first pitch scheduled for 1:15 PM ET on May 21, 2026, I am eyeing several betting angles for this afternoon’s clash.

The Pirates bring offensive momentum into this matchup. They recorded 15 hits yesterday, with rookie Konnor Griffin nabbing four of them. Now, the Pirates hand the ball to one of their most reliable arms, aiming to secure another victory as a road favorite against a struggling Cardinals rotation.

While the Cardinals sit comfortably above .500, their pitching staff faces statistical hurdles today. I will break down the pitching mismatch, analyze situational trends, and highlight my top betting targets for this National League Central showdown.

Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction & Best Bets

• Pirates Moneyline (-130, Fanatics)

When evaluating the starting pitching mismatch in this contest, my clear betting edge points toward the visiting Pirates on the moneyline. The Pirates hand the ball to Braxton Ashcraft, who has been highly effective on the mound. Ashcraft boasts a 3.09 ERA and a crisp 1.05 WHIP across 55.1 innings.

Conversely, the Cardinals trot out Dustin May. May has struggled with consistency, entering the contest with an elevated 4.81 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Opposing batters are making solid contact, hitting for a .292 average against him. The Cardinals also carry a vulnerable bullpen with a 4.53 ERA.

Looking into the NL Central, the Pirates are third in odds to win the NL Central, while the Cardinals are in fifth place. Even in a highly competitive division, bettors are near-universally backing the Cubs or Brewers to prevail over the Pirates, Cardinals, or Reds.

• Braxton Ashcraft Over 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (-175, Caesars)

Ashcraft has been a highly efficient strikeout pitcher this season, posting an elite 9.11 K/9 rate. Furthermore, he averages a sturdy 6.15 innings per start. If he simply pitches to his season averages this afternoon, he projects to comfortably eclipse five strikeouts.

Ashcraft has hit this line in eight of nine starts. There is also value in taking him to strike out 6+ or even 7+ as he has accomplished both of those feats multiple times. He had seven strikeouts in his first matchup with the Cardinals back in April.

• Oneil Cruz To Record A Hit (-180, DraftKings)

If you want a safer prop to attack, Oneil Cruz to record a hit provides a solid floor. Cruz leads the Pirates with 35 runs scored and 33 RBIs, carrying a .259 average into Busch Stadium. Against May’s .292 opponent batting average, Cruz is in a prime position to produce.

Cruz has 51 hits in 47 games. He has a hit in 33 of 47 contests, a 70.2% conversion rate/

• Over 7.5 Runs (+100, Fanatics)

The Pirates feature ample power, led by Cruz’s 10 home runs, and an overall team OPS of .659 on the road. May’s tendency to allow traffic on the basepaths should give the Pirates scoring opportunities early in the game. Neither team has a particular excellent bullpen.

Braxton Ashcraft vs Dustin May

Ashcraft has been a steady, reliable presence in the Pirates rotation. Through nine starts, the right-hander has posted a 3.19 FIP, indicating his success is statistically supported. He excels at missing bats while limiting free passes (2.28 BB/9). Averaging 6.15 innings per start provides a massive boost to the bullpen.

On the other side, May has labored through a turbulent start to his 2026 campaign. Over his first nine outings, May carries a 3-4 record. Traffic on the basepaths remains a recurring issue for the righty. His lower strikeout rate (6.47 K/9) means he relies heavily on his defense to generate outs.

How to Watch Pirates vs Cardinals

Pirates vs Cardinals will be available on Cardinals.TV and SportsNet Pittsburgh. Outside local markets, fans can watch the game on MLB.TV.

Pirates vs Cardinals Odds & Public Betting Trends

The Pirates enter this afternoon’s contest as -125 moneyline favorites on the road. This line accurately reflects the significant pitching advantage they hold with Ashcraft on the mound. Conversely, the Cardinals are positioned as +105 home underdogs. Bettors must lay considerable juice (-160) for the safety of the +1.5 runline.

When looking at the opening numbers, the runline has remained stationary at 1.5. However, the most notable line movement occurred in the total runs market. The total originally opened at 7.5 but has been pushed up to eight before settling back at 7.5.

Odds as of May 21, 2026, at 3:25 AM UTC from Caesars Sportsbook.

A notable 90.5% of total tickets and 93.8% of the overall stake in the totals market back the Over. With the public largely fading May, sportsbooks elevated the total to mitigate their liability against a potential high-scoring breakout from the Pirates.

The moneyline market features an intriguing divide between ticket volume and overall handle. The Pirates draw a slight majority of public tickets, with 52.6% of betting slips backing the road favorites. However, the Cardinals command a significant 63.0% of the overall money.

While this discrepancy falls short of a sharp vs public situation, it remains a notable split for MLB public betting splits. The heavier wagers back the Cardinals as home underdogs, likely relying on their offense. By backing the Pirates, I am aligning with the ticket majority but fading the larger share of the money.

Team Trends

Regarding team trends, the Pirates handle business when favored this season, winning 62.1% of their games (18-11) as the betting favorite. Meanwhile, backing low-scoring games has been risky for Pirates bettors, as the Under has cashed in just 38.8% of their games this season.

For the Cardinals, the Over has hit in only 37.5% of their games this season. Over their last 10 games, the Under has hit at a 70.0% clip, with the Over cashing just 20.0% of the time. However, I expect today’s pitching mismatch to buck that recent trend.

Cardinals vs Pirates Injury Report

Navigating the injured list remains a key factor for managers Oliver Marmol and Derek Shelton. The Pirates enter the contest with four players dealing with active injuries, while the Cardinals have two players sidelined. Here is the current injury report for both teams ahead of the matchup:

For the Cardinals, operating without Lars Nootbaar continues to test their outfield depth. Without his left-handed presence, the Cardinals must rely heavily on their right-handed power bats against a right-handed starter. Ramón Urías’s placement on the 10-day IL limits their flexibility in the infield.

On the other side, the Pirates are missing some supplemental punch. The loss of outfielder Ryan O’Hearn removes a potential scoring threat from the order. Coupled with catcher Joey Bart’s absence, the Pirates must lean heavily on the top of their lineup to manufacture runs against May.

While Jared Jones is a notable long-term loss to the rotation, the short-term absence of Chris Devenski removes a reliable arm from the bullpen. If Ashcraft cannot pitch deep into his 6.15-inning average, the Pirates’ middle relief could be tested in the late innings.