Predictions, Picks & Props to Bet in Reds vs Mets (May 25)

• It’s a Memorial Day matchup as the New York Mets host the Cincinnati Reds
• The value play could be taking Juan Soto over 1.5 total bases
• See the latest odds, injury reports, and predictions for this National League

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The Cincinnati Reds (27-25) travel to Queens to open a new series against the New York Mets (22-30) at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM ET on Monday, May 25, 2026.

Both squads enter this matchup riding momentum. The home favorite Mets recently edged the cross-town Yankees 7-6, fueled by an 11-hit offensive showcase. Meanwhile, the road underdog Reds look to build on a 9-4 win over the Phillies, a game where their bats erupted for 15 hits.

Despite a sub-.500 records, New York commands respect in the betting market. The Reds offer live underdog value as they build their playoff resume. I will be watching closely to see whether Cincinnati can disrupt Mets probable starter Nolan McLean or whether New York can tee off against Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo.

Reds vs Mets Predictions & Picks

The Mets enter Game 1 with a decisive advantage on the mound, creating an uphill battle for the visiting Reds. Mets probable starter Nolan McLean tosses an elite 10.71 strikeouts per nine innings with a 3.57 ERA.

Conversely, the Reds turn to Nick Lodolo, who struggles with consistency. In 15.0 innings, Lodolo holds a 7.20 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP while surrendering 2.40 home runs per nine frames. Given New York holds a collective 3.84 staff ERA compared to Cincinnati’s 4.80 mark, the pitching mismatch is stark.

Here are my official Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets picks:

• Moneyline: New York Mets (-155 at DraftKings)
• Total: Over 7.5 Runs (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
• Player Prop: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135 at BetMGM)
• Player Prop: Nolan McLean Over 7.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (+110 at Bet365)

I am taking the Mets straight up. McLean misses bats consistently, while Lodolo gives up too much hard contact. Backing McLean to eclipse his strikeout total is a strong value play given Cincinnati’s strikeout tendencies.

Overall, Cincinnati has been involved in several shootouts recently. The Over is hitting in 70.0% of their last 10 matchups. Given Lodolo’s susceptibility to the long ball, projecting a productive offensive showing for New York makes betting the Over a logical angle.

Odds as of May 25 2026, at 12:29 PM ET from BetMGM, Bet365, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings

Reds vs Mets Matchup Stats & Analysis

Nick Lodolo vs Nolan McLean

McLean brings a 3.57 ERA and a 3.19 FIP into this start, suggesting he pitches even better than his baseline metrics indicate. He limits baserunners effectively, maintaining a stingy 2.64 walks per nine innings while holding opponents to a .204 batting average. It’s important to consult MLB batter vs pitchers stats when you’re building parlays.

Lodolo is hoping to reverse his early-season woes. He struggles with severe command issues, posting an alarming 5.40 walks per nine innings alongside a suppressed 6.60 K/9. When opponents make contact, they do damage, making his matchup against New York dangerous.

Situational Team Stats Comparison

The tale of the tape highlights a significant disparity in run prevention. Despite holding a superior overall record, Cincinnati surrenders 5.06 runs per game. By contrast, New York yields just 4.28 runs per game with a crisp 1.29 WHIP. See how Citi Field could impact this matchup with our MLB park factors page.

New York pitchers miss bats at a much higher rate, striking out 9.22 batters per nine innings compared to Cincinnati’s 7.78. At the plate, both squads produce identical .233 batting averages in these splits. However, New York makes harder contact at Citi Field, boasting an 88.9 mph average exit velocity.

Given Cincinnati’s underlying pitching vulnerabilities, New York is positioned to capitalize on run-scoring opportunities. This justifies my play on Juan Soto’s total bases prop.

Reds vs Mets Odds & Betting Trends

Odds as of May 25, 2026, at 12:34 PM ET from BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings

MLB odds have New York positioned as a clear home favorite, laying -156 on the moneyline. Visiting Cincinnati enters as a road underdog, offering +129 odds for an outright upset. Taking the 1.5 runs with Cincinnati is heavily juiced to -165 on the runline.

The opening spread was set at 1.5, and the opening total was established at 7.5 runs. Neither the runline nor the game total has moved. The moneyline has also held perfectly steady from its opening marks.

Here are some notable betting trends to consider for this matchup:

• New York has struggled significantly when catching odds, posting a 4-11 record (26.7%) as an underdog.
• The Over has cashed in just 37.7% of New York games overall this year.
• Cincinnati has been involved in several shootouts, with the Over hitting in 70.0% of their last 10 matchups.
• The Under has cashed in on only 30.8% of Cincinnati’s games this season.

Reds vs Mets Public Betting Splits

The MLB public betting percentages show heavy confidence in the home favorites. Currently, 67% of moneyline tickets are backing New York, and 51% of the total stake is on them.

Because both the ticket percentage and the money percentage heavily favor New York, there is no sharp divide between the public and the market. Casual bettors and larger bankrolls are in total agreement on the home side.

A similar narrative unfolds in the total runs market. The Over garnered 24% of the tickets and commands 82% of the overall money.

With both the tickets and the money heavily concentrated on the Over, there is no discrepancy to exploit.

Reds vs Mets Injury Report

Injuries are poised to play a massive role in shaping this series opener. New York navigates 14 active injuries, while Cincinnati deals with six sidelined players.

New York enters Game 1 severely banged up. Outfielder Juan Soto missed his last game with an illness, leaving his status murky. Bettors must monitor starting lineups closely. If Soto is scratched, his props will be voided, and New York’s offensive ceiling will drop significantly.

Compounding these issues is the prolonged absence of key everyday players like Francisco Lindor and Luis Robert Jr. This sheer volume of firepower missing forces New York to rely heavily on its depth.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati misses critical defensive pieces. Ke’Bryan Hayes and Jose Trevino leave voids at the hot corner and behind the plate. With Lodolo already struggling to limit baserunners, a weakened defense adds immediate pressure.