Predictions & Player-Prop Picks for Orioles vs Blue Jays

• Back the Blue Jays to beat the Orioles tonight as the two begin a new series
• Toronto starter Trey Yesavage boasts a 2.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP so far this season
• Keep reading for the predictions and player prop picks for Orioles vs Blue Jays, below

The Toronto Blue Jays host the Baltimore Orioles tonight, with first pitch set for 7:07 PM ET at the Rogers Centre. Both clubs enter this contest with identical 29-33 records, looking to gain ground in the crowded AL East standings.

The Orioles hit the diamond as road underdogs in the MLB odds, following an 8-2 victory over the Boston Red Sox yesterday. The home-favorite Blue Jays return to action after a 7-2 win over the Atlanta Braves to avoid being swept.

Below, I’ll break down my favorite predictions and player prop picks for Game 1 of the Orioles vs Blue Jays three-game series in Toronto.

Predictions for Orioles vs Blue Jays

• Moneyline Pick: Toronto Blue Jays (-155 via DraftKings)
• Over/Under Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-105 via DraftKings)

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

He faces Brandon Young, who carries a 3.35 ERA but struggles with traffic on the basepaths, evidenced by a 1.37 WHIP. Toronto’s pitching staff boasts a 3.91 collective ERA, significantly outperforming Baltimore’s 4.63 team ERA.

I’m also betting under 8.5 runs. Both starters possess sub-3.35 ERAs in the MLB starting lineups, creating a foundation for a low-scoring game. Offensively, Toronto struggles to generate extra-base hits, recording a .382 team slugging percentage and a .135 isolated power mark.

Baltimore brings more power, but Yesavage’s elite strikeout metrics and the fact that he hasn’t allowed a home run over his last 10 appearances should actively suppress scoring opportunities.

Brandon Young vs Trey Yesavage Stats

Yesavage provides a reliable presence for Toronto. His 2.19 ERA is fully backed by a 2.44 FIP mark. He has limited opposing hitters to a .202 batting average. His only minor blemish is a 4.14 BB/9 rate, but his swing-and-miss stuff mitigates the free passes.

Young’s peripheral metrics suggest he consistently pitches out of trouble. His 1.37 WHIP indicates plenty of base traffic, and his 4.32 FIP sits nearly a full run higher than his surface-level ERA. His 6.91 K/9 means he relies heavily on batted ball luck and defense. Based on that evidence, he could be in line for some negative regression.

Orioles vs Blue Jays Stats

The most glaring takeaway is the massive disparity between average exit velocity and actual run production for Baltimore. They lead baseball in road exit velocity (90.2 mph) but languish near the bottom in runs per game (4.03) away from Camden Yards. This suggests they are lining out to defenders or struggling with runners in scoring position.

Conversely, Toronto’s pitching staff boasts a collective 3.91 ERA, good for 10th in the majors. This organizational strength aligns perfectly with Yesavage’s run-suppression identity.

Offensively, Toronto has been average at home, despite playing in a hitter friendly venue per the MLB park factors. They rely heavily on methodical run creation instead of the long ball. This approach frequently relies on Guerrero Jr putting the ball in play to advance runners.

Odds for Orioles vs Blue Jays

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US), 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET UP TO
$1,500 BACK

IN BONUS BETS!

BET NOW

Player Prop Picks for Orioles vs Blue Jays

Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (-160 via DraftKings) is my primary MLB props bet tonight. Yesavage consistently misses bats, and his 9.49 K/9 rate makes this highly attainable against a lineup that has struck out 562 times overall.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases (+104 via DraftKings), I also see value in Guerrero Jr over 1.5 total bases, as he paces the Toronto offense with a .293 average. Per the MLB batter vs pitcher stats, he’s a career .400 hitter versus Young.

Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Hits (-200 via DraftKings) serves as a high-probability secondary play, given his .246 average and 12 home runs for Baltimore.