Predictions & Player Prop Picks for Phillies vs Mets on June 28

• The Phillies are road favorites (ML: -145) for this series finale at Citi Field in Phillies vs Mets game odds
• I’m targeting Phillies vs Mets player props instead of traditional plays like the moneyline or the over/under in runs
• Check out my best player props on Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and more on Phillies vs Mets

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The New York Mets continue their series against the Philadelphia Phillies following a 6-2 upset victory in the previous contest. Despite dropping that game, the Phillies enter the June 28 afternoon clash at Citi Field as -145 moneyline road favorites on Caesars. I see tremendous value on the prop board today.

First pitch for this Phillies vs Mets game is at 1:40 p.m. ET at Citi Field in Queens, NY. Here are some of my top Phillies vs Mets player props for Sunday’s contest.

Phillies vs Mets Player Props and Picks

My first target is Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+119 on Caesars). Harper is posting a massive .536 slugging percentage this season, fueled by 35 extra-base hits (19 HR, 14 2B, 2 3B). Over 83 games, he averages 1.88 total bases per contest. The math heavily supports this plus-money spot.

Next, I am backing Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-144 on FanDuel). The southpaw flashes a dominant 10.7 K/9 rate with an elite 28.1% strikeout percentage. New York is missing Luis Robert Jr. and Marcus Semien, drastically shortening their lineup and providing Luzardo a clear path to punch out at least seven batters.

Finally, I love Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Runs Scored (-134 on DraftKings). Schwarber is an on-base machine, boasting a .370 OBP with 51 walks in 79 games. He averages 0.65 runs scored per game. With Harper hitting behind him, Schwarber simply needs to reach base to cash this ticket.

My Top Prop Picks & SGP:

• Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+119 on Caesars)
• Jesús Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-144 on FanDuel)
• Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Runs Scored (-134 on DraftKings)

Phillies vs Mets: Lineup History vs Opposing Starter

Historical batter-versus-pitcher data provides a massive edge when projecting specific outcomes. Today, the starting pitching matchup features Cionel Perez (1-0) for New York and Jesus Luzardo (6-4) for Philadelphia.

Phillies Batters vs Cionel Pérez

Mets Batters vs Jesús Luzardo

Harper and Schwarber absolutely own Perez. Harper carries a flawless 1.000 batting average across five at-bats, including two extra-base hits and a bomb. Schwarber adds a .500 slash line with a home run of his own. This specific history validates my confidence in their hitting props today.

On the Mets side, Juan Soto owns a .350 average over a robust 20 at-bat sample size against Luzardo, launching one home run. Conversely, Mark Vientos looks lost against the left-hander. Vientos suffers from a 40% strikeout rate in this matchup, striking out six times in 15 at-bats while managing a meager .133 average.

Phillies vs Mets Player-Prop Odds

Finding the best number is critical for long-term profitability. Below are the current hitting and pitching prop lines available across major sportsbooks.

MLB Hitting Props

(Note: Home Run odds via FanDuel; Hits and Total Bases odds via Caesars)

Schwarber is the odds-on favorite to go yard at +265 on FanDuel. The market heavily juices Trea Turner and Alec Bohm to record a hit at -250 on Caesars. As discussed earlier, getting Harper at +119 to clear 1.5 total bases is the premier value spot on the board.

Phillies vs Mets: MLB Pitching Props

(Note: Strikeouts odds via FanDuel; Total Outs odds via Caesars)

Oddsmakers anticipate a deep run from Luzardo, juicing his total outs over to -193 on Caesars. His strikeout line sits at 6.5, with the over favored at -144 on FanDuel.

Phillies vs Mets: Game Odds & Market Context

Odds as of June 28 at 4:20 AM ET from Caesars.

Injuries are severely impacting these lines. New York has starting pitchers Clay Holmes and Tylor Megill on the 60-day IL, forcing immense pressure onto a tired bullpen. Philadelphia misses Adolis Garcia (lat) and Johan Rojas (elbow), yet remains favored due to their superior season record and rotational health. With weather details unavailable, I am letting the raw statistical profiles dictate my investments today.