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Reds vs Pirates Picks & Odds (Sep. 28)

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

Updated Sep 27, 2022 · 8:07 PM PDT

Reds vs Pirates odds
Sep 26, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Zack Collins (6) gets back to second base on a pickoff attempt as Cincinnati Reds shortstop Jose Barrero (2) takes the throw during the fifth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
  • Pittsburgh is a -120 home favorite over Cincinnati in the Reds vs Pirates odds for Wednesday, Sep. 28
  • It’s the seventh game in a row that the Pirates are favored
  • Pittsburgh was the chalk just 21 times through the first 149 games of the MLB season

As they play host to the Cincinnati Reds (60-95, 29-48 away), the Pittsburgh Pirates (58-97, 31-46 home) again find themselves in the unusual position of being the team to beat.

Wrapping up a three-game home series against Cincinnati, the Pirates are listed as the -120 home favorites over the Reds. Last place in the NL Central, Pittsburgh is favored for the seventh successive game. The Pirates are 3-3 against the runline so far in this span.

Pittsburgh was the chalk just 21 times through the first 149 games of the MLB season. Against the Reds this season, the Pirates are 5-6 ATR as the favorite. They’re 3-3 ATR as the underdog.

Reds vs Pirates Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Cincinnati Reds +100 +1.5 (-195) O 8 (-115)
Pittsburgh Pirates -120 -1.5 (+162) U 8 (-105)

Odds as of September 27 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get Caesars Sportsbook bonus code.

At moneyline odds of -120, the Pirates have an implied probability of victory of 54.55% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on Pittsburgh would create a payout of $18.30.

 

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The MLB lineups  will be set for the first pitch at PNC Park for 12:35 pm ET on Wednesday, September 28. The weather forecast is calling for rain with 6 mph wind and a temperature of 56 degrees.

MLB betting trends are showing that 86% of the public betting splits on the moneyline and runline are with the Reds. There’s 57 % of public money going with the under in the total.

Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh Probable Pitchers

Since joining the starting rotation on a full-time basis in late August, Reds right-hander Luis Cessa is 1-3 through seven starts. He’s allowed seven earned runs and three home runs over his past 15.1 innings of work.

Cessa took the loss in a 6-1 setback to the Pirates in the first game of a doubleheader on September 13. Pittsburgh hitters touched the Cincinnati righty for five earned runs and three homers over 5.2 innings pitched.

Cessa is 0-1 with a 4.82 ERA in four appearances against Pittsburgh this season. Over his career, Cessa is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in eight appearances.

On the road, Cessa is 3-2 with a 3.11 ERA in 24 appearances this season, including five starts. In day games, Cessa is 2-2 with a 3.30 ERA in 17 trips to the mound.

Cessa vs Wilson Stats

Luis Cessa
VS
Bryse Wilson
4-4 Record 3-9
4.78 ERA 5.95
4.55 xERA 5.81
1.35 WHIP 1.49
2.12 SO/W Ratio 2.48

Pirates right-hander Bryse Wilson is 3-5 since opening the season 0-4. He’s allowed at least three earned runs in nine of his past 11 starts. Wilson is 1-1 with a 5.32 ERA in September.

Wilson rates among the bottom 1% of MLB hurlers in xBA (.299). He’s also in the bottom 3% in exit velocity (99.1), xSLG (.490), xwOBA (.366), xwOBAcon (.407), and xERA (5.81). You’ll also find Wilson located in the lower 6% in wOBA (.269), the bottom 7% in strikeout percentage (15.5) and the bottom 9% in hard hit percentage (.444).

The Pittsburgh righty has allowed 12 home runs over his past 48 innings of work. That amounts to 2.25 home runs per nine innings. Wilson is 1-1 with a 3.26 ERA in three starts against the Reds this season. He got the win in a 6-3 verdict on September 12, allowing three earned runs over 5.2 innings of work.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Pirates Batters Batting Average vs Cessa Reds Batters Batting Average vs Wilson
Rodolfo Castro .200 Aristides Aquino .500
Oneil Cruz .333 Jose Barrero .500
Ben Gamel .200 TJ Friedl .333
Ke’Bryan Hayes .200 Jonathan India .200
Cal Mitchell .333 Alejo Lopez .333
Bryan Reynolds .400 Spencer Steer .333

Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds is 2-for-5 (.400) with a homer and two RBI when facing Cessa. Cal Mitchell is 1-for-3 (.333) with a homer and two RBI. Oneil Cruz is 1-for-3 (.333). Ke’Bryan Hayes is 1-for-5 (.200). The hit was a solo homer.

Cincinnati’s Aristides Aquino is 1-for-2 (.500), a solo dinger, with two RBI against Wilson. Jose Barrero is 2-for-4 (.500). TJ Friedl is 2-for-6 (.333) with a solo homer. Spencer Steer and Alejo Lopez are both 1-for-3 (.333). Lopez has driven in a run.

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Reds vs Pirates Prediction

The Reds are skidding to the finish line. Cincinnati is 4-15 straight up over the past 19 games. But the Reds are 7-9 SU in their last 16 road games.

The Pirates are 15-12 SU when the betting favorite this season. Pittsburgh is 3-9 SU over the past 12 games. The Pirates are 5-10 SU in their past 16 home games. But they’re 6-0 SU in the past six games against the Reds.

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-120)

 

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